TEMPE, Ariz. — July 3, 2023 — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in June for the eighth consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The June Manufacturing PMI® registered 46 percent, 0.9 percentage point lower than the 46.9 percent recorded in May. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a seventh month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 45.6 percent, 3 percentage points higher than the figure of 42.6 percent recorded in May. The Production Index reading of 46.7 percent is a 4.4-percentage point decrease compared to May’s figure of 51.1 percent. The Prices Index registered 41.8 percent, down 2.4 percentage points compared to the May figure of 44.2 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 38.7 percent, 1.2 percentage points higher than the May reading of 37.5 percent. The Employment Index dropped into contraction, registering 48.1 percent, down 3.3 percentage points from May’s reading of 51.4 percent.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index figure of 45.7 percent is 2.2 percentage points higher than the 43.5 percent recorded in May. This figure, along with the previous seven, is the Supplier Deliveries Index’s lowest reading in since March 2009 (43.2 percent). (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Inventories Index dropped 1.8 percentage points to 44 percent; the May reading was 45.8 percent. The New Export Orders Index reading of 47.3 percent is 2.7 percentage points lower than May’s figure of 50 percent. The Imports Index remained in contraction territory, registering 49.3 percent, 2 percentage points higher than the 47.3 percent reported in May.”

Fiore continues, “The U.S. manufacturing sector shrank again, with the Manufacturing PMI losing ground compared to the previous month, indicating a faster rate of contraction. The June composite index reading reflects companies continuing to manage outputs down as softness continues and optimism about the second half of 2023 weakens. Demand eased again, with the (1) New Orders Index contracting but at a slower rate, (2) New Export Orders Index moving into contraction and (3) Backlog of Orders Index remaining at a level not seen since early in the coronavirus pandemic (May 2020). A potential bright spot: The Customers’ Inventories Index dropped into ‘too low’ territory, a positive for future production. Output/Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) was negative, with a combined 7.7-percentage point downward impact on the Manufacturing PMI® calculation. Panelists’ companies reduced production and began using layoffs to manage head counts, to a greater extent than in prior months, amid mixed sentiment about when significant growth will return. Inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — continue to accommodate future demand growth. The Supplier Deliveries Index continued to indicate faster deliveries, and the Inventories Index dropped further into contraction as panelists’ companies try to mitigate inventories exposure. The Prices Index fell further into ‘decreasing’ territory. Manufacturing lead times improved again but remain at elevated levels.

“Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, only one — Transportation Equipment — registered growth in June.

“Demand remains weak, production is slowing due to lack of work, and suppliers have capacity. There are signs of more employment reduction actions in the near term. Seventy-one percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in June, down from 76 percent in May. More industries contracted strongly, however, as the share of manufacturing GDP registering a composite PMI calculation at or below 45 percent — a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness — was 44 percent in June, compared to 31 percent in May,” said Fiore.

The four manufacturing industries that reported growth in June are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; and Transportation Equipment. The 11 industries reporting contraction in June, in the following order, are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Wood Products; Textile Mills; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery.

What Respondents Are Saying

“The slowing U.S. economy is causing the business forecast to be revised/reduced for the remainder of 2023. Customers are less inclined to purchase far in advance.” [Computer & Electronic Products]

“Customer orders have definitely slowed down. Our company thought the second half of 2023 would be better than the first half, but this doesn’t seem to be the case.” [Chemical Products]

“There were concerns that second-quarter sales were going to decrease and result in inventory levels rising; however, demand has remained stable so far. Projecting total end-of-year sales to be about where we were last year.” [Transportation Equipment]

“There is an elevated level of capital project review as recession concerns loom. While not delayed, spending and planning are being managed and prioritized.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]

“Markets are stabilizing in the second quarter of 2023 and appear to be trending downward for most commodity chemicals; however, demand versus supply has shifted to customers’ favor.” [Petroleum & Coal Products]

“Orders and business are steady with a healthy backlog, but new prospective orders seem to be getting pushed back into 2024.” [Machinery]

“North American demand stabilizing, but European markets showing slowing in the second half of 2023 and 2024.” [Fabricated Metal Products]

“Here we are almost halfway through the year, and while things are challenging, we may be doing all right.” [Nonmetallic Mineral Products]

“Input costs for materials continue to decline. Demand is trending to about 2019 levels, accounting for inflation. The COVID-driven demand has moderated.” [Paper Products]

“Maintaining a strong order backlog. Continue to struggle with hiring hourly factory workers and finding qualified management candidates — higher turnover than desired. Pricing has stabilized, but labor costs remain high.” [Primary Metals]

Manufacturing ISM Report On Business data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

Commodities Reported Up/Down In Price And In Short Supply 

Commodities Up in Price
Electrical Components (8); Electronic Components (5); and Steel — Carbon.

