TEMPE, Ariz. — Febraury 1, 2023 — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in January for the third consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The January Manufacturing PMI registered 47.4 percent, 1 percentage point lower than the seasonally adjusted 48.4 percent recorded in December. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a second month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. The Manufacturing PMI figure is the lowest since May 2020, when it registered a seasonally adjusted 43.5 percent. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 42.5 percent, 2.6 percentage points lower than the seasonally adjusted figure of 45.1 percent recorded in December. The Production Index reading of 48 percent is a 0.6-percentage point decrease compared to December’s seasonally adjusted figure of 48.6 percent. The Prices Index registered 44.5 percent, up 5.1 percentage points compared to the December figure of 39.4 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 43.4 percent, 2 percentage points higher than the December reading of 41.4 percent. The Employment Index continued in expansion territory (50.6 percent, down 0.2 percentage point from December’s seasonally adjusted 50.8 percent) after emerging from contraction territory (48.9 percent, seasonally adjusted) in November. The Supplier Deliveries Index figure of 45.6 percent is 0.5 percentage point higher than the 45.1 percent recorded in December; the last two readings are the index’s lowest since March 2009 (43.2 percent). The Inventories Index registered 50.2 percent, 2.1 percentage points lower than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 52.3 percent. The New Export Orders Index reading of 49.4 percent is 3.2 percentage points higher than December’s figure of 46.2 percent. The Imports Index continued in contraction territory at 47.8 percent, 2.7 percentage points above the December reading of 45.1 percent.”

Fiore continues, “The U.S. manufacturing sector again contracted, with the Manufacturing PMI at its lowest level since the coronavirus pandemic recovery began. With Business Survey Committee panelists reporting softening new order rates over the previous nine months, the January composite index reading reflects companies slowing outputs to better match demand in the first half of 2023 and prepare for growth in the second half of the year. Demand eased, with the (1) New Orders Index contracting strongly, (2) New Export Orders Index still below 50 percent but improving, (3) Customers’ Inventories Index contracting slightly, a positive for future production and (4) Backlog of Orders Index recovering for a second month, but still in strong contraction. Output/Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) was negative, with a combined 0.8-percentage point downward impact on the Manufacturing PMI® calculation. The Employment Index remained just above 50 percent and the Production Index logged a second month in contraction territory. Panelists’ companies are indicating that they are not going to substantially reduce head counts as they are positive about the second half of the year. Inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — continue to accommodate future demand growth. The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated faster deliveries, and the Inventories Index expanded at a slower rate as panelists’ companies manage the total supply chain inventory. The Prices Index contracted for the fourth consecutive month, but at a slower rate.

“Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, one — Transportation Equipment — registered growth in January.

“New order rates remain depressed due to buyer and supplier disagreements regarding price levels and delivery lead times; these should be resolved by the second quarter. In the meantime, panelists’ companies are attempting to maintain head-count levels during the anticipated slow first half in preparation for a strong performance in the second half of 2023. Eighty-six percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) is contracting, up from 85 percent in December. However, 26 percent of sector industries had a composite PMI® calculation of below 45 percent in January (a stronger indication of industry sluggishness), down from 35 percent the previous month,” says Fiore.

The two manufacturing industries that reported growth in January are: Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Transportation Equipment. The 15 industries reporting contraction in January, in the following order, are: Wood Products; Textile Mills; Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.

What Respondents Are Saying

“Business is still strong, but we have begun to see softening in some pricing, and lead times seem to be improving.” [Computer & Electronic Products]

“Conditions are reasonable. Sales are a little better than planned. Cost pressures are easing for most products. There have been a lot fewer supply disruptions so far this year, and few expected in the short term. The crystal ball remains a little blurry for the rest of 2023.” [Chemical Products]

“Sales have dropped (as expected) at the beginning of the year. Forecast from the sales department is showing even lower sales then we expected. If this holds true, inventory levels will rise slightly over next month and a half.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]

“Supply chain issues continue to plague our production schedules. Transportation from our overseas suppliers is also contributing to delays. Lead times have doubled for critical electronics, gaskets, sealants, and specialized steel.” [Transportation Equipment]

