U.S. Colleges and universities are constantly re-evaluating textile programs to meet the needs of a changing industry.

By Rachael S. Dunn, Associate Editor and Jim Phillips, Executive Editor

The need for well-trained men and women to meet the demands of a growing textile industry was the cornerstone upon which the first textile programs at universities throughout the United States were founded more than a century ago.

In the intervening years, the face of the U.S. textile industry has altered dramatically, but the need for qualified, well-educated individuals to assume leadership roles has remained constant. To keep pace with the dynamic nature of the industry, colleges and universities have found it necessary to change the curricula taught to prepare individuals more adequately for careers in an industry that is global in scope, and more technical in nature.

“Years ago, Clemson University [Clemson, S.C.] taught courses such as loom fixing and the fundamentals of spinning and weaving,” said Louis P. Batson, Jr., chairman of the Louis P. Batson Co., Greenville, S.C., 1948 Clemson graduate and an emeritus member of the university’s Board of Trustees. “Today, you see a lot more of the young people graduating with degrees in polymer science, design and marketing. With the growing prevalence of niche markets and specialized products in the U.S. textile industry, the colleges and universities are offering more diverse programs in order to meet the needs of the industry and provide more opportunity for graduates.”

Charles Little, president of the Yarn Sales Division, Mount Vernon Mills, Greenville, S.C., a 1978 graduate of North Carolina State University (N.C. State), Raleigh, N.C., and president of the North Carolina Textile Foundation, agreed. “Twenty five years ago, the emphasis was specifically on textile manufacturing training. Today, there is a much greater diversity in course offerings. Chemistry, engineering, design and management degrees account for as many degrees at N.C. State as basic textile technology, if not more.”

To assist the universities in keeping pace with the needs of the industry, Little said, the North Carolina Textile Foundation donates more than $1.3 million per year to the schools to fund scholarships, support new facilities and provide tools for the recruitment of outstanding high school graduates.

Doug Ellis, chairman of Southern Mills, Union City, Ga., and a past president of the American Textile Manufacturers Institute (ATMI), earned a textile degree from the Atlanta-based Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech) in 1963. Ellis told Textile World the experience was invaluable in preparing him for a leadership role in the industry. “I was able to learn in a very short time what it would have taken me years to learn otherwise. Today, the experience can be just as valuable to those looking for a career in the industry. We have a very, very broad industry, and there is still a need for graduates with traditional textile manufacturing knowledge. But there is also a need for those with knowledge about synthetic fiber processes, polymer chemistry, nonwovens and the other various segments of the industry. Plus, graduates today need to be well-versed in a number of other areas, such as general management, accounting, engineering, marketing, statistics and other areas.

While there seems to be considerable and justifiable confidence in the quality of education provided at U.S. textile schools, a lingering question in the minds of many prospective students concerns the wisdom of entering an industry many consider to be declining. Is this an issue that should preclude young people from seeking a textile-based education and ensuing employment in the industry?

“There will always be a textile industry in the United States,” Batson said. “No doubt, it has changed over the years and will evolve even more in the years to come. It used to be that it was a labor-intensive industry. Now it is a capital-intensive industry. Management, marketing, chemistry and engineering skills are vital today. I would heartily encourage anyone considering a textile education to pursue it. There is still a lot of opportunity out there.”

History

The diversity of offerings at textile schools today can trace its roots to innovative programs founded more than a century ago. In his book, A Century of Progress The Textile Program, North Carolina State University, 1899-1999, Dr. Gary N. Mock chronicles the development of N.C. States textile program. Mock addresses, as well, the beginnings of textile education in the United States.

