MEMPHIS, Tenn. — February 9, 2019 — U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 14.5 million cotton acres this spring, up 2.9 percent from 2018 (based on USDA’s December 2018 estimate), according to the National Cotton Council’s 38th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey. (see table below)

Upland cotton intentions are 14.2 million acres, up 2.8 percent from 2018, while extra-long staple (ELS) intentions of 264,000 acres represent a 6.3 percent increase. The survey results were announced today at the NCC’s 2019 Annual Meeting in San Antonio, Texas.

Dr. Jody Campiche, NCC’s vice president, Economics & Policy Analysis, said: “Planted acreage is just one of the factors that will determine supplies of cotton and cottonseed. Ultimately, weather, insect pressures and agronomic conditions play a significant role in determining crop size.”

She said that with abandonment assumed at approximately 10 percent for the United States, Cotton Belt harvested area totals 13.0 million acres. Using an average U.S. yield per harvested acre of 840 pounds generates a cotton crop of 22.7 million bales, with 21.9 million upland bales and 782,000 ELS bales.

The NCC questionnaire, mailed in mid-December 2018 to producers across the 17-state Cotton Belt, asked producers for the number of acres devoted to cotton and other crops in 2018 and the acres planned for the coming season. Survey responses were collected through mid-January.

Campiche noted: “History has shown that U.S. farmers respond to relative prices when making planting decisions. The cotton-to-corn price ratio is lower than in 2018 due to higher corn prices as compared to last year. The cotton-to-soybean price ratio is higher than in 2018 due to lower soybean prices. A price ratio increase generally indicates an increase in cotton acreage.

“For the 2019 crop year, many producers have indicated a desire to reduce soybean acres due to low returns in 2018. As a result, corn is expected to provide the strongest competition for cotton acres in 2019.”

Southeast respondents indicate a 2.6 percent increase in the region’s upland area to 2.8 million acres. All states except North Carolina and Virginia show a decline in acreage. In Alabama, the survey responses indicate 0.6 percent less cotton acreage as well as a reduction in corn, wheat, soybeans, and ‘other crops’. In Florida, respondents indicated less cotton ‘other crops’, likely peanuts. In Georgia, cotton acreage is expected to decline by 3.6 percent. Georgia growers expect to plant more corn and ‘other crops’, likely peanuts. In North Carolina, a 0.1 percent increase is expected. Acreage of corn and ‘other crops’ is expected to increase in North Carolina, while soybean and wheat acreage is expected to decline. In South Carolina, cotton acreage is expected to decline by 5.4 percent, while corn and soybean acreage is expected to increase. Cotton acreage is expected to increase by 3.5 percent in Virginia as acreage moves away from soybeans and ‘other crops’.

In the Mid-South, growers have demonstrated their ability to adjust acreage based on market signals. The relative prices and potential returns of competing crops play a significant role in cotton acreage. Mid-South growers intend to plant 2.3 million acres, an increase of 13.6 percent from the previous year as some land is shifted away from soybeans. Across the region, all states intend to increase cotton acreage. Arkansas producers intend to plant 14.4 percent more cotton acreage and reduce soybeans and ‘other crops’. They also expect to increase corn acreage. The largest percentage increase was reported by Louisiana producers who expect to plant 22.2 percent more cotton acreage in 2019 and less corn and soybeans. In Mississippi, cotton acreage is expected to increase by 18.4 percent and plant less soybeans and ‘other crops’. Missouri growers expect to increase cotton acres by 6.9 percent and plant less soybeans. In Tennessee, cotton acreage is expected to increase by 5.9 percent as land shifts away from soybeans and wheat. All states in the Mid-South expect to plant less soybeans in 2019.

Southwest growers intend to plant 8.8 million cotton acres, a 2.2 percent increase. Increases in cotton area are expected in each of the region’s three states. In Kansas, producers intend to plant 3.4 percent more cotton acres along with more wheat and less ‘other crops’, likely sorghum. In Oklahoma, a 1.0 percent increase in cotton acreage is expected. Oklahoma growers also plan to increase acreage of wheat and ‘other crops’. Texas acreage is expected to increase by 2.3 percent.

Far West producers are expecting to plant 86,000 upland cotton acres — a 2.9 percent increase from 2018. Cotton acreage is expected to increase in Arizona and California and decrease in New Mexico. Results for Arizona suggest a 1.0 percent increase in upland cotton acres and a decrease in all other crops. In California, growers intend to plant 14.4 percent more upland cotton acres and more ELS cotton and wheat.

Many producers will continue to face difficult economic conditions in 2019. Production costs remain high, and unless producers have good yields, current prices may not be enough to cover all production expenses. Despite these challenges, cotton is still the better alternative for many growers. Based on current prices, projected cotton returns are currently more favorable than some competing commodities. Improved seed varieties continue to increase yield potential and improve cotton’s profitability. In the West, expected water availability may be influencing cotton acreage decisions.

NCC delegates were reminded the expectations are a snapshot of intentions based on market conditions at survey time with actual plantings influenced by changing market conditions/weather.

