TEMPE, Ariz. — January 3, 2024 — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in December for the 14th consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.4 percent in December, up 0.7 percentage point from the 46.7 percent recorded in November. The overall economy continued in contraction for a third month after one month of weak expansion preceded by nine months of contraction and a 30-month period of expansion before that. (A Manufacturing PMI above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 47.1 percent, 1.2 percentage points lower than the figure of 48.3 percent recorded in November. The Production Index reading of 50.3 percent is a 1.8-percentage point increase compared to November’s figure of 48.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 45.2 percent, down 4.7 percentage points compared to the reading of 49.9 percent in November. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 45.3 percent, 6 percentage points higher than the November reading of 39.3 percent. The Employment Index registered 48.1 percent, up 2.3 percentage points from the 45.8 percent reported in November.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index figure of 47 percent is 0.8 percentage point higher than the 46.2 percent recorded in November. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM Report On Business index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Inventories Index decreased by 0.5 percentage point to 44.3 percent; the November reading was 44.8 percent. The New Export Orders Index reading of 49.9 percent is 3.9 percentage points higher than November’s figure of 46 percent. The Imports Index remained in contraction territory, registering 46.4 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the 46.2 percent reported in November.”

Fiore continues, “The U.S. manufacturing sector continued to contract, but at a slightly slower rate in December as compared to November. Companies are still managing outputs appropriately as order softness continues. Demand eased, with the (1) New Orders Index contracting at a faster rate, (2) New Export Orders Index essentially flat, and (3) Backlog of Orders Index climbing back above 40 percent but still in fairly strong contraction territory. The Customers’ Inventories Index returned to contraction, becoming more accommodative for future production. Output/Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) contracted but improved, with a combined 4.1-percentage point upward impact on the Manufacturing PMI calculation. Panelists’ companies maintained production levels month over month and continued actions to reduce head counts in December, primarily through layoffs. Inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — continued to accommodate future demand growth. The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated faster deliveries for the 15th straight month, and the Inventories Index moved downward while remaining in moderate contraction territory. The Prices Index dropped further into ‘decreasing’ territory, signifying soft energy markets, offset by increases in the steel and aluminum markets. Manufacturing supplier lead times continue to decrease (supported by panelists’ comments), a positive for future economic activity.

“None of the six biggest manufacturing industries registered growth in December.

“Demand remains soft, and production execution is stable compared to November, as panelists’ companies continue to manage outputs, material inputs and labor costs. Suppliers continue to have capacity. Eighty-four percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in December, up from 65 percent in November. More importantly, the share of sector GDP registering a composite PMI calculation at or below 45 percent — a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness — was 48 percent in December, compared to 54 percent in November and 35 percent in October. Among the top six industries by contribution to manufacturing GDP, three (Machinery; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Computer & Electronic Products) had a PMI at or below 45 percent, the same number as the previous month,” Fiore said.

The only manufacturing industry to report growth in December is Primary Metals. The 16 industries reporting contraction in December — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; Wood Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products.

What Respondents Are Saying

“Anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve holding off on interest-rate changes will encourage more companies to spend on capital investments again. As budgets get approval after the start of the calendar year, this should help drive investment and increase manufacturing activity once again.” [Computer & Electronic Products]

“Overall, order intake has picked up over the last quarter and a backlog of projects is beginning to accumulate.” [Chemical Products]

“Demand is up across the board. We are starting to see back orders grow again.” [Transportation Equipment]

“Commodity costs are decreasing. Supply is readily available, and customers are still ordering to last year’s volumes.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]

“Business is slowing. Finished goods inventories are growing.” [Machinery]

“We are forecasting a somewhat strong year for 2024. We’re currently mildly optimistic for how next year will play out.” [Fabricated Metal Products]

“We are seeing stronger demand from our American Automotive OEM customers now that the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike has been resolved. Looking at a very strong first quarter of 2024.” [Primary Metals]

“Higher financing costs have diminished demand for residential investment. Customers are delaying a portion of their plans until borrowing costs are reduced. We are impacted with reduced new orders, diminished backlog of orders and uncertain short-term demand for products and services.” [Wood Products]

“Finishing the year similar to 2022; however, 2023 was more erratic. Working to restore inventory position to ensure we have appropriate safety stock.” [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]

“Business conditions are good; sales and production are tracking in accordance with forecasts.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

Commodities Reported Up/Down In Price And In Short Supply 

Commodities Up in Price
Aluminum*; Electrical Components (2); Electronic Components (4); Fasteners; Labor – Temporary (4); Polypropylene (3); Steel (6); Steel – Cold Rolled (2); Steel – Hot Rolled (2); Steel – Scrap; and Steel Products*.

