TEMPE, Ariz. — October 2, 2023 — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in September for the 11th consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The Manufacturing PMI registered 49 percent in September, 1.4 percentage points higher than the 47.6 percent recorded in August. The overall economy expanded weakly after nine months of contraction following a 30-month period of expansion. (A Manufacturing PMI above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 49.2 percent, 2.4 percentage points higher than the figure of 46.8 percent recorded in August. The Production Index reading of 52.5 percent is a 2.5-percentage point increase compared to August’s figure of 50 percent. The Prices Index registered 43.8 percent, down 4.6 percentage points compared to the reading of 48.4 percent in August. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 42.4 percent, 1.7 percentage points lower than the August reading of 44.1 percent. The Employment Index registered 51.2 percent, up 2.7 percentage points from the 48.5 percent reported in August.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index figure of 46.4 percent is 2.2 percentage points lower than the 48.6 percent recorded in August. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM Report On Business index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Inventories Index increased by 1.8 percentage points to 45.8 percent; the August reading was 44 percent. The New Export Orders Index reading of 47.4 percent is 0.9 percentage point higher than August’s figure of 46.5 percent. The Imports Index remained in contraction territory, registering 48.2 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the 48 percent reported in August.”

Fiore continues, “The U.S. manufacturing sector continued its contraction trend but at a slower rate, recording its best performance since November 2022, when the PMI also registered 49 percent. Companies are still managing outputs appropriately as order softness continues, but the month-over-month PMI improvement in September is a clear positive. Demand eased marginally, with the (1) New Orders Index contracting, though at a slower rate, (2) New Export Orders Index continuing in contraction territory but with a marginal increase, and (3) Backlog of Orders Index declining. The Customers’ Inventories Index reading indicated improved supply chain efficiency, as output improved and customers’ inventories continued to decline. Output/Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) was positive, with a combined 5.2-percentage point upward impact on the Manufacturing PMI calculation. Panelists’ companies improved production compared to August and continued to manage head counts, primarily through attrition and hiring freezes. Inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — continued to accommodate future demand growth. The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated faster deliveries for the 12th straight month, at a faster rate compared to August, and the Inventories Index remained in contraction territory, but improved month over month. The Prices Index remained in ‘decreasing’ territory, 4.6 percentage points lower than the August reading, signifying a return to price reductions, but energy costs in August and September could possibly affect future material costs. Manufacturing supplier lead times continue to decrease, but at a slow pace.

“Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, two — Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Petroleum & Coal Products — registered growth in September.

“Demand remains soft, but production execution improved compared to August as panelists’ companies prepared for the fourth quarter and the close of the fiscal year. Suppliers continue to have capacity. Seventy-one percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in September, up from 62 percent in August. More importantly, the share of sector GDP registering a composite PMI calculation at or below 45 percent — a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness — was 6 percent in September, compared to 15 percent in August and 25 percent in July, a clear positive,” Fiore said.

The five manufacturing industries that reported growth in September are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Primary Metals; and Petroleum & Coal Products. The 11 industries reporting contraction in September — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Wood Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment.

What Respondents Are Saying

“In the evolving supply chain environment, customers are increasingly taking an active role in initiating new projects, looking for cost reduction opportunities and lead-time mitigation, with a growing emphasis on collaboration. Post-pandemic, customers have learned they need partners to navigate rough waters.” [Computer & Electronic Products]

“We need to coordinate very closely with suppliers in order to yield a more cost-competitive offer. More back and forth is needed to reach a reasonable total price.” [Chemical Products]

“Orders and production remain steady, and we are maintaining a healthy backlog. Continued inflation and wage adjustments continue to drive prices up, although we should get some relief from the markets stabilizing.” [Transportation Equipment]

“Cost increases are now generally isolated to specific commodities rather than blanket increases due to ‘inflation.’ ” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]

“Markets remain soft. Our customers have about-right inventory levels, but they paid more due to pandemic cost increases. Everyone is holding off on increasing inventories, hoping they can buy at lower costs.” [Apparel, Leather & Allied Products]

“Overall, things continue to be very steady: Sales and revenue are as expected, and the supply environment has stabilized greatly versus 2021-22. Some things to watch include the Panama Canal (drought), U.S.-China relations, and the impact the UAW (United Auto Workers) strike could have on suppliers of ours who support automotive production. But overall conditions feel stable.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]

“Cement negotiations have changed, with cement mills no longer offering annual or guaranteed pricing. We now want to contract more as a commodity, leaning toward quarterly, with fluctuating prices yet to be determined.” [Nonmetallic Mineral Products]

