TEMPE, Ariz. — April 3, 2023 — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in March for the fifth consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The March Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.3 percent, 1.4 percentage points lower than the 47.7 percent recorded in February. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a fourth month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. The Manufacturing PMI® is at its lowest level since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 percent. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 44.3 percent, 2.7 percentage points lower than the figure of 47 percent recorded in February. The Production Index reading of 47.8 percent is a 0.5-percentage point increase compared to February’s figure of 47.3 percent. The Prices Index registered 49.2 percent, down 2.1 percentage points compared to the February figure of 51.3 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 43.9 percent, 1.2 percentage points lower than the February reading of 45.1 percent. The Employment Index continued in contraction territory, registering 46.9 percent, down 2.2 percentage points from February’s reading of 49.1 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index figure of 44.8 percent is 0.4 percentage point lower than the 45.2 percent recorded in February; this is the index’s lowest reading since March 2009 (43.2 percent). The Inventories Index dropped into contraction at 47.5 percent, 2.6 percentage points lower than the February reading of 50.1 percent. The New Export Orders Index reading of 47.6 percent is 2.3 percentage points lower than February’s figure of 49.9 percent. The Imports Index continued in contraction territory at 47.9 percent, 2 percentage points below the 49.9 percent reported in February.”

Fiore continues, “The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted again, with the Manufacturing PMI® declining compared to the previous month. With Business Survey Committee panelists reporting softening new order rates over the previous 10 months, the March composite index reading reflects companies continuing to slow outputs to better match demand for the first half of 2023 and prepare for growth in the late summer/early fall period. Demand eased, with the (1) New Orders Index contracting at a faster rate, (2) New Export Orders Index still below 50 percent and declining, (3) Customers’ Inventories Index entering the high end of a ‘just right’ level, a negative for future production and (4) Backlog of Orders Index sagging again and continuing in contraction. Output/Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) was negative, with a combined 1.7-percentage point downward impact on the Manufacturing PMI® calculation.

The Employment Index continued in contraction after two months of marginal expansion, and the Production Index logged a fourth month in contraction territory, though at a slightly lower rate. Panelists’ comments now indicate equal levels of activity toward expanding and contracting head counts at their companies, amid mixed sentiment about the return of growth early in the second half of the year. Inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — continue to accommodate future demand growth. The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated faster deliveries, and the Inventories Index dropped back into contraction as panelists’ companies continue to manage their total supply chain inventories and liquidity. The Prices Index dropped back into ‘decreasing’ territory after one month of increasing prices preceded by four straight months below 50 percent.

“Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, two — Petroleum & Coal Products; and Machinery — registered growth in March.

“New order rates remain sluggish as panelists become more concerned about when manufacturing growth will resume. Supply chains are now ready for growth, as panelists’ comments support reduced lead times for their more important purchases. Price instability remains, but future demand is uncertain as companies continue to work down overdue deliveries and backlogs. Seventy percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) is contracting, down from 82 percent in February. However, more industries contracted strongly; the proportion of manufacturing GDP with a composite PMI calculation at or below 45 percent — a good barometer of overall manufacturing sluggishness — was 25 percent in March, compared to 10 percent in February, 26 percent in January and 35 percent in December 2022,” says Fiore.

The six manufacturing industries that reported growth in March — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Primary Metals; and Machinery. The 12 industries reporting contraction in March, in the following order, are: Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Textile Mills; Plastics & Rubber Products; Paper Products; Wood Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Transportation Equipment.

What Respondents Are Saying

“Orders and production are fairly flat month over month. Lead times have stabilized in most areas, so looking at reducing commitments on new orders, except for a few strategic electronic buys with lead times that are still too long.” [Computer & Electronic Products]

“Sales a bit down, and budgets being cut with a greater emphasis on savings.” [Chemical Products]

“Business is doing generally well, with input costs falling in some areas and rising in others.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]

“Sales are slowing at an increasing rate, which is allowing us to burn through back orders at a faster-than-expected pace.” [Transportation Equipment]

“Lead times are still improving, but prices continue to face inflationary pressures. Prices of steel and steel products are going up some. Hydraulic components are still facing extended lead times. We are increasing inventory levels of imports due to global uncertainty from the ongoing war in Ukraine and threats from China.” [Machinery]

“Overall, (our) first quarter is going better than planned, with sales increases of about 7 percent versus a budget of 4.5 percent. However, sales volume is pulling down our automotive original equipment manufacturer (OEM) side, which is the majority of our business. We believe the second quarter will be hard but are holding to our outlook.” [Fabricated Metal Products]

“Business is still slow overall. Customers have not yet picked up orders at pre-pandemic levels.” [Apparel, Leather & Allied Products]

