TEMPE, Ariz. — November 1, 2023 — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in October for the 12th consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.7 percent in October, 2.3 percentage points lower than the 49 percent recorded in September. The overall economy dropped back into contraction after one month of weak expansion preceded by nine months of contraction and a 30-month period of expansion before that. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.)

The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 45.5 percent, 3.7 percentage points lower than the figure of 49.2 percent recorded in September. The Production Index reading of 50.4 percent is a 2.1-percentage point decrease compared to September’s figure of 52.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 45.1 percent, up 1.3 percentage points compared to the reading of 43.8 percent in September. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 42.2 percent, 0.2 percentage point lower than the September reading of 42.4 percent. The Employment Index registered 46.8 percent, down 4.4 percentage points from the 51.2 percent reported in September.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index figure of 47.7 percent is 1.3 percentage points higher than the 46.4 percent recorded in September. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM Report On Business index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Inventories Index decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 43.3 percent; the September reading was 45.8 percent. The New Export Orders Index reading of 49.4 percent is 2 percentage points higher than September’s figure of 47.4 percent. The Imports Index remained in contraction territory, registering 47.9 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than the 48.2 percent reported in September.”

Fiore continued: “The U.S. manufacturing sector continued to contract and at a faster rate in October, dropping 2.3 percentage points to 46.7 percent, compared to September’s reading of 49 percent. Companies are still managing outputs appropriately as order softness continues. Demand eased, with the (1) New Orders Index contracting at a faster rate, (2) New Export Orders Index continuing in contraction territory but with a modest increase, and (3) Backlog of Orders Index declining slightly and remaining in strong contraction territory. The Customers’ Inventories Index reading reached ‘about right’ territory, not accommodative for future production. Output/Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) was negative, with a combined 6.5-percentage point downward impact on the Manufacturing PMI calculation. Panelists’ companies had stable month-over-month production and took more immediate actions to reduce head counts, using layoffs as the primary tool. Inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — continued to accommodate future demand growth. The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated faster deliveries for the 13th straight month, at a slower rate compared to September, and the Inventories Index dropped further into contraction territory. The Prices Index remained in ‘decreasing’ territory, signifying continuing overall price reductions in spite of October’s energy market turbulence. Manufacturing supplier lead times continue to decrease, but at a slower pace.

“Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, only one — Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products — registered growth in October.

“Demand remains soft, but production execution is stable compared to September as panelists’ companies continue to manage outputs, material inputs and — more aggressively — labor costs. Suppliers continue to have capacity. Seventy-five percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in October, up from 71 percent in September. More importantly, the share of sector GDP registering a composite PMI® calculation at or below 45 percent — a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness — was 37 percent in October, compared to 6 percent in September and 15 percent in August. Three of the top seven industries by contribution to manufacturing GDP fell into this category,” says Fiore.

The two manufacturing industries that reported growth in October are: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products. The 13 industries reporting contraction in October — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Wood Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment.

What Respondents Are Saying

“Markets remain tough, and we have focused more resources on sales and marketing to drive greater sales and new market penetration with our devices. Lots of leadership focus on what we can do in the near term that will also support long-term company goals.” [Computer & Electronic Products]

“Economy absolutely slowing down. Less optimism regarding the first quarter of 2024.” [Chemical Products]

“Backlog is starting to dip a bit. We’re hearing of cutbacks in 2024 ordering, but it’s still very strong compared to historical averages.” [Transportation Equipment]

“Markets appear to have slightly slowed. Certain commodities remain high.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]

“Seeing a slowdown on bookings, and our backlog is down to five days from 15 weeks earlier this year.” [Machinery]

“A slow fourth quarter, and we’re clearly in a mild industry recession. However, demand is down less than 5 percent, and customer confidence of a recovery in the second half of 2024 is solid. Supplier deliveries are stable, and suppliers are seeking more work. But they’re not yet willing to adjust prices to compete for it.” [Fabricated Metal Products]

“Business is decent — not great, but steady and solid. We are meeting our sales and margin goals, but it’s definitely hard to guess the future.” [Furniture & Related Products]

“Commercial constructions continue to remain ahead of 2022. We have some concern over 2024 regarding inflation, as well as gas and oil pricing potentially slowing down building.” [Nonmetallic Mineral Products]