The initial programs the Lowell School for Practical Design, established in Boston in 1872; and the Rhode Island School of Design, founded in Providence in 1878 taught only fabric design, according to Mock.In Philadelphia, textile business owners wanted to develop a center of instruction to teach design and fabric styling so they could compete with imported fabrics. On January 10, 1895, Theodore C. Search, the then-vice president and chairman of the Instruction Committee at the Pennsylvania Museum and School of Industrial Art,
spoke to the 30th annual meeting of the National Association of Wool Manufacturers. His speech focused on the bankrupt policy of trade protection and tariffs and the way to overcome the competitive advantage of imports. At the time, more than $100 million per year of imported textiles were coming into the country despite a 40-percent tariff. I am here tonight, not to discuss the tariff, as that is a question already settled by our people, Search said, but I am here to make a plea for textile education in the manufacture of textiles. These schools, he said, abound in
France, Germany, Belgium, Switzerland and England.Southern cotton farmers and mills were
instrumental in the establishment of textile programs in the South. Daniel Augustus Tompkins, an
engineer and builder of cotton mills, proposed the creation of a private school in South Carolina.
He was later convinced that textile education could be supported by public funds. He went on to
establish the textile program at Clemson in 1898, and supported the establishment of a program at
the North Carolina College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts, known today as N.C. State.The first
textile engineering students arrived at the Atlanta-based Georgia Institute of Technology in 1899.
The Pittsburgh industrial millionaire Aaron French donated $15,000 to the university, allowing the
creation of the Aaron French School of Textiles.From these early beginnings, textile education in
the United States has developed and expanded. Today, textile institutions are not only providers of
trained professionals for the industry, but also important contributors to textile innovation and
development through their comprehensive research programs.School ProgramsThere are many
institutions across the United States teaching a variety of textile and textile-related curricula
(See table at end of story). Programs range from highly technical engineering and polymer
chemistry degrees to design and merchandising education. The following highlights some of the
programs offered.N.C. State offers a comprehensive program covering both the technical and design
aspects of textile education. Degrees in chemistry, engineering, textile technology, management and
design are available at both the undergraduate and graduate levels.The Anni Albers Scholars Program
is a new dual-degree program offered at N.C. State. The program was established in 2000 to provide
students with simultaneous education in design and in textile and apparel technology. Students in
the program earn two undergraduate degrees a bachelor of art and design, as well as a bachelor of
science in textile technology. The university hopes graduates of the program will benefit from
creative flexibility and design skills with extensive knowledge in textile technologies.