“A recession feels imminent. Money continues to be pushed into the bank markets, driving inflation rates really high. Most plants are buying less material or reducing consumption in the name of sustainability, as well as running at 80 percent of capacity. Prices of some products may increase for the upcoming winter weather.” [Petroleum & Coal Products]

“Business conditions and market demand remain strong. We are projected to be at capacity in the next 12 months.” [Primary Metals]

“New business development is coming onboard. However, many forecasts are set for the beginning of 2024. Hiring and retaining quality people is still a struggle.” [Textile Mills]

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

Commodities Reported Up/Down In Price And In Short Supply

Commodities Up in Price
Crude Oil (2); Diesel Fuel (2); Electronic Components; Labor — Temporary; Natural Gas (3); Petroleum Based Products; Plastic Resins*; Road Freight; Steel* (3); Steel Alloying Minerals; and Zinc.

Commodities Down in Price
Aluminum (4); Caustic Soda (3); Corrugate Boxes (2); Ocean Freight Rates; Plastic Resins* (16); Polypropylene (5); Steel* (6); Steel — Hot Rolled (5); and Steel Products (4).

Commodities in Short Supply
Electrical Components (36); Electrical Transmission Products (2); Electronic Components (34); Hydraulic Components (4); Labor — Construction; Semiconductors (34); and Steel Products.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
*Indicates both up and down in price.

September 2023 Manufacturing Index Summaries

Manufacturing PMI®
The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in September, as the Manufacturing PMI registered 49 percent, 1.4 percentage points higher than the reading of 47.6 percent recorded in August and its highest figure since November 2022 (49 percent). “This is the 11th month of contraction, but the third month of positive change. Of the five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI, two (the Production and Employment indexes) are in expansion territory, up from none in August, breaking a three-month streak of no such growth. This good news is somewhat counterbalanced by the New Orders Index logging its 13th month in contraction territory, though at a slower rate. Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, two — Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Petroleum & Coal Products — registered growth in September,” says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A Manufacturing PMI above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the September Manufacturing PMI indicates the overall economy grew slightly after contracting for nine consecutive months following 30 straight months of expansion. “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI and the overall economy indicates that the September reading (49 percent) corresponds to a change of plus-0.1 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” says Fiore.

The Last 12 Months

New Orders
ISM’s New Orders Index contracted for the 13th consecutive month in September, registering 49.2 percent, an increase of 2.4 percentage points compared to August’s reading of 46.8 percent. The index reached its highest level since August 2022, when it registered 50.4 percent. “Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, only one (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) reported increased new orders. New order levels contracted at a slower rate compared to August and production returned to expansion territory. However, backlog contraction accelerated, an indication that output exceeded demand in the period,” says Fiore. A New Orders Index above 52.7 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The five manufacturing industries that reported growth in new orders in September are: Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products. Eight industries reported a decline in new orders in September, in the following order: Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products.

Production
The Production Index registered 52.5 percent in September, 2.5 percentage points higher than the August reading of 50 percent, after two months of contraction preceded by one month of expansion and five months of contraction before that. The index reached its highest level since July 2022 (53.3 percent). “Of the top six industries, four — Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; and Computer & Electronic Products — expanded in September. Production output improved in the month as companies prepared for end-of-year delivery demands,” Fiore said. An index above 52.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.

The 10 industries reporting growth in production during the month of September — in the following order — are: Primary Metals; Textile Mills; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The six industries reporting a decrease in production in September — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Paper Products; and Chemical Products.

Employment
ISM’s Employment Index registered 51.2 percent in September, 2.7 percentage points higher than the August reading of 48.5 percent. “The index indicated employment expanded in September after contracting for three months. Of the six big manufacturing sectors, five (Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; and Machinery) expanded. Labor management sentiment at Business Survey Committee respondents’ companies continues to indicate a slowdown in hiring. This is reflected by the use of attrition, freezes and layoffs to address head counts, but such measures occurred at a lesser rate compared to August. In September, attrition remained the primary source of head-count reductions, but hiring freezes were more prevalent,” Fiore said. An Employment Index above 50.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of 18 manufacturing industries, seven reported employment growth in September in the following order: Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Machinery; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products. The eight industries reporting a decrease in employment in September, in the following order, are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Computer & Electronic Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

Supplier Deliveries†
The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations improved for the 12th straight month in September, as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 46.4 percent, 2.2 percentage points lower than the 48.6 percent reported in August. After registering 52.4 percent in September 2022, the index went into contraction territory in October and has been there since, with an average reading of 45.8 percent over the last 12 months. Of the top six manufacturing industries, only one (Transportation Equipment) reported slower deliveries. “Panelists’ comments continue to indicate that suppliers’ performance is improving,” says Fiore. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The five manufacturing industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in September are: Wood Products; Textile Mills; Paper Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Transportation Equipment. The nine industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in September as compared to August — in the following order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products.

