TEMPE, Ariz. — March 1, 2024 — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in February for the 16th consecutive month following one month of “unchanged” status (a PMI® reading of 50 percent) and 28 months of growth prior to that, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The Manufacturing PMI registered 47.8 percent in February, down 1.3 percentage points from the 49.1 percent recorded in January. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 46th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index moved back into contraction territory at 49.2 percent, 3.3 percentage points lower than the 52.5 percent recorded in January. The February reading of the Production Index (48.4 percent) is 2 percentage points lower than January’s figure of 50.4 percent. The Prices Index registered 52.5 percent, down 0.4 percentage point compared to the reading of 52.9 percent in January. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 46.3 percent, 1.6 percentage points higher than the 44.7 percent recorded in January. The Employment Index registered 45.9 percent, down 1.2 percentage points from January’s figure of 47.1 percent.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index figure of 50.1 percent is 1 percentage point higher than the 49.1 percent recorded in January. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.) The Inventories Index decreased 0.9 percentage point to 45.3 percent from January’s reading of 46.2 percent.

“The New Export Orders Index reading of 51.6 percent is 6.4 percentage points higher than January’s figure of 45.2 percent. The Imports Index continued in expansion territory, registering 53 percent, 2.9 percentage points higher than the 50.1 percent reported in January. Both indexes reported their highest readings since July 2022, when the New Export Orders Index registered 52.6 percent and the Imports Index 54.4 percent.”

Fiore continues, “The U.S. manufacturing sector continued to contract (and at a faster rate compared to January), with demand slowing, output easing and inputs remaining accommodative. Demand moderated, with the (1) New Orders Index back in contraction as seasonal headwinds were too strong to overcome, (2) New Export Orders Index returned to expansion and (3) Backlog of Orders Index improving but still in moderate contraction territory. The Customers’ Inventories Index contracted for the third consecutive month, remaining accommodative for future production. Output (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) dropped, with a combined 3.2-percentage point downward impact on the Manufacturing PMI® calculation. Panelists’ companies maintained their production levels month over month, but that growth could not outpace seasonal factors. Head-count reductions continued in February, with notable layoff activity noted. Inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — continued to accommodate future demand growth but again showed signs of stiffening. The Supplier Deliveries Index improved again, moving into ‘slower’ territory, and the Inventories Index slid back due to inability for growth consistent with seasonal factors, remaining in moderate contraction territory. The Prices Index remained in moderate expansion (or ‘increasing’) territory as commodity driven costs continue to oscillate.

“Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, three (Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment) registered growth in February. The first two are “foundational” industries, meaning those that provide products and components for other manufacturing industries.

“Demand is at the early stages of recovery, and production execution is relatively stable compared to January, as panelists’ companies begin to prepare for expansion. Suppliers continue to have capacity but are showing signs of struggling, due in part to their raw material supply chains. Forty percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in February, down from 62 percent in January. More importantly, the share of sector GDP registering a composite PMI® calculation at or below 45 percent — a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness — was 1 percent in February, compared to 27 percent in January and 48 percent in December. Among the top six industries by contribution to manufacturing GDP in February, none had a PMI at or below 45 percent, compared to two in the previous month,” says Fiore.

The eight manufacturing industries reporting growth in February — in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Transportation Equipment. The seven industries reporting contraction in February — in the following order — are: Furniture & Related Products; Machinery; Wood Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Paper Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

What Respondents Are Saying

“Currently seeing increasing sales in our business. Most delivery dates are in the second quarter of 2024.” [Chemical Products]

“The first quarter will be slower due to some customer order changes, but we are expecting the rest of 2024 to be strong. We may increase our growth projections.” [Transportation Equipment]

“Typical first quarter volume drops from fourth quarter high volumes. Additional distribution has allowed us to maintain consistent production shifts.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]

“Customer softness continues in China, Japan and Europe.” [Computer & Electronic Products]

“Demand has finally picked up, with customer orders more closely resembling typical January and February levels. January was up 22 percent compared to December; February up 26 percent compared to January.” [Machinery]

“Customer orders are steady, neither up nor down compared to last month. This steady state is what we budgeted and forecast. We are forecasting business to increase 2 percent to 4 percent over the next couple of months.” [Fabricated Metal Products]

“Business outlook overall is stable. Working through customer backlog with some raw material lead times improving.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]

“We reflected on 2023 for maybe a minute and turned the page forward to 2024. Weather in January caused several operations to be idle, and shipments were affected.” [Nonmetallic Mineral Products]