“Strong big ag demand continues to drive heightened demand for parts. Large construction/off highway original equipment manufacturers have strong demand as well. Creating continued capacity constraints with the supply base.” [Machinery]

“Some business segments showing demand softening globally. Many materials showing improved lead times as well as cost deflation.” [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]

“Thus far, the outlook for the first half of 2023 looks very soft. Demand for our products has taken a sharp downward turn. Our inventories are high, as well as our customers’. It seems everyone is bracing for a recession.” [Fabricated Metal Products]

“Customers are being quite aggressive in pursuing price decreases, far beyond the price relief we are actually receiving from our suppliers.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]

“Industrial construction is strong. Commercial construction is slower.” [Nonmetallic Mineral Products]

“In the past two weeks, we are seeing a slowing of new orders.” [Primary Metals]

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.

Indexes reflect newly released seasonal adjustment factors.

Commodities Reported Up/Down In Price And In Short Supply

Commodities Up in Price

Aluminum*; Copper (2); Copper Products; Electrical Components (3); Freight* (2); Packaging Materials; Portland Cement; Steel — Carbon; Steel — Hot Rolled; Steel — Scrap; and Steel Products*.

Commodities Down in Price


Aluminum (9)*; Aluminum Products (2); Coconut Products; Corrugate (2); Corrugated Boxes; Crude Oil (2); Diesel (2); Freight* (3); High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) Resin; Lumber; Methanol; Natural Gas (2); Ocean Freight (5); Petroleum Based Products; Plastic Based Products; Plastic Resins (8); Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET); Polypropylene (6); Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC); Solvents; Steel (9); Steel Bars; and Steel Products (7)*.

Commodities in Short Supply

Bearings (2); Electrical Components (28); Electronic Components (26); Hydraulic Components (9); Semiconductors (26); Steel — Stainless; and Steel Products.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

*Indicates both up and down in price.

January 2023 Manufacturing Index Summaries

Manufacturing PMI®

The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in January, as the Manufacturing PMI registered 47.4 percent, 1 percentage point below the seasonally adjusted reading of 48.4 percent recorded in December. “This is the third month of slow contraction and the continuation of a downward trend that began in June 2022. Of the five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI, two (Employment and Inventories) were in growth territory; however, both slowed compared to December. The PMI registered its lowest level since May 2020, when the index registered a seasonally adjusted 43.5 percent. Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, only Transportation Equipment registered growth, albeit weak, in January. The Production Index logged a second month in contraction territory. Only two of the 10 subindexes were positive for the period,” says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A Manufacturing PMI above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the January Manufacturing PMI indicates the overall economy contracted in January for a second consecutive month after 30 straight months of expansion. “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Manufacturing PMI for January (47.4 percent) corresponds to a -0.5-percent change in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” said Fiore.

The Last 12 Months

New Orders

ISM’s New Orders Index contracted for the fifth consecutive month in January, registering 42.5 percent, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points compared to December’s seasonally adjusted reading of 45.1 percent. “None of the six largest manufacturing sectors reported increased new orders. Uncertainty regarding future demand, buyer/supplier disagreements on prices and lead times, and hangover from overordering in 2021 and 2022 continue to weigh heavily on the index,” says Fiore. (For more on lead times, see the Buying Policy section of this report.) A New Orders Index above 52.7 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

None of the 18 manufacturing industries reported growth in new orders in January. Seventeen industries reported a decline in new orders in January, in the following order: Wood Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment.

Production

The Production Index registered 48 percent in January, 0.6 percentage point lower than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 48.6 percent, indicating a second month of contraction after 30 consecutive months of growth. “Of the top six industries, only one — Computer & Electronic Products — expanded in January. Weak contraction in the Production Index supports manufacturing executives’ strategy to stretch out output during the first half of 2023, as panelists’ companies attempt to retain workers to prepare for better second-half performance,” says Fiore. An index above 52.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.

The only industry reporting growth in production during the month of January is Computer & Electronic Products. The 14 industries reporting a decrease in production in January — in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Wood Products; Primary Metals; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products.