Mock, who is also a professor at N.C. States College of Textile Engineering, Chemistry and
Science, said, We are constantly looking at our programs and evaluating what we are doing, where
are we going, and what we can do to support the needs of the industry. Mock mentioned protective
garments and medical textiles as big areas of current research at N.C. State. He also thinks
educating students in design,sourcing and testing, and quality control is important in supporting
the apparel industry in the future.Georgia Tech offers undergraduate degrees in textile and fiber
engineering, polymer and textile chemistry, and textile enterprise management. Masters degrees and
doctorate programs are also available. Dr. Fred Cook, chair and professor of the School of
TextileandFiber Engineering, said, Companies value a textile education in that it gives the
graduate entering the industry the necessary nomenclature and scientific/engineering process
information to be of immediate use to the hiring company without lost training time.Cook continued,
The general industry estimate is that it takes two years to bring a generic major up to the same
use level as an entering textile-related major, at a support cost to the hiring company of
approximately $200,000 per year.From the summer of 2000 through the spring semester of 2001,
Georgia Tech awarded 31 textile-related degrees at the bachelor, master and Ph.D. levels. The
average starting salary for all undergraduate students in 2001 was approximately $45,000. Employers
included such companies as KoSa, Honeywell, Shaw Industries, and Southern Mills. Masters and Ph.D.
graduates were employed by 3M Corp., DuPont and Ciba Vision Products, among others.Cook added that
by completing a four-year textile degree, the graduate has demonstrated a dedication to the
industry that a generic major has not, and thus is more likely to remain with the industry for the
long term.Georgia Tech shares some resources lab courses, professors and recruitment efforts with
Southern Polytechnic State University (SPSU), Marietta, Ga. Dr. Walter Thomas, head of the
Apparel/Textile Department, said that SPSUs apparel/textile engineering technology degree provides
more hands-on, applied training than programs at other universities. Thomas said there is a
tremendous demand for SPSU textile graduates, despite the difficulties the industry is facing. He
also said starting salaries for new graduates are between $5,000 and $6,000 higher than they were
last year.N.C. State, Georgia Tech and Auburn University, Auburn, Ala., offer the only engineering
programs in the United States accredited by the Accreditation Boards for Engineering and Technology
(ABET).Dr. Peter Schwartz, professor and dean of Auburns Department of Textile Engineering, said,
The health of textile education is an important issue in Alabama. In order to assure the continued
viability of textile engineering at Auburn, we are in the process of establishing a Futures
Advisory Group, consisting of faculty, students and industry representatives, to advise the
department on how to best position itself to meet the challenges we will face in the next decade
and beyond. Philadelphia University, Philadelphia, offers a range of undergraduate and graduate
degrees in engineering, design and management-related programs at its School of Textiles and
Materials Technology. The college recently added an on-line masters of business administration
(MBA) in textile and apparel marketing to its offerings. The course can be completed in 13 months,
or students may choose to take courses at a slower pace. Armed with a computer and Internet access,
busy working professionals with time and location issues can complete course work on-line when its
convenient with work schedules.Philadelphia Universitys Center of Excellence in Digital Ink-Jet
Printing, directed by Professor Hitoshi Ujiie and coordinated by Professor William Wolfgang, allows
students and professors to explore and research textile design initiatives based on digital
printing technologies. The center has Mutoh, Colorspan, Hewlett-Packard and EnCad equipment.
Funding comes from annual subscriptions by machinery manufacturers, ink developers, and textile
manufacturers.The New York City-based Fashion Institute of Technology (FIT) offers textile-related
business degrees through its School of Business and Technology, as well as design degrees through
the School of Art and Design. FIT prepares students for various fashion careers, including fashion
design, fabric styling, textile design, fashion merchandising management and textile development
and marketing. Prominent alumni include Calvin Klein and Michael Kors.FIT houses the Peter G.
Scotese Computer-Aided Design and Communications Center. This facility offers students access to
state-of-the-art computer equipment for textile design. The Gladys Marcus library includes a
special collection of textile design archives, and the museum at FIT has the worlds largest
collection of textiles dating from the 18th century, according to the school.The Institute of
Textile Technology (ITT), Charlottesville, Va., was founded in 1944 by textile industry leaders who
saw a need for individual companies to join forces in collective support of a private educational
and research institution. ITT teaches graduate students, conducts research and offers a
comprehensive textile information service. The institute is also home to one of the largest
collections of English-language textile information in the world the Roger Milliken Textile
Library.To further provide value to industry, ITT recently established the Center for Textile
Economic Competitiveness. The center combines innovative research with Collaborative Consultancy.
According to ITT, Collaborative Consultancy involves proficiently transferring solutions from
research into practical industry applications that lead to tangible results. ITT believes this
merging of research and consultancy is the key to creating added value from new knowledge.Many of
the universities including N.C. State, Clemson, ITT, North Carolina Center for Applied Textile
Technology (NCCATT), and Auburn also have continuing education or professional training courses.The
Madren Conference Center on the campus of Clemson University hosts a wide range of seminars every
year to further train or enhance the knowledge of people in the industry. Medical textiles, carpet
manufacturing and textile printing are just some of the topics that are covered.Dr. Richard V.
Gregory, director, School of Materials, Science and Engineering, said, The focus of the textiles,
fiber and polymer science program at Clemson University will be on industrial, technical and
medical textiles; that is, on advanced materials made from fibrous structures.NCCATT Belmont, N.C.,
has resources to cater specific courses or seminars depending on individual or company needs.
According to Gwen Perkins, dean of development and special programs, NCCATT has well-equipped
textile labs, high-tech computer labs and facilities to host conferences.Research ConsortiumsThe
National Textile Center (NTC) is a research consortium of six universities: Auburn University;
Clemson University; Georgia Tech; N.C. State; the University of Massachusetts, Dartmouth; and
Philadelphia University. These six institutions share human resources, equipment and facilities to
serve the U.S. fiber/textile/fabricated products/retail complex. NTCs goals include: research
discovering, designing and developing new materials, innovative and improved manufacturing, and
integrated systems essential to the success of a modern U.S. textile enterprise;education training
personnel, establishing industrial partnerships, and creating transfer mechanisms to ensure the
utilization of technologies developed; andpartnership strengthening the nations textile research
and educational efforts by uniting diverse experts and resources in unique collaborative
projects.Georgia Tech has established a Polymer Education and Research Center (PERC) with the
mission of providing the highest-quality multidisciplinary education and research opportunities in
polymer science and engineering. PERC is a joint program involving six schools on the Georgia Tech
campus: Chemical Engineering, Textile and Fiber Engineering, Material Science and Engineering,
Chemistry and Biochemistry, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Mechanical Engineering, as well as
the Georgia Tech Research Institute (GtrI). PERC is committed to assisting and providing leadership
for polymer and related industries.Industry CooperationThe Textiles and Nonwovens Development
Center (TANDEC), Knoxville, Tenn., is a cooperative partnership between the ExxonMobil Chemical
Co., Irving, Texas, and the University of Tennessee (UT), Knoxville. TANDECs primary goal is to
provide quality research, educational opportunities and service in the field of nonwovens and
textiles.The partnership began in 1983, when Exxon decided to move a meltblown pilot line from its
Baytown Polymers Center to UT. Exxon wanted the line to be available to the academic community, as
well as to the nonwovens industry. Expansion of efforts continued, and equipment was added and
upgraded, allowing TANDEC to become one of the leaders at UT in the development of new patents.A
National Science Foundation (NSF) grant for a maximum of eight years with matching funds from the
State of North Carolina and the nonwovens industry, enabled N.C. State to establish the Nonwovens
Cooperative Research Center (NCRC) in 1991. NCRC serves the nonwovens industry through fundamental
and applied research. The center has developed core and non-core research, and participates in
technology-transfer activities. Support is still provided by the State of North Carolina, from
industrial members and affiliates of the center, and by companies with research or developmental
needs. Member companies include 3M Corp., Cotton Incorporated, Dow Plastics, DuPont, Fleissner,
KoSa and ProcterandGamble, among others.Importance Of Education To The Textile IndustryThere is no
doubt that the numerous textile schools and colleges have contributed significantly to the growth
and development of the textile industry over the years. In an era in which quality is no longer an
option but a steadfast requirement for remaining viable, the consummate knowledge of textile
processes brought to bear by the graduates of textile schools has been invaluable.Also, it is
well-known that the key to success for the U.S. industry over the next few decades will rest on the
ability of its people to innovate and deliver new products that meet the changing needs of the
marketplace. Remember, said Batson, that the United States is still the fashion capital of the
world. The textile industry must continue to develop the capability to meet the high-end demands of
the consumer.Peggy Earle, owner of the childrenswear company Hartstrings Inc., and a 1974 graduate
of Cornell University, said, There are many, many jobs in the apparel industry where an individual
would benefit from having a good, solid background in textiles. To that end, the industry will
continue to rely on the innovative thinking and new ideas that emerge from the nations colleges and
universities.SchoolsAuburn UniversityClemson UniversityColorado State UniversityCornell
UniversityFashion Institute of Tech.Florida State UniversityGeorgia Institute of Tech.Institute of
Textile Tech.Iowa State UniversityKansas State UniversityLouisiana State UniversityNorth Carolina
State U.N.C. Center for App. Textile.Ohio State UniversityPhiladelphia UniversitySouthern Poly.
State U.Syracuse UniversitytrI-Princeton UniversityTexas Tech UniversityTexas Women’s
UniversityUniversity of AlabamaUniversity of GeorgiaUniversity of Mass.University of
MissouriUniversity of North TexasUniversity of Rhode IslandUniversity of TennesseeUniversity of
WisconsinVirginia Polytechnic InstitutePhone(334)844-4123(864) 656-3176(970) 491-5360(607)
255-3151(212) 217-7999(850) 644-2498(404) 894-2490(804) 296-5511(515) 294-7474(785) 532-6993(225)
578-2281(919) 515-3761(704) 825-3737(614) 292-8063(215) 951-2750(770) 528-7272(315) 443-2455(609)
924-3150(806) 747-3790(940) 898-2661(205) 348-6176(706) 542-4888(508) 999-8453(573) 882-7317(940)
565-2436(401) 454-6136(865) 974-2141(715) 232-2483(540) 231-6164Fax(334) 844-4068(864)
656-5973(970) 491-7975(607) 255-1093(212) 594-9413(850) 645-4673(404) 894-8780(804) 296-2957(515)
294-6364(785) 532-3796(225) 578-2697(919) 515-6621(704) 825-7303(614) 688-5565(215) 951-2651(770)
528-7454(315) 433-9688(609) 683-7836(806) 747-3796(940) 898-2711(205) 348-3789(706) 542-4890(508)
999-9139(573) 882-3289(940) 565-4348(401) 454-6320(865) 974-5236(715) 232-5042(540) 231-1697
January 2002