Prospective 2019 U.S. Cotton Area

Posted February 9, 2019

Source: National Cotton Council (NCC)

MEMPHIS, Tenn. — February 9, 2019 — National Cotton Council economists point to a few key factors that will shape the U.S. cotton industry’s 2019 economic outlook. This past year can be characterized as a year with significant uncertainty and volatility in the global economy and the world cotton market. For this outlook, the ultimate fate of the tariffs is a significant wildcard impacting the global market. Based on the positive statements resulting from the recent negotiations, the NCC assumes that the additional tariffs being imposed by the two countries will be removed in advance of the 2019 marketing year.

In her analysis of the NCC Annual Planting Intentions survey results, Campiche said the NCC projects 2019 U.S. cotton acreage to be 14.5 million acres, 2.9 percent more than 2018. However, it is important to note that although the survey results suggest a slight increase in acreage, the increase is largely the result of weaker competition from soybeans.

Overall abandonment is projected to be lower in 2019 because most regions currently have adequate moisture levels. With abandonment assumed at approximately 10 percent for the United States, Cotton Belt harvested area totals 13.0 million acres. Using an average 2019 U.S. yield per harvested acre of 840 pounds generates a cotton crop of 22.7 million bales, with 21.9 million upland bales and 782,000 extra-long staple bales. U.S. cottonseed production is projected to increase to 7.0 million tons in 2019.

Regarding domestic mill cotton use, the NCC is projecting a modest increase of U.S. mill use to 3.25 million bales in the 2019 crop year. As the single largest user of U.S. cotton, U.S. mills continue to be critically important to the health of the cotton industry. In the face of rising textile imports from Asian suppliers, the U.S. textile industry has focused on new investment and technology adoption in order to remain competitive.

Campiche noted that export markets continue to be U.S. raw fiber’s primary outlet. World trade is projected to be higher in the 2018 marketing year, but the trade tensions and increased competition from other major exporting countries has led to a decline in the U.S. trade share. Despite the decline, the U.S. will remain the largest exporter of cotton in 2018. U.S. exports are projected to reach 15.0 million bales in the 2018 marketing year.

Prior to the implementation of tariffs, the United States was in a prime position to capitalize on the increase in Chinese cotton imports. With the imposition of the 25.0 percent tariff, China has turned to other suppliers during the 2018 marketing year, allowing Brazil, Australia, and other countries to gain market share. Vietnam is currently the top export market for the 2018 crop year, followed by China and Mexico.

China is projected to consume 40.5 million bales in 2018. For the 2018 crop year, China is expected to import 7.5 million bales, which is 1.8 million bales higher than in 2017. The gap between China’s cotton consumption and production is currently around 13 million bales. From 2015-2018, the gap was filled with reserve sales and a small level of imports. The reserve stock level now is considered to be approaching a normal or maintainable level, and China is expected to increase imports in 2019.

Assuming a resolution to the U.S.-China trade dispute, China is expected to increase mill use in 2019 to 41.4 million bales. With a further reduction in stocks for the 2018 crop year, China’s imports are expected to increase in the 2019 crop year to 11.1 million bales. Chinese stocks are projected to fall by 4.2 million bales during the 2019 marketing year to 28.2 million bales. With a resolution to the U.S.-China trade dispute, the United States is expected to export more cotton to China in the 2019 marketing year and gain back some market share.

U.S. exports are projected to increase to 17.4 million bales in the 2019 marketing year. If realized, it would represent the 2nd highest level of U.S. exports, second only to the 2005 marketing year. When combined with U.S. mill use, total offtake falls short of expected production, and ending stocks are projected at 6.1 million bales. In absolute terms, stocks would be the highest since the end of the 2008 marketing year. A stocks-to-use ratio of 29.4 percent would be the highest since the 2015 marketing year.

Campiche said world production is estimated to increase by 7.0 million bales in 2019 to 125.5 million bales, which would be the highest level since the 2011 crop. World mill use is projected to increase to 126.5 million bales in 2019. Ending stocks are projected to decline by 1.3 million bales in the 2019 marketing year to 74.2 million bales, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 58.7 percent. Stocks outside of China are projected to increase to a record level in 2019.

Based on the underlying assumptions and resulting cotton balance sheet, the level of stocks outside of China in the 2018 marketing year along with higher projected production in 2019 may contribute to a more bearish tone for cotton prices in the coming year. However, the increase in world trade due to higher Chinese imports along with a resolution to the U.S.-China trade dispute could provide some price support.

As with any projections into the future, there are uncertainties and unknowns that can change the outcome. For the coming year, a key factor affecting the U.S. cotton industry is the ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute and the 25 percent tariff on U.S. cotton imported into China.

Under a scenario with tariffs remaining in place, the projected expansion in world trade and the opportunity to backfill trade into other markets would allow U.S. exports in the 2019 marketing year to increase from 2018, but not to the extent as expected in the absence of tariffs. The longer-term imposition of tariffs also would dramatically increase the likelihood of permanent losses in market share in China.