Commodities Down in Price
Aluminum* (7); Copper Products; Corrugate; Corrugated Boxes (5); Crude Oil (2); Diesel (2); Natural Gas; Packaging Materials; Pallets; Plastic Resins; Stainless Steel Products; and Steel Products* (7).

Commodities in Short Supply
Electrical Components (39); Electronic Components (37); Labor — Skilled/Technical; and Semiconductors (2).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
*Indicates both up and down in price.

December 2023 Manufacturing Index Summaries

Manufacturing PMI®
The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in December, as the Manufacturing PMI registered 47.4 percent in December, up 0.7 percentage point compared to November’s reading of 46.7 percent. “This is the 14th month of contraction. Four out of the five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI are in contraction territory, down from all five in November. The New Orders Index logged its 16th month in contraction territory at a faster rate in December. Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, none registered growth in December,” says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A Manufacturing PMI above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the December Manufacturing PMI indicates the overall economy contracted for a third straight month after one month of growth preceded by nine consecutive months of contraction and 30 months of expansion from June 2020 to November 2022. “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI and the overall economy indicates that the December reading (47.4 percent) corresponds to a change of minus-0.5 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” says Fiore.

The Last 12 Months

New Orders
ISM’s New Orders Index contracted for the 16th consecutive month in December, registering 47.1 percent, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points compared to November’s reading of 48.3 percent. “Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, only Chemical Products reported increased new orders, a positive indicator for the entire manufacturing industry sector. New order levels contracted at a faster rate compared to November as a result of continuing sluggishness in four capital-focused industries — Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment (though transitory); Machinery; and Fabricated Metal Products — that are among the seven biggest by share of manufacturing GDP,” says Fiore. A New Orders Index above 52.7 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The four manufacturing industries that reported growth in new orders in December are: Textile Mills; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Chemical Products. The 13 industries reporting a decline in new orders in December, in the following order: Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

Production
The Production Index moved back into expansion territory in December, registering 50.3 percent, 1.8 percentage points higher than the November reading of 48.5 percent. The November contraction was preceded by two months of expansion, “unchanged” status (a reading of 50 percent) in August, and two months of contraction before that. “Of the top six industries, two — Transportation Equipment; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products — expanded in December. Panelists’ companies are meeting customer demand, as demonstrated by the Customers’ Inventories Index registering on the low side of ‘about right’ status,” says Fiore. An index above 52.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.

The three industries reporting growth in production during the month of December are: Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Primary Metals. The 13 industries reporting a decrease in production in December — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.

Employment
ISM’s Employment Index registered 48.1 percent in December, 2.3 percentage points higher than the November reading of 45.8 percent. “The index indicated employment contracted again in December (but at a slower rate) after one month of expansion and three months of contraction before that. Of the six big manufacturing sectors, two (Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products) expanded. Labor management sentiment at Business Survey Committee respondents’ companies continues to indicate a slowdown in hiring and, in December, a continuation of staff-reduction activity. Attrition, freezes and layoffs to reduce head counts was activity similar to November, with layoffs being the most common measure. Panelists’ comments were equally split between companies hiring and others reducing their labor forces, as was the case in November,” says Fiore. An Employment Index above 50.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of 18 manufacturing industries, three reported employment growth in December: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products. The nine industries reporting a decrease in employment in December, in the following order, are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Textile Mills; Machinery; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. Six industries reported no change in employment in December compared to November.

Supplier Deliveries†
Delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was faster for the 15th straight month in December, as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 47 percent, 0.8 percentage point higher than the 46.2 percent reported in November. After registering 52.4 percent in September 2022, the index went into contraction territory in October and has been there since, with an average reading of 46 percent over the last 12 months, up from a rolling 12-month average of 45.8 percent in November. Of the top six manufacturing industries, only Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products reported slower deliveries, reflecting the industry’s seasonality. “Panelists’ comments continue to indicate that suppliers’ performance is improving,” says Fiore. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The three manufacturing industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in December are: Furniture & Related Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The seven industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in December — in the following order — are: Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products. Eight industries reported no change in delivery performance in December compared to November.