When the second session of the 107th Congress convenes January 28 it will have considerable
unfinished business that will impact the textile industry. While an economic recovery program,
taxes and dealing with terrorism and home security will be grabbing the headlines, international
trade, tax and farm legislation will be of equal importance to textile manufacturers, organized
labor and importers.Just before Congress left for its year-end recess, the Bush administration put
forth a nine-point program designed to address some of the U.S. textile industrys economic
problems. Several of these issues will require congressional action.One of the first issues likely
to come to the forefront is a commitment from the Republican leadership in the House to enact
legislation that would require textile and apparel products qualifying for benefits under the
Caribbean Trade Partnership Act to be dyed and finished in the U.S. The House leadership promised
to deal with this issue at the earliest opportunity, so it could be attached to the first
international trade bill to be considered.Legislation that would for the first time incorporate
textiles and apparel in an Andean Nation preferential trade program passed the House, much to the
consternation of the U.S. textile industry, and is awaiting action in the Senate. Since the current
law, which does not include textiles and apparel expired in December, quick action is expected. The
American Textile Manufacturers Institute strongly opposes extending the trade preferences to
textiles and apparel, but the proposal is supported by the American ApparelandFootwear
Association.Legislation granting broad trade promotion authority to the President passed the House
by a single vote in last December, and it is pending in the Senate Finance Committee. If the Senate
makes any changes in the bill, it will have to return to the House, where there could be another
major showdown involving textile state congressmen. The bill passed the House with key support from
textile state legislators who voted for it in return for promises from the administration that it
would take steps to address textile trade problems. If those members do not feel the administration
is following through, they could scuttle the trade promotion bill.In connection with the economic
stimulus package passed by the House and pending in the Senate, the textile industry is seeking at
least a five-year tax loss carryback, repeal or reform of the alternative minimum tax and faster
depreciation for machinery.And, finally the U.S. textile industry will be lobbying hard to
safeguard the cotton competitiveness program which is part of the Farm Bill pending in the Senate.
The industry wants to eliminate the 1.25 cents per pound differential between world and domestic
prices in order for the program to be activated. ATMI estimates that repeal of the 1.25 cent per
pound requirement would save American textile companies some $50 million annually.

