TEMPE, Ariz. — November 2, 2020 — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in October, with the overall economy notching a sixth consecutive month of growth, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

“The October Manufacturing PMI® registered 59.3 percent, up 3.9 percentage points from the September reading of 55.4 percent and the highest since September 2018 (59.3 percent). This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the sixth month in a row after a contraction in April, which ended a period of 131 consecutive months of growth. The New Orders Index registered 67.9 percent, an increase of 7.7 percentage points from the September reading of 60.2 percent. The Production Index registered 63 percent, an increase of 2 percentage points compared to the September reading of 61 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 55.7 percent, 0.5 percentage point higher compared to the September reading of 55.2 percent. The Employment Index registered 53.2 percent, an increase of 3.6 percentage points from the September reading of 49.6 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 60.5 percent, up 1.5 percentage points from the September figure of 59 percent. The Inventories Index registered 51.9 percent; 4.8 percentage points higher than the September reading of 47.1 percent. The Prices Index registered 65.5 percent, up 2.7 percentage points compared to the September reading of 62.8 percent. The New Export Orders Index registered 55.7 percent; an increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to the September reading of 54.3 percent. The Imports Index registered 58.1 percent, a 4.1-percentage point increase from the September reading of 54 percent.

“The manufacturing economy continued its recovery in October. Survey Committee members reported that their companies and suppliers continue to operate in reconfigured factories; with every month, they are becoming more proficient at expanding output. Panel sentiment was optimistic (two positive comments for every cautious comment), a slight decrease compared to September. Demand expanded, with the (1) New Orders Index growing at strong levels, supported by the New Export Orders Index expanding moderately, (2) Customers’ Inventories Index at its lowest figure since June 2010 (35.8 percent), a level considered a positive for future production, and the (3) Backlog of Orders Index expanding at a slightly faster rate compared to the prior three months. Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) contributed positively (a combined 5.6-percentage point increase) to the Manufacturing PMI calculation, with five of the top six industries continuing to expand output strongly. The Employment Index broke into expansion territory for the first time since July 2019. Inputs — expressed as supplier deliveries, inventories and imports — continued to indicate input-driven constraints to production expansion, but at slower rates compared to September, due to a return to growth in inventory levels. Inputs improved compared to September and contributed positively to the Manufacturing PMI calculation, with a combined 6.3-percentage point increase. (The Supplier Deliveries and Inventories indexes directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI; the Imports Index does not.) Prices continued to expand at higher rates, reflecting a continued shift to seller pricing power.

“Among the six biggest manufacturing industries, five (Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment) registered strong growth.

“Manufacturing performed well for the third straight month, with demand, consumption and inputs registering growth indicative of a normal expansion cycle. While certain industry sectors are experiencing difficulties that will continue in the near term, the overall manufacturing community continues to exceed expectations,” Fiore said.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 15 reported growth in October, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Wood Products; Chemical Products; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The two industries reporting contraction in October are: Textile Mills; and Printing & Related Support Activities.

What Respondents Are Saying

“COVID-19 continues to have an effect on supplier support and operations, more from a decreased labor perspective rather than unavailable material.” (Computer & Electronic Products)

“Business continues to be robust. Sales are greater than expectations, and cost pressures are modest. There is posturing by suppliers on market price increases for corrugated and polypropylene, yet no firm price increases at this time. We expect a strong finish to 2020 and a solid start in 2021.” (Chemical Products)

“Sales continue to be strong — up 4 percent this September compared to September 2019. The year-to-date level is still 21 percent below last year due to the [COVID-19] shutdown, but sales are stronger than expected and forecast to stay strong through the first quarter of 2021.” (Transportation Equipment)

“Increased production due to stores stocking up for the second wave of COVID-19.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)

“Continue to see increases in customer demand. We still are not back to pre-COVID-19 levels but are continually improving.” (Fabricated Metal Products)

“Construction materials have leveled off but continue to be at an all-time high. Mills for board sheet stock have pushed out lead times citing increasing backlogs related to the pandemic and increased supply in the housing market.” (Furniture & Related Products)

“Business is almost back to normal levels; however, customers are still cautious with capital spending.” (Machinery)

“Business levels have just about returned to pre-COVID-19 levels. Our company is remaining conservative with fixed-cost spending, knowing the uncertainties that lie ahead with COVID-19 and its potential impact globally.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)

“October order books are the strongest we have seen in the past six months.” (Paper Products)

“We continue to see stronger month-over-month orders in plastic injection molding.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)

Manufacturing ISM Report On Business data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.