Inventories
The Inventories Index registered 45.8 percent in September, 1.8 percentage points higher than the 44 percent reported in the prior month. “Manufacturing inventories contracted at a slower rate compared to August. None of the six big industries increased manufacturing inventories in September. Panelists’ companies continue to watch manufacturing inventory levels carefully, as future demand remains uncertain,” Fiore said. An Inventories Index greater than 44.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

Of 18 manufacturing industries, the two reporting higher inventories in September are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The 11 industries reporting contracting inventories in September — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; and Machinery.

Customers’ Inventories†
ISM’s Customers’ Inventories Index registered 47.1 percent in September, down 1.6 percentage points compared to the 48.7 reported in August. “Customers’ inventory levels continue to indicate an appropriate tension, as panelists report their companies’ customers have less of their products in inventory, a positive for future production,” Fiore said.

The four industries reporting customers’ inventories as too high in September are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Fabricated Metal Products. The 10 industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low in September — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products.

Prices†
The ISM Prices Index registered 43.8 percent, 4.6 percentage points lower compared to the August reading of 48.4 percent, indicating raw materials prices decreased in September for the fifth consecutive month. The index decreased compared to August (indicating a faster rate of price decreases) after a plunge into contraction (or “decreasing”) territory in May. “Panelists’ comments indicate that buyers and suppliers continue to aggressively negotiate price levels as commodity markets remain volatile. Recent increases in energy markets could have upward impact on the Prices Index in October. Of the top six manufacturing industries, only one (Petroleum & Coal Products) reported price increases in September. Eighty-seven percent of panelists’ companies reported ‘same’ or ‘lower’ prices in September, compared to 84 percent in August,” says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.9 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.

In September, the only industry that reported paying increased prices for raw materials is Petroleum & Coal Products. The 12 industries reporting paying decreased prices for raw materials in September — in the following order — are: Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; and Chemical Products.

Backlog of Orders†
ISM’s Backlog of Orders Index registered 42.4 percent, a 1.7-percentage point decrease compared to August’s reading of 44.1 percent, indicating order backlogs contracted for the 12th consecutive month (at a faster rate in September) after a 27-month period of expansion. Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, only Petroleum & Coal Products expanded order backlogs in September. “The index remains in strong contraction, reversing a three-month period of slowing contraction as production rates and new order levels attempt to reach a balance,” Fiore said.

The three industries reporting growth in order backlogs in September are: Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Primary Metals. The 11 industries reporting lower backlogs in September — in the following order — are: Paper Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Furniture & Related Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Fabricated Metal Products.

New Export Orders†
ISM’s New Export Orders Index registered 47.4 percent in September, 0.9 percentage point higher than the August reading of 46.5 percent. “The New Export Orders Index indicated that export orders contracted for the fourth month in a row in September after being unchanged in May, preceded by nine straight months in contraction territory and 25 months of expansion from July 2020 to July 2022. Comments continue to note the weak performance in order levels, especially from Europe,” Fiore said.

The three industries reporting growth in new export orders in September are: Wood Products; Primary Metals; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The six industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in September — in the following order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Machinery. Eight industries reported no change in new export orders in September compared to August.

Imports†
ISM’s Imports Index registered 48.2 percent in September, an increase of 0.2 percentage point compared to August’s figure of 48 percent. “Imports contracted for the 11th consecutive month, at a slightly slower rate in September. Reduced imports remain consistent with slowing demand. Shipping capacity and prices remain accommodative, but there are some indications of pricing pressure on container costs,” Fiore said.

The six industries reporting an increase in import volumes in September, in order, are: Textile Mills; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The six industries that reported lower volumes of imports in September — listed in the following order — are: Paper Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. Six industries reported no change in imports in September compared to August.

†The Supplier Deliveries, Customers’ Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

Buying Policy
The average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in September was 172 days, an increase of two days compared to August. Average lead time in September for Production Materials was 84 days, a decrease of three days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies was 43 days, an increase of one day compared to August.

Posted: October 2, 2023

Source: Institute for Supply Management