Employment

ISM’s Employment Index registered 50.6 percent in January, 0.2 percentage point lower than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 50.8 percent. “The index indicated employment expanded weakly for a second month in a row after contracting for three months. Of the six big manufacturing sectors, only two (Machinery; and Transportation Equipment) expanded. Labor management sentiment reversed in the month, with a strong majority of panelists’ companies attempting to hire compared to reducing their employment levels. Although layoffs are occurring, there is a 4-to-1 hiring to reduction ratio (2-to-1 in the previous four months) as companies make decisions to retain workforces to support projected second-half growth. Turnover rates remained stable. For those companies increasing their head counts, comments continue to support an improving hiring environment,” says Fiore. An Employment Index above 50.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of 18 manufacturing industries, five reported employment growth in January: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; and Fabricated Metal Products. The nine industries reporting a decrease in employment in January — in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Paper Products; Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products.

Supplier Deliveries†

The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was faster for a fourth straight month in January, as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 45.6 percent, 0.5 percentage point higher than the 45.1 percent reported in December. The last two readings indicate the fastest supplier delivery performance since March 2009, when the index registered 43.2 percent. Of the top six manufacturing industries, only Petroleum & Coal Products reported slower deliveries. “Panelist comments indicate early signs of sellers’ eagerness to fill up order books after nine months of softening new order levels,” says Fiore. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

Two of 18 manufacturing industries reported slower supplier deliveries in January: Textile Mills; and Petroleum & Coal Products. The 12 industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in January as compared to December — in the following order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Inventories

The Inventories Index registered 50.2 percent in January, 2.1 percentage points lower than the seasonally adjusted 52.3 percent reported for December. “Manufacturing inventories expanded at a slower rate compared to December. Of the six big manufacturing industries, three (Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products) increased manufacturing raw material inventories in January. Manufacturing inventories are being managed appropriately amid demand uncertainty, especially in the first half of the year,” says Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 44.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

Of 18 manufacturing industries, the nine reporting higher inventories in January — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The five industries reporting contracting inventories in January are: Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products.

Customers’ Inventories†

ISM’s Customers’ Inventories Index registered 47.4 percent in January, 0.8 percentage point lower than the 48.2 percent reported for December. “Customers’ inventory levels remain ‘just right.’ January’s performance indicates that panelists’ companies sellers and buyers are finding a fair balance regarding inventory transfers,” says Fiore.

Seven industries reported customers’ inventories as too high in January, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; and Chemical Products. The seven industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low in January — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Prices†

The ISM Prices Index registered 44.5 percent in January, 5.1 percentage points higher compared to the December reading of 39.4 percent, indicating raw materials prices decreased for the fourth straight month after a 28-month period in “increasing” territory. “This ties the longest streak of declining Prices Index readings since the onset of the pandemic, from February through May 2020. Between April and December 2022, the index decreased 47.7 percentage points, including a combined 26-percentage point plunge in July and August. Only two of the top six manufacturing industries (Computer & Electronic Products; and Machinery) reported price increases in January. Panelist companies reporting ‘same’ or ‘lower’ prices continues to be the result of inventory dynamics preventing buyers and sellers from reaching agreements, which would unleash more new orders,” says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.9 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.

In January, four industries reported paying increased prices for raw materials: Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; and Machinery. The nine industries reporting paying decreased prices for raw materials in January — in the following order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Wood Products; Transportation Equipment; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Furniture & Related Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

Backlog of Orders†

ISM’s Backlog of Orders Index registered 43.4 percent in January, a 2-percentage point increase compared to December’s reading of 41.4 percent, indicating order backlogs contracted for the fourth consecutive month after a 27-month period of expansion. Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, two — Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products — expanded order backlogs in January. “Backlogs contracted again at notable rates, as weak new order levels negatively impacted manufacturing planning, resulting in fewer new orders to suppliers. Panelists continue to work off backlog (overdue orders) as new order rates continue to soften,” says Fiore.

Two industries reported growth in order backlogs in January: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products. Fourteen industries reported lower backlogs in January, in the following order: Textile Mills; Paper Products; Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.