Commodities Reported Up/Donw In Price And In Short Supply

Commodities Up in Price

Aluminum (5); Aluminum Products; Base Oils; Copper (5); Corn; Corrugate; Ethylene; Freight; High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) Products (4); Lumber (4); Plastic Products; Plastic Resins (2); Polyethylene Film; Polyethylene Resins; Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) Bottles; Polypropylene (4); Polyvinyl Chloride; Precious Metals (4); Propylene; Soybean Products; Steel (3); Steel — Cold Rolled; Steel — Galvanized; Steel — Hot Rolled (2); Steel Products (2); and Wood Pallets.

Commodities Down in Price

Caustic Soda.

Commodities in Short Supply

Aluminum Products; Capacitors (2); Electrical Components; Labor — Temporary; Lumber; Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) — Gloves (8); Freight; Polyvinyl Chloride; Resistors; and Steel Products.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

October 2020 Manufacturing Index Summaries

Manufacturing PMI

Manufacturing grew in October, as the Manufacturing PMI® registered 59.3 percent, 3.9 percentage points higher than the September reading of 55.4 percent. The month-over-month gain of 3.9 percentage points is the second-biggest positive change in the Manufacturing PMI® since May 2009, when it increased by 4.2 percentage points. (There was a 9.5-percentage point increase in June 2020, as activity picked up significantly after coronavirus-induced shutdowns.) “The Manufacturing PMI signaled a continued rebuilding of economic activity in October, with all five contributing subindexes in moderate to strong growth territory. Five (Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment) of the big six industry sectors continue to expand. The New Orders and Production indexes continued at strong expansion levels. The Supplier Deliveries Index continued to reflect suppliers’ difficulties in maintaining delivery rates due to factory labor safety issues and transportation challenges. All 10 subindexes were positive for the period; a reading of ‘too low’ for Customers’ Inventories is considered a positive for future production,” Fiore said. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A Manufacturing PMI above 42.8 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the October Manufacturing PMI® indicates the overall economy grew in October for the sixth consecutive month following contraction in April. “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Manufacturing PMI® for October (59.3 percent) corresponds to a 4.8-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” says Fiore.

The Last 12 Months

New Orders

ISM’s New Orders Index registered 67.9 percent in October, an increase of 7.7 percentage points compared to the 60.2 percent reported in September. This indicates that new orders grew for the fifth consecutive month. The reading of 67.9 percent is the highest reading since January 2004 (70.6 percent). Except for June 2020, the month-over-month change of 7.7 percentage points is the greatest positive movement since March 2009 (8.6 percentage points). “All of the top six industry sectors (Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Transportation Equipment) expanded at strong levels,” Fiore said. A New Orders Index above 52.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, the 16 that reported growth in new orders in October — in the following order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Furniture & Related Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The only industry reporting a decline in new orders in October is Textile Mills.

Production

The Production Index registered 63 percent in October, 2 percentage points higher than the September reading of 61 percent, indicating growth for the fifth consecutive month and the fourth consecutive month above 60 percent. “Five (Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; and Computer & Electronic Products) of the top six industries expanded strongly,” Fiore said. An index above 51.7 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.

The 11 industries reporting growth in production during the month of October — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Computer & Electronic Products. The only industry reporting decreased production in October is Textile Mills. Six industries reported no change in production levels in October.

Employment

ISM’s Employment Index registered 53.2 percent in October, 3.6 percentage points higher than the September reading of 49.6 percent. “Following 14 consecutive months of contraction, the Employment Index moved back into expansion territory. This marks the sixth consecutive month of improvement since the index’s low of 27.5 percent registered in April. Of the six big industry sectors, five (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products) expanded. Continued strong new-order levels and an expanding backlog signify potential employment strength for the balance of the fourth quarter. For the second straight month, survey panelists’ comments indicate that significantly more companies are hiring or attempting to hire than those reducing labor forces,” Fiore said. An Employment Index above 50.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, the 11 industries to report employment growth in October — in the following order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products. The five industries reporting a decrease in employment in October are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