“The month seems to be getting stronger with each passing day and week. Lots of market volatility —pricing flat to downward. It will be interesting to see how the last days of the month play out, as indications seem to be all over the place.” [Primary Metals]

“We are experiencing increased sales, which is putting pressure on the plant and assembly to meet new customer demand.” [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

Commodities Reported Up/Down In Price And In Short Supply

Commodities Up in Price
Aluminum* (3); Electrical Components; Maintenance, Repair, and Operations (MRO) Supplies; Ocean Freight (2); Plastic Resins (2); Polyethylene; Polypropylene (5); Steel (8); Steel — Carbon (2); Steel — Hot Rolled (4); and Steel Products (3).

Commodities Down in Price
Aluminum* (9); Corrugated Boxes (7); Natural Gas (3); Packaging Materials (3); Pallets; Steel; and Steel Products.

Commodities in Short Supply
Coatings and Adhesives; Electrical Equipment; Electrical Components (41); Electronic Assemblies; and Electronic Components (39).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
*Indicates both up and down in price.

February 2024 Manufacturing Index Summaries

Manufacturing PMI®
The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in February, as the Manufacturing PMI registered 47.8 percent, down 1.3 percentage points compared to January’s reading of 49.1 percent. “This is the 16th consecutive month of contraction. Four out of five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI are in contraction territory, up from three in January. The New Orders Index dropped back into contraction territory after one month in expansion. Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, three (Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment) registered growth in February,” says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A Manufacturing PMI above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the February Manufacturing PMI indicates the overall economy grew for the 46th straight month after one month of contraction (April 2020). “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI and the overall economy indicates that the February reading (47.8 percent) corresponds to a change of plus-1.5 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” says Fiore.

The Last 12 Months

New Orders
ISM’s New Orders Index contracted for the 18th time in 20 months in February, registering 49.2 percent, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points compared to January’s reading of 52.5 percent. The New Orders Index contracted in July 2022, registered 50.1 percent in August 2022 and had been in contraction until January. “Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, four (Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; and Computer & Electronic Products) reported increased new orders. Panelists’ comments reflected sentiment about improving demand, a trend that began in December 2023. Indications of order softness were at the lowest level since April 2023,” says Fiore. A New Orders Index above 52.3 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The 11 manufacturing industries that reported growth in new orders in February — in the following order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Wood Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Computer & Electronic Products. The four industries reporting a decline in new orders in February are: Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery.

Production
The Production Index moved back into contraction territory in February, registering 48.4 percent, 2 percentage points lower than the January reading of 50.4 percent. The Production Index has been in contraction in 11 of the last 15 months. Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, two (Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products) reported increased production. More importantly, both of those industries are “foundational,” providing products across the manufacturing sector. “Panelists’ companies essentially maintained output levels from January, but due to seasonality adjustments, expansion wasn’t fast enough to avoid a subindex reading in contraction territory. Overall, production rates have been essentially stable since July 2023, with slight month-over-month declines consistent with reductions in demand and backlog,” says Fiore. An index above 52.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.

The seven industries reporting growth in production during the month of February, in order, are: Paper Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products. The five industries reporting a decrease in production in February are: Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. Six industries reported no change in production in February compared to January.

Employment
ISM’s Employment Index registered 45.9 percent in February, 1.2 percentage points lower than the January reading of 47.1 percent. “The index indicated employment contracted for the fifth month in a row (and at a faster rate in February) after one month of expansion and three months of contraction before that. Of the six big manufacturing sectors, only Transportation Equipment expanded employment in February. Many Business Survey Committee respondents’ companies are continuing to reduce head counts using layoffs (which account for 50 percent of reduction activity), attrition and hiring freezes. Panelists’ comments in February were equally split between their companies adding and reducing head counts. This approximately 1-to-1 ratio has been consistent since October 2023,” says Fiore. An Employment Index above 50.3 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of 18 manufacturing industries, four reported employment growth in February: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; and Transportation Equipment. The 10 industries reporting a decrease in employment in February, in the following order, are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Paper Products; Wood Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Furniture & Related Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products.