New Export Orders†

ISM’s New Export Orders Index registered 49.4 percent in January, 3.2 percentage points higher than the December reading of 46.2 percent. “The New Export Orders Index contracted in January for the sixth consecutive month after 25 straight months in expansion territory. Weakness in European economies should continue for the foreseeable future, offset by China’s relaxing of zero-COVID policies,” says Fiore.

Four industries reported growth in new export orders in January: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; and Fabricated Metal Products. The six industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in January — in the following order — are: Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; and Transportation Equipment. Seven industries reported no change in new export orders in January compared to December.

Imports†

ISM’s Imports Index registered 47.8 percent in January, an increase of 2.7 percentage points compared to December’s figure of 45.1 percent. “The index remained in contraction in January following a recent five-month period of expansion, continuing at levels not seen since May 2020 (41.3 percent). Panelists’ comments indicate that the index contraction is a combination of sluggish demand as well as lingering effects from China’s zero-COVID policies, as well as Lunar New Year. There is some concern that the latter issue may start affecting U.S. output beginning in March,” says Fiore.

The eight industries reporting an increase in import volumes in January — in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary Metals; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. Nine industries reported lower volumes of imports in January, in the following order: Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; and Chemical Products.

†The Supplier Deliveries, Customers’ Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

Buying Policy

The average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in January was 166 days, a decrease of five days compared to December. Average lead time in January for Production Materials was 87 days, an increase of two days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies was 41 days, a decrease of six days.

Posted: February 1, 2023

Source: Institute for Supply Management

MEDINA, Ohio — February 1, 2023 — Fire-Dex, a fast-growing manufacturer of PPE for first responders in the country, is donating nearly 15,000 nonsurgical AAMI Level 3 isolation gowns to the Illinois Fire Service Institute (IFSI) that will in turn distribute the garments to fire departments and EMS services statewide. As the ideal safety wear for medical calls and contamination events, the gowns provide enhanced protection against biological and environmental hazards. They can also be laundered and reused unlike many other disposable gowns.

“The Illinois Fire Service Institute is grateful for the generosity of our valued partner, Fire- Dex,” says IFSI Director, Chief Jim Keiken. “It is through this partnership that we are able to distribute critical PPE to fire departments and regional medical facilities across Illinois. This donation is a testament to the importance of strong local, state and industry relationships.”

Supporting Fire Service

IFSI serves as America’s oldest continuous fire training, education and research institution tracing back to 1925. Fire-Dex — an enthusiastic supporter of IFSI’s mission to directly impact first responders’ work, health and safety — is proud to again put its resources behind the people who do lifesaving work with this latest donation totaling more than $500,000 in specialized protective clothing.

Both MABAS Illinois, a state mutual aid organization, and Carle Health, an integrated system of local health care services and physician groups, will assist IFSI in allocating the donated PPE in the coming months:

MABAS Illinois: The Mutual Aid Box Alarm System (MABAS) Illinois offers a statewide response system for fire, EMS and specialized incident teams. MABAS Illinois will distribute isolation gowns to Level B Hazardous Materials teams and to fire departments for use during large-scale contamination events.

Carle Health: Based in Urbana, Illinois, Carle will help ensure that the gowns are used in emergency rooms and clinics across the state to reduce contamination risks to first responders

Fit for the Front Lines

Fire-Dex started production of AAMI-compliant isolation gowns and coveralls in 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. These reusable garments have been tested to 100 wash, dry and sanitization cycles and far exceed Level 3 requirements.

“We’re happy to continue our support of IFSI by putting these garments in the hands of those who will put them to best use,” says Jenny Surovey, VP of Marketing for Fire-Dex. “The Institute sits at the forefront of national training standards, and it is our privilege to assist fire service industry members with convenient access to top-quality PPE.”

The standard isolation gown is a universal fit featuring elastic wrists and an adjustable tie back, while the coveralls are alpha sized and boast elastic wrists, ankles and a hood with an elastic facial opening.

Posted: February 1, 2023

Source: Fire-Dex