“Demand for raw materials/chemicals appears to be stable heading into the fourth quarter.” [Petroleum & Coal Products]

“Orders continue to increase in some sectors. Construction industry-related products/orders are slowing down.” [Plastics & Rubber Products]

“Despite the ongoing United Auto Workers (UAW) strike, there’s a firmness and pickup in orders for the rest of the fourth quarter.” [Primary Metals]

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

Commodities Reported Up/Down In Price And In Short Supply

Commodities Up in Price
Crude Oil (3); Electronic Components (2); Labor — Professional Services; Labor — Temporary (2); Natural Gas (4); Plastic Resins* (2); Polypropylene; Road Freight* (2); Steel* (4); and Steel Products*.

Commodities Down in Price
Aluminum (5); Caustic Soda (4); Copper Based Products; Corrugate Boxes (3); Packaging; Plastic Resins* (17); Road Freight*; Steel* (7); Steel — Hot Rolled (6); Steel — Stainless; Steel Products* (5); and Wood Pallets.

Commodities in Short Supply
Electrical Components (37); Electrical Equipment; and Electronic Components (35).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
*Indicates both up and down in price.

October 2023 Manufacturing Index Summaries 

Manufacturing PMI®
The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in October, as the Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.7 percent, 2.3 percentage points lower than the reading of 49 percent recorded in September. “This is the 12th month of contraction. Of the five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI, only one (the Production Index) is in expansion territory, down from two in September. The New Orders Index logged its 14th month in contraction territory, and at a faster rate in October. Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, one — Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products — registered growth in October,” says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A Manufacturing PMI above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the October Manufacturing PMI indicates the overall economy contracted after one month of growth preceded by nine consecutive months of contraction and 30 months of expansion from June 2020 to November 2022. “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI and the overall economy indicates that the October reading (46.7 percent) corresponds to a change of minus-0.7 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” says Fiore.

The Past 12 Months

New Orders
ISM’s New Orders Index contracted for the 14th consecutive month in October, registering 45.5 percent, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points compared to September’s reading of 49.2 percent. “Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, only Transportation Equipment reported increased new orders. New order levels contracted at a faster rate compared to September as a result of sluggishness in three capital-focused industries (Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; and Fabricated Metal Products) that are among the seven biggest by share of manufacturing GDP,” says Fiore. A New Orders Index above 52.7 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The three manufacturing industries that reported growth in new orders in October are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; and Transportation Equipment. Ten industries reported a decline in new orders in October, in the following order: Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Textile Mills; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.

Production
The Production Index registered 50.4 percent in October, expanding slightly, but 2.1 percentage points lower than the September reading of 52.5 percent. This follows one month of “unchanged” status (a reading of 50 percent) preceded by two months of contraction, one month of expansion, and five months of contraction before that. “Of the top six industries, only Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products expanded in October. Production output in October was nearly equal to the previous month. Panelists’ companies stabilized production while reducing manufacturing inventory, a positive action. Meanwhile, they fully satisfied customer demands, as demonstrated by the ‘about right’ (operational) status of customers’ inventories,” says Fiore. An index above 52.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.

The four industries reporting growth in production during the month of October are: Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Primary Metals. The eight industries reporting a decrease in production in October — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Wood Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products. Six industries reported no change in production in October compared to September.

Employment
ISM’s Employment Index registered 46.8 percent in October, 4.4 percentage points lower than the September reading of 51.2 percent. “The index indicated employment contracted in October after one month of expansion and three months of contraction before that. Of the six big manufacturing sectors, three (Machinery; Transportation Equipment; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) expanded. Labor management sentiment at Business Survey Committee respondents’ companies continues to indicate a slowdown in hiring and, in October, an increase in staff reduction activity. Attrition, freezes and layoffs to reduce head counts increased during the period, with layoffs the primary tool, indicating a more urgent need to reduce staffing,” says Fiore. An Employment Index above 50.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of 18 manufacturing industries, four reported employment growth in October: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The 10 industries reporting a decrease in employment in October, in the following order, are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Supplier Deliveries†
The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations improved for the 13th straight month in October, as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 47.7 percent, 1.3 percentage points higher than the 46.4 percent reported in September. After registering 52.4 percent in September 2022, the index went into contraction territory in October and has been there since, with an average reading of 45.9 percent over the last 12 months. Of the top six manufacturing industries, only Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products reported slower deliveries. “Panelists’ comments continue to indicate that suppliers’ performance is improving,” says Fiore. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The two manufacturing industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in October are: Wood Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The seven industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in October — in the following order — are: Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products. In October, nine industries reported no change in supplier delivery performance compared to September.