Supplier Deliveries†

The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower in October, as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 60.5 percent. This is 1.5 percentage points higher than the 59 percent reported in September. “Suppliers continue to struggle to deliver, with deliveries slowing at a faster rate compared to September. Transportation challenges and continuing challenges in supplier labor markets are still constraining production growth. The Supplier Deliveries Index reflects the difficulties suppliers continue to experience due to COVID-19 impacts amid expanding new orders and production. Supplier constraints are not expected to diminish soon and represent a continuing hurdle to production output and inventories growth,” Fiore said. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

Fifteen industries reported slower supplier deliveries in October, listed in the following order: Textile Mills; Fabricated Metal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. No industries reported faster supplier deliveries in October.

Inventories

The Inventories Index registered 51.9 percent in October, 4.8 percentage points higher than the 47.1 percent reported for September. Inventories grew after three straight months of contraction. “Inventory growth in light of ongoing supplier constraints indicate that the supply chain is beginning to improve its performance in meeting production demand,” says Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 44.3 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

The six industries reporting higher inventories in October — in the following order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products. The six industries reporting a decrease in inventories in October — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. Six industries reported no change in inventories in October.

Customers’ Inventories†

ISM’s Customers’ Inventories Index registered 36.7 percent in October, 1.2 percentage points lower than the 37.9 percent reported for September, indicating that customers’ inventory levels were considered too low. “Customers’ inventories are too low for the 49th consecutive month and moved further into ‘too low’ territory in October, a positive for future production growth. For a third straight month, the index has been at its lowest levels in more than a decade (a reading of 35.8 percent in June 2010),” Fiore said.

Of the 18 industries, the only one reporting higher customers’ inventories in October is Printing & Related Support Activities. The 15 industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low during October — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Paper Products; Wood Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.

Prices†

The ISM Prices Index registered 65.5 percent, an increase of 2.7 percentage points compared the September reading of 62.8 percent, indicating raw materials prices increased for the fifth consecutive month. “The Prices index achieved its highest level of expansion since October 2018, when the index registered 71.6 percent. Aluminum, copper, steel, transportation costs, corrugate, food products and plastics all recorded price increases,”  Fiore said. A Prices Index above 52.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.

The 15 industries reporting paying increased prices for raw materials in October — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; Textile Mills; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. No industries reported decreased prices in October.

Backlog of Orders†

ISM’s Backlog of Orders Index registered 55.7 percent in October, a 0.5-percentage point increase compared to the 55.2 percent reported in September, indicating order backlogs expanded for the fourth consecutive month after four straight months of contraction. “Backlogs expanded at slightly faster rates in October, indicating that new-order intakes were sufficient to fully offset production outputs and maintain an acceptable level of backlog. Four (Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products) of the six big industry sectors’ backlogs expanded. The index achieved its highest reading since November 2018 (56.4 percent),”  Fiore said.

The 10 industries reporting growth in order backlogs in October, in the following order, are: Wood Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products. In October, five industries reported lower backlogs: Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Primary Metals.

New Export Orders†

ISM’s New Export Orders Index registered 55.7 percent in October, up 1.4 percentage points compared to the September reading of 54.3 percent. “The New Export Orders Index grew for the fourth consecutive month at a faster rate and reached its highest level since September 2018 (56 percent). With four of the six big industry sectors expanding (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products), new export orders were a positive factor to the growth in new orders,” Fiore said.

The 11 industries reporting growth in new export orders in October — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Primary Metals; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products. No industries reported a decrease in new export orders in October. Six industries reported no change in new export orders in October.

Imports†

ISM’s Imports Index registered 58.1 percent in October, up 4.1 percentage points compared to the 54 percent reported for September. “Imports expanded for the fourth consecutive month and at a faster rate, reflecting continued increases in U.S. factory demand. This is the index’s highest level in more than two years (a reading of 59 percent in June 2018),” Fiore said.

The 12 industries reporting growth in imports in October — in the following order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. No industries reported decreases in imports in October. Six industries reported no change in imports in October.

†The Supplier Deliveries, Customers’ Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

Buying Policy

Average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures increased in October by five days to 140 days. Average lead time for Production Materials decreased in October by two days to 62 days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies decreased in October by one day to 34 days.

Posted November 3, 2020

Source: Institute for Supply Management