Supplier Deliveries†
Delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower in February after 16 straight months in “faster” territory for the Supplier Deliveries Index, which registered 50.1 percent, 1 percentage point higher than the 49.1 percent reported in January. After a reading of 52.4 percent in September 2022, the index went into contraction territory in October and had been there until February. “Panelists’ comments continue to indicate that suppliers’ performance is improving; delivery promises appear to be more stable as inputs transition to a more demand-driven environment. For the second month, supplier responsiveness appears to be ‘stiffer,’ meaning some suppliers are struggling to keep up,” says Fiore. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The four manufacturing industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in February are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Transportation Equipment. The five industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in February are: Paper Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. Nine industries reported no change in delivery performance in February compared to January.

Inventories
The Inventories Index registered 45.3 percent in February, 0.9 percentage point lower than the 46.2 percent reported in January. “Manufacturing inventories contracted at a slightly faster rate compared to the previous month. Of the six big industries, two (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Fabricated Metal Products) increased manufacturing inventories in February. Overall, panelists’ companies are indicating a willingness to invest in manufacturing inventory to improve on-time deliveries, gain precision in revenue projections and improve customer satisfaction. Something to watch in the coming months: Supply chains catching up to growing demand is a scenario that typically results in manufacturing inventories expanding,” says Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 44.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

Of 18 manufacturing industries, six reported higher inventories in February, in the following order: Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. The seven industries reporting lower inventories in February — in the following order — are: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; and Machinery.

Customers’ Inventories†
ISM’s Customers’ Inventories Index registered 45.8 percent in February, up 2.1 percentage points compared to the 43.7 percent reported in January. “Customers’ inventory levels decreased at a slower rate in February, with the index moving up but still in ‘too low’ territory. Panelists report their companies’ customers continue to have a shortage of their products in inventory, which is considered positive for future new orders and production,” says Fiore.

The three industries reporting customers’ inventories as too high in February are: Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products. The nine industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low in February, in order, are: Paper Products; Wood Products; Chemical Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.

Prices†
The ISM Prices Index registered 52.5 percent, 0.4 percentage point lower compared to the January reading of 52.9 percent, indicating raw materials prices increased in February for the second month in a row after eight consecutive months of decreases. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, three — Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; and Computer & Electronic Products — reported price increases in February. “The Prices Index indicated moderate expansion in the second month of 2024 as new pricing agreements are implemented at panelists’ companies and commodity prices continue to be volatile. Steel, plastics, cement and aluminum all contributed to price growth in February. Eighteen percent of companies reported higher prices, compared to 20 percent in January,” says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.

In February, the 11 industries that reported paying increased prices for raw materials, in order, are: Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The four industries reporting paying decreased prices for raw materials in February are: Primary Metals; Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Backlog of Orders†
ISM’s Backlog of Orders Index registered 46.3 percent, a 1.6-percentage point increase compared to January’s reading of 44.7 percent, indicating order backlogs contracted for the 17th consecutive month after a 27-month period of expansion. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, only Fabricated Metal Products expanded order backlogs in February. “The index remains in contraction, though at a slightly slower rate in February, as production rates and new order levels continue to have a negative effect on backlogs,” says Fiore.

Of 18 manufacturing industries, the five that reported growth in order backlogs in February are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Paper Products; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Fabricated Metal Products. The eight industries reporting lower backlogs in February — in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products.

New Export Orders†
ISM’s New Export Orders Index registered 51.6 percent in February, 6.4 percentage points higher than the January reading of 45.2 percent. This is the index’s highest reading since July 2022 (52.6 percent). “The New Export Orders Index reading indicates that export orders expanded in February after eight consecutive months of contraction. Panelists’ comments supported improvement in order activity from China and the European region,” says Fiore.

The six industries reporting growth in new export orders in February — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery. The six industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in February — in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Chemical Products.

Imports†
ISM’s Imports Index registered 53 percent in February, an increase of 2.9 percentage points compared to January’s figure of 50.1 percent and its highest level since a reading of 54.4 percent in July 2022. “Imports grew for the second consecutive month in February after contracting for 14 consecutive months. Lunar New Year pre-shipments contributed to the month-over-month increase in import activity. Panelists continued to note rising ocean freight costs and extended trans-Suez lead times as a result of Red Sea disruptions,” says Fiore.

The nine industries reporting an increase in import volumes in February — listed in the following order — are: Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The five industries that reported lower volumes of imports in February are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Plastics & Rubber Products.

†The Supplier Deliveries, Customers’ Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

Buying Policy
The average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in February was 177 days, an increase of five days compared to January. Average lead time in February for Production Materials was 80 days, a decrease of three days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies was 43 days, the same figure reported in January.

Posted: March 2, 2024

Source: Institute for Supply Management