TEMPE, Ariz. — March 3, 2025 — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded for the second month in a row in February after 26 consecutive months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 50.3 percent in February, 0.6 percentage point lower compared to the 50.9 percent recorded in January. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 58th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index dropped back into contraction territory after expanding for three months, registering 48.6 percent, 6.5 percentage points lower than the 55.1 percent recorded in January. The February reading of the Production Index (50.7 percent) is 1.8 percentage points lower than January’s figure of 52.5 percent. The index expanded for the second month in a row after eight months in contraction. The Prices Index surged further into expansion (or ‘increasing’) territory, registering 62.4 percent, up 7.5 percentage points compared to the reading of 54.9 percent in January. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 46.8 percent, up 1.9 percentage points compared to the 44.9 percent recorded in January. The Employment Index registered 47.6 percent, down 2.7 percentage points from January’s figure of 50.3 percent.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated further slowing deliveries, registering 54.5 percent, 3.6 percentage points higher than the 50.9 percent recorded in January. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM Report On Business index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.) The Inventories Index registered 49.9 percent, up 4 percentage points compared to January’s reading of 45.9 percent.

“The New Export Orders Index reading of 51.4 percent is 1 percentage point lower than the reading of 52.4 percent registered in January. The Imports Index continued in expansion in February, registering 52.6 percent, 1.5 percentage points higher than January’s reading of 51.1 percent.”

Fiore continues, “U.S. manufacturing activity expanded marginally for the second month in a row in February after 26 consecutive months of contraction. Demand weakened, while output stabilized and inputs, for the first time in several months, contributed to PMI growth. Indications that demand weakened include: the (1) New Orders Index dropped into contraction territory, (2) New Export Orders Index continued expanding, but at a slower rate, (3) Backlog of Orders Index continued in contraction, but moved upward, and (4) Customers’ Inventories Index moved further into ‘too low’ territory. Output (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) was stable. Factory output marginally expanded compared to January, indicating that panelists’ companies are being cautious about ramping up output in the face of economic headwinds. The Employment Index moved back into contraction, as panelists’ companies continued to release workers. More companies cited ‘attriting down’ as the best process, with destaffing not as urgent as it was in the second half of 2024. Inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — revealed the first signs of supplier difficulties due to some pull-forward deliveries and discussions about who will pay for tariffs. Inventories recovered somewhat as a result.

“Demand eased, production stabilized, and destaffing continued as panelists’ companies experience the first operational shock of the new administration’s tariff policy. Prices growth accelerated due to tariffs, causing new order placement backlogs, supplier delivery stoppages and manufacturing inventory impacts. Although tariffs do not go into force until mid-March, spot commodity prices have already risen about 20 percent. Twenty-four percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in February, down from 43 percent in January. The share of manufacturing sector GDP registering a composite PMI® calculation at or below 45 percent (a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness) was 2 percent in February, a 6-percentage point improvement compared to the 8 percent reported in January. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, four (Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment) expanded in February, equaling the number in January,” says Fiore.

The 10 manufacturing industries reporting growth in February — listed in order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Wood Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Transportation Equipment. The five industries reporting contraction in February are: Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Machinery.

What Respondents Are Saying

“The tariff environment regarding products from Mexico and Canada has created uncertainty and volatility among our customers and increased our exposure to retaliatory measures from these countries.” [Chemical Products]

“Customers are pausing on new orders as a result of uncertainty regarding tariffs. There is no clear direction from the administration on how they will be implemented, so it’s harder to project how they will affect business.” [Transportation Equipment]

“Tariff impact has been minimal to overall manufacturing and raw material supply. Limits on U.S. government spending in key organizations like the Food and Drug Administration, Environmental Protection Agency and National Institutes of Health are delaying some orders.” [Computer & Electronic Products]

“Inflation and pricing pressure continue to drive uncertainty in our 2025 outlook. We are seeing volume impacts due to pricing, with customers buying less and looking for substitution options.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]

“The incoming tariffs are causing our products to increase in price. Sweeping price increases are incoming from suppliers. Most are noting increases in labor costs. Vendors are indicating open capacity. Inflationary pressures are a concern. Our company is working diligently to see how the new tariffs will affect our business.” [Machinery]

“Business is still slow, but some indications of improved demand are six to nine months out. Steel and scrap costs are increasing, and it’s too early to tell how high they will go.” [Fabricated Metal Products]

“New orders continue to be strong after picking up in December. The uncertainty about tariffs keeps us cautious on spending, despite the strong sales right now.” [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]

“Management now has us running scenarios to project tariff impacts to our business. They want numbers in 24 hours on variables that equate to a wild guess. Interesting times we live in.” [Nonmetallic Mineral Products]