Inventories
The Inventories Index registered 44.3 percent in December, 0.5 percentage point lower than the 44.8 percent reported in November. “Manufacturing inventories contracted at a slightly faster rate compared to the previous month. Of the six big industries, only Chemical Products increased manufacturing inventories in December. This is considered a positive indicator for future chemicals output growth as well as overall improvement in the other 17 industry sectors, as Chemical Products is a good gauge of total manufacturing demand. Overall, panelists’ companies continue to manage manufacturing inventory levels down, as companies prepare for fiscal year closure,” says Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 44.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

Of 18 manufacturing industries, four reported higher inventories in December: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; and Furniture & Related Products. The 13 industries reporting lower inventories in December — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Paper Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Customers’ Inventories†
ISM’s Customers’ Inventories Index registered 48.1 percent in December, down 2.7 percentage points compared to the 50.8 reported in November. “Customers’ inventory levels sagged, moving down into the lower end of ‘just right,’ as panelists report their companies’ customers have a shortage of their products in inventory. This is considered neutral for future production,” says Fiore.

The six industries reporting customers’ inventories as too high in December — in the following order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Computer & Electronic Products. The six industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low in December, in order, are: Primary Metals; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery.

Prices†
The ISM Prices Index registered 45.2 percent, 4.7 percentage points lower compared to the November reading of 49.9 percent, indicating raw materials prices decreased in December for the eighth consecutive month. The index has been in contraction (or “decreasing”) territory since May, and a lower reading compared to November indicated a faster rate of price decreases. “Panelists’ comments indicate that buyers and suppliers continue to negotiate price levels for 2024, with commodity markets remaining highly volatile. Recent decreases in energy markets have been offset by increases in the steel markets. One of the top six manufacturing industries that is heavily steel dependent (Machinery, for the second month in a row) reported price increases in December. Eighty-six percent of panelists’ companies reported ‘same’ or ‘lower’ prices in December, compared to 84 percent in November,” says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.9 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.

In December, the four industries that reported paying increased prices for raw materials are: Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The eight industries reporting paying decreased prices for raw materials in December — in the following order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Primary Metals; Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products. Six industries reported no change in input prices in December compared to November.

Backlog of Orders†
ISM’s Backlog of Orders Index registered 45.3 percent, a 6-percentage point gain compared to November’s reading of 39.3 percent, indicating order backlogs contracted for the 15th consecutive month (at a notably slower rate in December) after a 27-month period of expansion. Two of the six largest manufacturing sectors (Petroleum & Coal Products; and Chemical Products) expanded order backlogs in December. “The index remains in contraction as production rates and new order levels continue to have a negative effect on backlogs but to a lesser extent in December. The index registered its highest reading since September 2022, when it was at 50.9 percent,” says Fiore.

Of 18 manufacturing industries, the five that are reporting growth in order backlogs in December are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Chemical Products. The nine industries reporting lower backlogs in December — in the following order — are: Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.

New Export Orders†
ISM’s New Export Orders Index registered 49.9 percent in December, 3.9 percentage points higher than the November reading of 46 percent. “The New Export Orders Index indicated that export orders contracted for the seventh consecutive month in December, but at a much slower rate. The index has shown weak performance for the last 17 months. However, for the first time in many months, panelists are more bullish on export activity, for both the Asia-Pacific region and Europe,” says Fiore.

The six industries reporting growth in new export orders in December — in the following order — are: Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; and Transportation Equipment. The five industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in December are: Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.

Imports†
ISM’s Imports Index registered 46.4 percent in December, an increase of 0.2 percentage point compared to November’s figure of 46.2 percent. “Imports contracted for the 14h consecutive month, at a slightly slower rate in December. Reduced imports remain consistent with slowing demand. Shipping capacity, prices and lead times continue to be accommodative,” says Fiore.

The two industries reporting an increase in import volumes in December are: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Primary Metals. The 10 industries that reported lower volumes of imports in December — listed in the following order — are: Wood Products; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Transportation Equipment. Six industries reported no change in imports in December.

†The Supplier Deliveries, Customers’ Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

Buying Policy
The average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in December was 174 days, a decrease of four days compared to November. Average lead time in December for Production Materials was 82 days, an increase of three days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies was 46 days, an increase of three days compared to November.

Posted: January 3, 2024

Source: Institute for Supply Management