Commodities Down in Price
Aluminum; Aluminum Products; Corrugate (7); Crude Oil; Diesel (2); Freight (8); Ocean Freight; Pallets (2); Paper (2); Plastic Resins (13); Polypropylene (2); Steel (3); Steel — Hot Rolled (2); Steel Products; and Synthetic Rubber.

Commodities in Short Supply
Electrical Components (33); Electrical Controls and Equipment; Electronic Assemblies; Electronic Components (31); Hydraulic Components; Semiconductors (31); and Titanium.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

June 2023 Manfacturing Indext Summaries

Manufacturing PMI®
The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in June, as the Manufacturing PMI registered 46 percent, 0.9 percentage point lower than the reading of 46.9 percent recorded in May. “This is the eighth month of contraction and continuation of a downward trend that began in June 2022. That trend is reflected in the Manufacturing PMI’s 12-month average falling to 48.8 percent. Of the five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI, none are in growth territory. Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, only one (Transportation Equipment) registered growth in June. The New Orders Index logged a 10th month in contraction territory. This month, none of the 10 subindexes were above 50 percent for the period,” said Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A Manufacturing PMI above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the June Manufacturing PMI indicates the overall economy contracted in June for a seventh consecutive month after 30 straight months of expansion. “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI and the overall economy indicates that the June reading (46 percent) corresponds to a change of minus-1 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” said Fiore.

The Last 12 Monthes

New Orders
ISM’s New Orders Index contracted for the 10th consecutive month in June, registering 45.6 percent, an increase of 3 percentage points compared to May’s reading of 42.6 percent. “Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, only one (Transportation Equipment) reported increased new orders. New order levels remained stalled as panelists’ companies continue to experience uncertainty regarding future customer demand,” says Fiore. A New Orders Index above 52.7 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The five manufacturing industries that reported growth in new orders in June are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Transportation Equipment; and Paper Products. Nine industries reported a decline in new orders in June, in the following order: Wood Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Production
The Production Index registered 46.7 percent in June, 4.4 percentage points lower than the May reading of 51.1 percent, indicating a return to contraction after one month of expansion preceded by five consecutive months in contraction. “Of the top six industries, three — Transportation Equipment; Machinery; and Computer & Electronic Products — expanded in June. The index recorded its lowest reading since May 2020, when it registered 34.2 percent. With the large-scale contraction of backlogs and the absence of new orders, build rates are likely being managed down more aggressively,” says Fiore. An index above 52.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.

The eight industries reporting growth in production during the month of June are, in order: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; and Computer & Electronic Products. The seven industries reporting a decrease in production in June — in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

Employment
ISM’s Employment Index registered 48.1 percent in June, 3.3 percentage points lower than the May reading of 51.4 percent. “The index indicated employment contracted after two months of expansion preceded by two months of contraction. Of the six big manufacturing sectors, three (Machinery; Transportation Equipment; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) expanded. Labor management sentiment at panelists’ companies indicate a slowdown in hiring, with layoffs slightly more prevalent,” said Fiore. An Employment Index above 50.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of 18 manufacturing industries, six reported employment growth in June, in the following order: Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The six industries reporting a decrease in employment in June, in the following order, are: Textile Mills; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. Six industries reported no change in employment.