“Internal analysis ongoing about impact of tariffs, but nothing concrete yet. General business conditions remain tepid; outlook on the durables side growing more pessimistic with growing domestic inventories of automobiles.” [Plastics & Rubber Products]

“Customer volumes seem to be better than 2024. However, customers are still very hesitant to commit to long-term volumes due to the market uncertainty caused by proposed tariffs on steel/aluminum imports.” [Primary Metals]

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

Commodities Reported Up/Down In Price And In Short Supply 

Commodities Up in Price
Aluminum (15); Cocoa Beans; Copper; Electrical Components; Electronic Components; Labor — Temporary; Natural Gas (5); Plastic Resin; Polypropylene Resin; Solvents; Steel; Steel — Carbon; Steel — Hot Rolled; and Steel — Scrap (2).

Commodities Down in Price
Ocean Freight

Commodities in Short Supply
Electrical Components (53)

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

February 2025 Maufacturing Index Summaries

Manufacturing PMI®
The U.S. manufacturing sector expanded for the second consecutive month in February after 26 months of contraction, as the Manufacturing PMI registered 50.3 percent, 0.6 percentage point lower compared to the 50.9 percent reported in January. “Although the PMI took a step back in February, it increased by four percentage points over the three previous months, with the most recent bump in January finally returning the manufacturing sector to expansion. Of the five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI, two (Production and Supplier Deliveries) were in expansion territory, compared to four in January. Both the Employment and the New Orders indexes returned to contraction. Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, four (Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment) registered growth,” says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A Manufacturing PMI above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the February Manufacturing PMI indicates the overall economy grew for the 58th straight month after last contracting in April 2020. “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI and the overall economy indicates that the February reading (50.3 percent) corresponds to a change of plus-2.2 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” says Fiore.

The Last 12 Months

New Orders
ISM’s New Orders Index contracted in February after expanding for three consecutive months, registering 48.6 percent, a decrease of 6.5 percentage points compared to January’s figure of 55.1 percent. This is the steepest single-month decline since April 2020, when the index dropped 15.1 percentage points. The New Orders Index hasn’t indicated consistent growth since a 24-month streak of expansion ended in May 2022. “Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, four (Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products) reported increased new orders. The other two, Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment, reported declines. Panelists noted a weakening level of demand performance, with a 1.3-to-1 ratio of positive comments versus those expressing concern about near-term demand. Orders have also been impacted by discussions of which party will pay for potential tariff costs, causing a slowing in order placement. In addition, there is diminished confidence not only in additional interest rate cuts, but also the decline in long-term rates affecting durable goods and construction activity,” says Fiore. A New Orders Index above 52.1 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The nine manufacturing industries that reported growth in new orders in February, in order, are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Wood Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products. The six industries reporting a decline in new orders in February, in order, are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment.

Production
The Production Index was in expansion territory in February for the second straight month, registering 50.7 percent, 1.8 percentage points lower than the January reading of 52.5 percent. Prior to January’s reading, the index was in contraction territory for eight consecutive months. Prior to the last two months, the last time the index registered above 50 percent was in April 2024 (50.7 percent). Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, three (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment) reported increased production. “Production levels in February were similar to January’s performance, as order books remain weak and new orders remain elusive,” says Fiore. An index above 52.1 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.

The seven industries reporting growth in production during the month of February, in order, are: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment. The four industries reporting a decrease in production in February are: Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; and Machinery. Six industries reported no change in production levels in February as compared to January.

Employment
ISM’s Employment Index registered 47.6 percent in February, 2.7 percentage points lower than January’s reading of 50.3 percent. “The index has returned to contraction after expanding for a single month. Since May 2022, the Employment Index has contracted 27 of the last 34 months. Of the six big manufacturing sectors, only one (Transportation Equipment) expanded employment in February. Respondents’ companies are continuing to reduce head counts through layoffs, attrition and hiring freezes. This action is supported by a second straight month with an approximate 1-to-1 ratio of hiring versus staff-reduction comments. Panelists are continuing to release employees as the business environment becomes more unclear,” says Fiore. An Employment Index above 50.3 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of 18 manufacturing industries, the six industries reporting employment growth in February — in the following order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; and Transportation Equipment. The nine industries reporting a decrease in employment in February, in the following order, are: Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Computer & Electronic Products.