Posted February 9, 2019

Source: National Cotton Council (NCC)

ALEXANDRIA, Va. — February 8, 2019 — The TRSA 2nd Annual Leadership Summit will be held on June 19 at the Hotel Monteleone in New Orleans. This summit will build on last year’s highly successful outing which created opportunities for industry leadership to improve management team relations within participating companies. Scheduled as a pre-event to the Clean Show, industry CEOs/Executives should take this opportunity to recognize their young executives and emerging leaders (a concept critical to retaining talent) and foster collaboration in developing the next generations of top management.

TRSA welcomes keynote speaker and NFL icon Archie Manning, who will bring his unique perspective on leadership and teamwork to summit attendees. Manning is a beloved legend of the NFL’s New Orleans Saints, author, and sought-after speaker on leadership and family dynamics. Manning knows the importance of instilling and living by four principles for success: leadership, depending on others, being flexible, and playing the game, and he’s ready to coach you and your team to victory with this fail-proof game plan. Gain a deeper understanding of top traits shared by great leaders such as attitude, work ethic, preparation, and why skills that foster an attitude of teamwork need to be cultivated.

Archie Manning attended the University of Mississippi (Ole Miss) where he was the starting quarterback for three seasons, two-time All-Southeastern Conference selection and third in the Heisman Trophy voting in 1970. Manning was the second overall pick in the 1971 National Football League (NFL) Draft and played 10 seasons for the New Orleans Saints, earning two Pro Bowl selections and was the NFC Player of the Year in 1978. He has mentored and inspired sons Peyton and Eli Manning, who were top quarterbacks in college and have had award-winning professional level careers with the NFL, with both having been awarded Super Bowl MVP’s. Archie and son Peyton Manning coauthored Manning: A Father, His Sons and A Football Legacy, which follows two generations of this family’s drive to succeed in life and in football. Manning was selected Father of the Year by the National Father’s Day Council in 2006. He currently serves in public relations and is a popular speaker on leadership, teamwork and motivation.

Glean better tools to connect with those you lead in Connelly Hayward’s workshop, How to Get Buy-in From Those You Lead. Hayward specializes in talent development, organizational development and operational readiness. He works with companies who have an entrepreneurial spirit, are growth-minded and people-focused. You’ll will take home specific tools and methodologies to improve influence, familiarize yourself with communication and behavioral styles to better understand that not everyone interprets things the same way. The summit will close with a facilitated panel of industry leaders who will share their successes and lessons learned on Succession Planning. Learn more about the Leadership Summit and register at www.trsa.org/leadership.

Summit attendees will benefit from attending the TRSA Clean Show Experience in conjunction with the 2019 Clean Show (www.cleanshow.com), June 19-23 in New Orleans, LA. TRSA’s high-value networking and professional development opportunities that make up the Clean Show Experience include the welcome reception, networking breakfasts and lunches and educational sessions in a single advance registration. When you register for the TRSA Clean Show Experience, you will select which of these events to attend.

Leadership Summit attendees will have an opportunity to attend the signature event in the TRSA Clean Show Experience – the opening reception on June 19 – which immediately follows the close of the Summit. One of the most-anticipated and best-attended networking functions of the year for linen, uniform and facility service operators, this is a chance for Summit attendees to relax and network on a grand scale with more than 400 TRSA colleagues. Experience a full immersion into the city known as “The Big Easy” at Mardi Gras World Float Den & Grand Oaks Mansion. At Mardi Gras World Float Den, you’ll get an up-close look at the behind-the-scenes efforts that go in to creating the spectacular parade floats and other New Orleans Mardi Gras traditions. The Grand Oaks Mansion is an awe-inspiring, indoor replica of an antebellum mansion that will transport you back in time for a vintage Louisiana experience, where you’ll enjoy cocktails and hors d’oeuvres while enjoying a dramatic view of the Mississippi River.

The TRSA Clean Show Experience continues June 20-23 at the Morial Convention Center with the offering of a variety of networking and educational opportunities developed to connect you with linen, uniform and facility services peers. Get high value-collaboration by enjoying breakfasts and lunches with industry leaders and take advantage of Clean Show Experience professional development sessions that will send you home with tools you can immediately implement in your company.

Bring yourself and other company leaders to TRSA Clean Show Experience and the 2nd Annual Leadership Summit this June. Register today and discover more information on these June events at www.trsa.org/leadership or www.trsa.org/experience. Information about the biennial Clean Show is at www.cleanshow.com.

“Enhancing the skills of our team members is vital to our success as an industry and TRSA’s 2019 professional development opportunities show commitment to industry professionalism and best-management practices. In a highly competitive employment market, developing the industry skills and knowledge needed for success is key to recognizing, rewarding and retaining workers who will be the industry leaders of tomorrow,” said TRSA Chairman Jim Buik, president and owner of the Roscoe Co., Chicago.

Posted February 8, 2019

Source: TRSA