“Overall, things feel more stable in the first quarter 2023 than they did throughout 2021-22. Customer demand is — as expected — growing well, and the overall supply environment is far better than the previous two years. This is not to say there are not challenges; there absolutely are. However, there are fewer issues cropping up each week, and supply challenges are generally more like the ‘typical’ issues we experienced before the pandemic. We are closely monitoring the global banking situation, but no impacts have been experienced or are expected at this time. Ongoing tensions between the U.S. and China are another issue to watch.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]

“New orders are starting to soften and supplier deliveries are improving slightly. This is allowing us to reduce (our) backlog and build a buffer in some categories. The supply chain disruption — particularly in electronics — is still significant compared to pre-pandemic conditions.” [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]

“Overall, business continues to remain strong. We are still experiencing supply chain issues on several indirect supplies.” [Primary Metals]

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

Commodities Reported Up/Down In Price And In Short Supply 

Commodities Up in Price
Copper (4); Electrical Components (5); Electronic Components (2); Plastic Resins*; Polypropylene (2); Propylenes; Steel (2); Steel — Cold Rolled; Steel — Fabrications; Steel — Hot Rolled; Steel — Scrap; Steel — Stainless (2); and Steel Products (3).

Commodities Down in Price
Caustic Soda; Corn; Corrugate (4); Corrugated Boxes (3); Crude Oil; Freight (5); Natural Gas (4); Ocean Freight (7); Plastic Resins* (10); Polyethylene; and Solvents.

Commodities in Short Supply
Electrical Components (30); Electronic Components (28); Hydraulic Components (11); Integrated Circuits; and Semiconductors (28).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
*Indicates both up and down in price.

March 2023 Manufacturing Index Summaries 

Manufacturing PMI®
The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in March, as the Manufacturing PMI registered 46.3 percent, 1.4 percentage points lower than the reading of 47.7 percent recorded in February. “This is the fifth month of contraction and continuation of a downward trend that began in June 2022. Of the five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI, none were in growth territory. This month, the PMI registered its lowest reading since May 2020 (43.5 percent). Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, two (Petroleum & Coal Products; and Machinery) registered growth in March. The Production Index logged a fourth month in contraction territory. None of the 10 subindexes were positive for the period,” says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A Manufacturing PMI above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the March Manufacturing PMI® indicates the overall economy contracted in March for a fourth consecutive month after 30 straight months of expansion. “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the March reading (46.3 percent) corresponds to a change of minus-0.9 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” says Fiore.

The Last 12 Months

New Orders
ISM’s New Orders Index contracted for the seventh consecutive month in March, registering 44.3 percent, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points compared to February’s reading of 47 percent. “Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, one (Petroleum & Coal Products) reported increased new orders. New orders contraction quickened as uncertainty regarding future demand continues to hold the index back from more notable improvement,” says Fiore. (For more on lead times, see the Buying Policy section of this report.) A New Orders Index above 52.7 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The five manufacturing industries that reported growth in new orders in March are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. Eleven industries reported a decline in new orders in March, in the following order: Paper Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; and Chemical Products.

Production
The Production Index registered 47.8 percent in March, 0.5 percentage point higher than the February reading of 47.3 percent, indicating a fourth month of contraction after 30 consecutive months of growth. “Of the top six industries, only three — Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; and Machinery — expanded in March. Weak contraction in the Production Index continues to support manufacturing executives’ strategy to extend output during the first half of 2023, as panelists’ companies attempt to retain sufficient workers to prepare for better second-half performance. In the last two months, the index recorded its lowest readings since May 2020 (34.2 percent),” says Fiore. An index above 52.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.

The eight industries reporting growth in production during the month of March are, in order: Printing & Related Support Activities; Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; and Machinery. The eight industries reporting a decrease in production in March — in the following order — are: Paper Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Wood Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Chemical Products.

Employment
ISM’s Employment Index registered 46.9 percent in March, 2.2 percentage points lower than the February reading of 49.1 percent. “The index indicated employment contracted again, continuing a trend of weak performance since September 2022. Of the six big manufacturing sectors, only two (Machinery; and Transportation Equipment) expanded. Labor management sentiment at panelists’ companies is approaching parity (near equal levels of hiring and staffing reductions). Companies are attempting to maintain workforce levels to support projected second-half growth, but to a lesser degree compared to February. Turnover rates in March were consistent with February, with both months recording their lowest levels since measurements began in mid-2021. For those companies increasing their head counts, comments continue to support an improving hiring environment,” says Fiore. An Employment Index above 50.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of 18 manufacturing industries, six reported employment growth in March, in the following order: Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary Metals; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The six industries reporting a decrease in employment in March, in order, are: Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products. Six industries reported no change in employment.