Supplier Deliveries†
Delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower in February, with the Supplier Deliveries Index registering 54.5 percent, a 3.6-percentage point increase compared to the reading of 50.9 percent reported in January. This expansion follows a contraction (which indicates faster delivery performance) in November, preceded by four consecutive months of slower deliveries, with four straight months of faster deliveries before that. After a reading of 52.4 percent in September 2022, the index went into contraction territory the following month and remained there for 20 out of 21 months, with February 2024 the exception. Of the six big industries, five (Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products) reported slower supplier deliveries in February. “Supplier deliveries moved further into ‘slower’ territory, as suppliers struggled to meet accelerated delivery requests from customers (due to a potential ports strike and tariffs deployment) and as suppliers and panelists’ companies negotiate who pays for current tariffs, resulting in the slowing of some material deliveries,” says Fiore. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The nine manufacturing industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in February — in the following order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Computer & Electronic Products. The four industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in February are: Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Inventories
The Inventories Index registered 49.9 percent in February, up a notable 4 percentage points compared to the reading of 45.9 percent reported in January. The last time the Inventories Index registered above 50 percent was in August, when it registered 50.2 percent. “Manufacturing inventories marginally contracted in February, as panelists’ companies are asking for earlier deliveries of materials due to a potential ports work stoppage and the financial impacts of tariffs deployment,” says Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 44.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

Of 18 manufacturing industries, the seven industries reporting higher inventories in February — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products. The six industries reporting lower inventories in February — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Computer & Electronic Products.

Customers’ Inventories†
ISM’s Customers’ Inventories Index registered a reading of 45.3 percent in February, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points compared to the reading of 46.7 percent in January. “Customers’ inventory levels in February dropped into definitive ‘too low’ territory. Panelists are reporting that the amounts of their companies’ products in their customers’ inventories suggest a demand level that is positive for future production,” says Fiore.

The two industries reporting customers’ inventories as too high in February are: Wood Products; and Transportation Equipment. The 10 industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low in February, in order, are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

Prices†
The ISM Prices Index registered 62.4 percent in February, 7.5 percentage points higher compared to the January reading of 54.9 percent, indicating raw materials prices increased for the fifth straight month after a decrease in September. This is the largest month-over-month increase in the Prices Index since an increase of 7.7 percentage points in January 2024; there was an 11.5-percentage point gain in March 2022. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, five — Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; and Computer & Electronic Products — reported price increases in February. “The Prices Index indicated increasing prices in February for the fifth consecutive month, driven by the dramatic increase in commodity prices as a result of new and potential tariffs. Mill materials (steel, aluminum and copper), food elements, plastics and natural gas registered increases similar to the prior month. The plastics increase reversed a decline. Thirty-one percent of companies reported higher prices in February, compared to 21 percent in January,” says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.

In February, the 14 industries that reported paying increased prices for raw materials, in order, are: Wood Products; Textile Mills; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The only industry that reported paying decreased prices for raw materials in February is Petroleum & Coal Products.

Backlog of Orders†
ISM’s Backlog of Orders Index registered 46.8 percent, an increase of 1.9 percentage points compared to the January reading of 44.9 percent, indicating order backlogs contracted for the 29th consecutive month after a 27-month period of expansion. None of the six largest manufacturing industries reported expanded order backlogs in February. “It appears that the extensive decline in order books has dramatically slowed, indicated by three months at moderate rather than significant contraction. By definition, the Backlog of Orders Index will be the last of the four demand indicators to enter expansion,” says Fiore.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, five reported growth in order backlogs in February: Wood Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; and Fabricated Metal Products. The eight industries reporting lower backlogs in February — in the following order — are: Furniture & Related Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Chemical Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

New Export Orders†
ISM’s New Export Orders Index expanded in February for the second consecutive month, registering 51.4 percent in February, down 1 percentage point from January’s reading of 52.4 percent. “The New Export Orders Index reading indicates that export orders grew for a second consecutive month, following an ‘unchanged’ (50 percent) status preceded by six straight months of contraction. New export orders expanded again, as panelists’ comments cited Chinese stimulus impacts and potential counter tariffs levied by Beijing and Europe,” says Fiore.

The four industries reporting growth in new export orders in February are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Computer & Electronic Products. The four industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in February are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products. Nine industries reported no change in new export orders in February.

Imports†
ISM’s Imports Index increased for the second consecutive month in February posting a reading of 52.6 percent, 1.5 percentage points higher than the reading of 51.1 percent reported in January. “Imports expanded this month again after contracting for seven months in a row, preceded by five consecutive months of expansion and 14 consecutive months of contraction prior to that. Imports remained in expansion as inventory constraints weaken, ports labor turbulence continues, buyers try to get ahead of tariffs and the balance of Lunar New Year deliveries arrive at U.S. ports,” says Fiore.

The seven industries reporting an increase in import volumes in February, in order, are: Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products. The three industries that reported lower volumes of imports in February are: Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. Seven industries reported no change in new export orders in February as compared to January.

†The Supplier Deliveries, Customers’ Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

Buying Policy
The average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in February was 168 days, unchanged from January. The average lead time in February for Production Materials was 85 days, an increase of two days compared to January. The average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies was 45 days, a decrease of two days compared to January.

Posted: March 4, 2025

Source: Institute for Supply Management