Supplier Deliveries†
The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was faster for the ninth straight month in June, as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 45.7 percent, 2.2 percentage points higher than the 43.5 percent reported in May. For context on the current run of faster supplier delivery performance: The Supplier Deliveries Index’s lowest reading in the last 14 years was in March 2009 (43.2 percent). While the index has been in contraction since October 2022, for the last seven months, the index has averaged 44.9 percent and always come in just behind its value of March 2009. Of the top six manufacturing industries, only Petroleum & Coal Products reported slower deliveries. “Panelists’ comments continue to indicate that suppliers have the capacity to meet all of their customers’ current demand forecasts,” said Fiore. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

Six of 18 manufacturing industries reported slower supplier deliveries in June, in the following order: Textile Mills; Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Paper Products. The nine industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in June as compared to May — in the following order — are: Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

Inventories
The Inventories Index registered 44 percent in June, 1.8 percentage points lower than the 45.8 percent reported for May. “Manufacturing inventories contracted at a faster rate compared to May. Of the six big industries, only one (Computer & Electronic Products) increased manufacturing inventories in June. In most of the other industries, manufacturing inventories continue to be managed down by panelists’ companies in support of lower production output. The index recorded its lowest level since January 2014 (43.9 percent),” said Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 44.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

Of 18 manufacturing industries, the three reporting higher inventories in June are: Textile Mills; Primary Metals; and Computer & Electronic Products. The 12 industries reporting contracting inventories in June — in the following order — are: Paper Products; Wood Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery.

Customers’ Inventories†
ISM’s Customers’ Inventories Index registered 46.2 percent in June, 5.2 percentage points lower than the 51.4 percent reported for May. “Customers’ inventory levels dropped back into the ‘too low’ range as panelists report their companies’ customers have demand for additional future deliveries from their suppliers, a positive for future production,” says Fiore.

The six industries reporting customers’ inventories as too high in June are, in order: Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The nine industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low in June — in the following order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Transportation Equipment; Primary Metals; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.

Prices†
The ISM Prices Index registered 41.8 percent, 2.4 percentage points lower compared to the May reading of 44.2 percent, indicating raw materials prices decreased in June for the second consecutive month. The index decreased again after a dramatic fall into contraction (or “decreasing”) territory after one month in expansion. “Panelists’ comments indicate that we are now in a buyers’ market, as sellers are concerned about filling order books to support their backlogs. Of the top six manufacturing industries, only one (Computer & Electronic Products) reported price increases in June. Eighty-nine percent of panelists’ companies reported ‘same’ or ‘lower’ prices in June, compared to 85 percent in May,” says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.9 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.

In June, three industries reported paying increased prices for raw materials: Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The 13 industries reporting paying decreased prices for raw materials in June — in the following order — are: Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; Wood Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Primary Metals; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; and Transportation Equipment.

Backlog of Orders†
ISM’s Backlog of Orders Index registered 38.7 percent, a 1.2-percentage point increase compared to May’s reading of 37.5 percent, indicating order backlogs contracted for the ninth consecutive month (though at a slower rate in June) after a 27-month period of expansion. Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, none expanded order backlogs in June. “The index remains in strong contraction consistent with the New Orders Index, as factories continue to work backlogs down amid continued weak new order levels,” said Fiore.

No industries reported growth in order backlogs in June. The 13 industries reporting lower backlogs in June — in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Plastics & Rubber Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Primary Metals; and Machinery.

New Export Orders†
ISM’s New Export Orders Index registered 47.3 percent in June, 2.7 percentage points lower than the May reading of 50 percent. “The New Export Orders Index indicated that export orders contracted in June after being unchanged in May, preceded by nine straight months in contraction territory and 25 months of expansion from July 2020 to July 2022. Comments now note the weak performance in order levels from China and Europe as an ongoing concern,” says Fiore.

Two industries reported growth in new export orders in June: Printing & Related Support Activities; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The eight industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in June — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. Six industries reported no change in exports in June compared to May.

Imports†
ISM’s Imports Index registered 49.3 percent in June, an increase of 2 percentage points compared to May’s figure of 47.3 percent. “The index contracted for the eighth consecutive month, at a slower rate in June, following a five-month period of expansion. Panelists’ comments again indicate that the index reading reflects sluggish demand. Shipping capacity and prices continue to be accommodative,” said Fiore.

The four industries reporting an increase in import volumes in June are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The 10 industries that reported lower volumes of imports in June — listed in the following order — are: Paper Products; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Computer & Electronic Products.

†The Supplier Deliveries, Customers’ Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

Buying Policy
The average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in June was 175 days, an increase of three days compared to May. Average lead time in June for Production Materials was 83 days, a decrease of one day. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies was 47 days, an increase of two days from May.

Posted: July 3, 2023

Source: Institute for Supply Management