Supplier Deliveries†
The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was faster for a sixth straight month in March, as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 44.8 percent, 0.4 percentage point lower than the 45.2 percent reported in February. This month’s reading indicates the fastest supplier delivery performance since March 2009, when the index registered 43.2 percent. Of the top six manufacturing industries, only Petroleum & Coal Products reported slower deliveries. “Panelist comments indicate that suppliers continue to have sufficient capacity levels to meet their current demand forecasts,” says Fiore. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

Two of 18 manufacturing industries reported slower supplier deliveries in March: Petroleum & Coal Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The 12 industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in March as compared to February — in the following order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; and Transportation Equipment.

Inventories
The Inventories Index registered 47.5 percent in March, 2.6 percentage points lower than the 50.1 percent reported for February. “Manufacturing inventories contracted compared to February. Of the six big manufacturing industries, two (Machinery; and Computer & Electronic Products) increased manufacturing inventories in March. Manufacturing inventories continue to be effectively managed by panelists’ companies as they work down total supply chain inventories,” says Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 44.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

Of 18 manufacturing industries, the seven reporting higher inventories in March — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; and Computer & Electronic Products. The seven industries reporting contracting inventories in March — in the following order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment.

Customers’ Inventories†
ISM’s Customers’ Inventories Index registered 48.9 percent in March, 2 percentage points higher than the 46.9 percent reported for February. “Customers’ inventory levels are now at the low end of the ‘just right’ level, as panelists’ companies continue to manage total supply chain inventories. March saw customer inventories approach restrictive levels for future output growth potential,” says Fiore.

Five industries reported customers’ inventories as too high in March: Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The five industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low in March are: Primary Metals; Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products. Seven industries reported no change in customers’ inventories in March compared to February.

Prices†
The ISM Prices Index registered 49.2 percent, 2.1 percentage points lower compared to the February reading of 51.3 percent, indicating raw materials prices decreased in March. The index dropped back into contraction (or “decreasing”) territory after one month in expansion preceded by four straight months below 50 percent. “Panelists’ comments support a return to more balanced supplier-buyer relationships. Sellers are more interested in filling order books, as demonstrated by panelists’ comments supporting reduced lead times. Also, future price increases are apparent for foundational purchased materials (steel, copper and aluminum). Of the top six manufacturing industries, two (Machinery; and Transportation Equipment) reported price increases in March. Panelists’ companies reporting ‘same’ or ‘lower’ prices (79 percent in March and 75 percent in February) support buyers beginning to increase their new order rates,” says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.9 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.

In March, eight industries — in the following order — reported paying increased prices for raw materials: Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The eight industries reporting paying decreased prices for raw materials in March — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Textile Mills; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.

Backlog of Orders†
ISM®’s Backlog of Orders Index registered 43.9 percent in March, a 1.2-percentage point decrease compared to February’s reading of 45.1 percent, indicating order backlogs contracted for the sixth consecutive month after a 27-month period of expansion. Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, one — Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products — expanded order backlogs in March. “The index continues to contract as adequately staffed factory floors work backlogs down amid weak new order levels and supplier delivery improvements,” says Fiore.

Two industries reported growth in order backlogs in March: Textile Mills; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. Twelve industries reported lower backlogs in March, in the following order: Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Paper Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; and Machinery.

New Export Orders†
ISM®’s New Export Orders Index registered 47.6 percent in March, 2.3 percentage points lower than the February reading of 49.9 percent. “The New Export Orders Index contracted in March for the eighth consecutive month after 25 straight months in expansion territory. Comments supported improved order levels from China and Europe, but activity remains weak,” says Fiore.

Four industries reported growth in new export orders in March: Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Paper Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The nine industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in March — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment.

Imports†
ISM®’s Imports Index registered 47.9 percent in March, a decrease of 2 percentage points compared to February’s figure of 49.9 percent. “The index contracted in March for the fifth consecutive month following a five-month period of expansion. Import performance declined during the month, contracting at a faster pace. Panelists’ comments indicate that the index reading reflects a continuation of sluggish demand, as Lunar New Year issues have passed,” says Fiore.

The four industries reporting an increase in import volumes in March are: Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The seven industries that reported lower volumes of imports in March — listed in the following order — are: Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products. Seven industries reported no change in imports in March compared to February.

†The Supplier Deliveries, Customers’ Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

Buying Policy
The average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in March was 178 days, an increase of two days compared to February. Average lead time in March for Production Materials was 87 days, a decrease of one day. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies was 46 days, an increase of three days.

Posted: April 3, 2023

Source: Institute for Supply Management