Inventories
The Inventories Index registered 43.3 percent in October, 2.5 percentage points lower than the 45.8 percent reported in September. “Manufacturing inventories contracted at a faster rate compared to the previous month. Of the six big industries, only Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products increased manufacturing inventories in October. Panelists’ companies continue to manage manufacturing inventory levels down, as future demand remains uncertain,” says Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 44.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

Of 18 manufacturing industries, the only one reporting higher inventories in October is Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The 12 industries reporting lower inventories in October — in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Machinery; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.

Customers’ Inventories†
ISM’s Customers’ Inventories Index registered 48.6 percent in October, up 1.5 percentage points compared to the 47.1 reported in September. “Customers’ inventory levels moved toward ‘just right’ as panelists report their companies’ customers have an appropriate amount of their products in inventory, considered neutral for future production,” says Fiore.

The three industries reporting customers’ inventories as too high in October are: Textile Mills; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The eight industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low in October — in the following order — are: Paper Products; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Machinery. Six industries reported no change in customers’ inventories in October compared to September.

Prices†
The ISM Prices Index registered 45.1 percent, 1.3 percentage points higher compared to the September reading of 43.8 percent, indicating raw materials prices decreased in October for the sixth consecutive month. The index has been in contraction (or “decreasing”) territory since May, but a higher reading compared to September indicated a slower rate of price decreases. “Panelists’ comments indicate that buyers and suppliers continue to aggressively negotiate price levels for 2024, with commodity markets remaining volatile. Recent increases in energy markets primarily impacted the plastics markets in October. None of the top six manufacturing industries reported price increases in October. Eighty-nine percent of panelists’ companies reported ‘same’ or ‘lower’ prices in October, compared to 87 percent in September,” says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.9 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.

In October, the two industries that reported paying increased prices for raw materials are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products. The nine industries reporting paying decreased prices for raw materials in October — in the following order — are: Paper Products; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Petroleum & Coal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. Seven industries reported no change in input materials prices in October compared to September.

Backlog of Orders†
ISM®’s Backlog of Orders Index registered 42.2 percent, a 0.2-percentage point decrease compared to September’s reading of 42.4 percent, indicating order backlogs contracted for the 13th consecutive month (and at a faster rate in October) after a 27-month period of expansion. Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, two (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Transportation Equipment) expanded order backlogs in October. “The index remains in strong contraction as production rates and new order levels continue to have a negative effect on backlogs,” says Fiore.

The three industries reporting growth in order backlogs in October are: Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Transportation Equipment. The 11 industries reporting lower backlogs in October — in the following order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Chemical Products.

New Export Orders†
ISM’s New Export Orders Index registered 49.4 percent in October, 2 percentage points higher than the September reading of 47.4 percent. “The New Export Orders Index indicated that export orders contracted for the fifth month in a row in October; the index has shown weak performance for the last 15 months. Comments continue to note this weakness, but panelists indicate that trade appears to be improving,” says Fiore.

The six industries reporting growth in new export orders in October — in the following order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The six industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in October — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products.

Imports†
ISM’s Imports Index registered 47.9 percent in October, a decrease of 0.3 percentage point compared to September’s figure of 48.2 percent. “Imports contracted for the 12th consecutive month, at a slightly faster rate in October. Reduced imports remain consistent with slowing demand. Shipping capacity and prices remain accommodative,” says Fiore.

The three industries reporting an increase in import volumes in October are: Wood Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products. The nine industries that reported lower volumes of imports in October — listed in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Transportation Equipment. Six industries reported no change in imports in October compared to September.

†The Supplier Deliveries, Customers’ Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

Buying Policy
The average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in October was 171 days, a decrease of one day compared to September. Average lead time in October for Production Materials was 83 days, a decrease of one day. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies was 46 days, an increase of three days compared to September.

Posted: November 1, 2023

Source: Institute for Supply Management