Burlington Files Chapter 11,Hastens New Business ModelIn an effort to implement a new business
model and better serve its customers, Greensboro, N.C.-based Burlington Industries Inc. and certain
of its subsidiaries have filed voluntary petitions for reorganization under Chapter 11 of the U.S.
Bankruptcy Code. The companys new business model focuses on enabling it to introduce fabric
innovations and distinctive products to the market. Burlington is now concentrating on its Lees
Carpets business and on the performance and fabric innovations provided through the proprietary
technology developed by its subsidiary Nano-Tex LLC. As well, it will continue to improve its North
American manufacturing operations and will expand global opportunities through its subsidiary
Burlington WorldWide Ltd., Hong Kong.The petitions filed for reorganization did not include
international operations, joint-venture partnerships, Nano-Tex LLC and Burlington WorldWide Ltd.Our
business model going forward adds worldwide reach to our North American capability to provide
products, services and global solutions to our customers, said George W. Henderson III, chairman
and CEO. We are creating a more flexible and responsive company capable of meeting the diversified
and ever changing needs of our customers.The company received final court approval for $190 million
in debtor-in-possession (DIP) financing underwritten by J.P. Morgan ChaseandCo. The financing is
available to help cover operating expenses during the reorganization process.
January 2002

Textiles 2002
The worst is over, but recovery will be slow. Todays hard-pressed textile industry
coming off a miserable 2001 can probably look forward to some bottoming out, and even selective
fractional gains over the next few quarters. But by no stretch of the imagination does it look to
be anything even remotely resembling a good year.Blame it on the still-considerable number of mill
problems. Aside from the endemic headache, mills continue to face the multiple challenges of a
far-from-robust economy, excess capacity, a rapidly changing marketplace, fickle consumers and
relatively shaky financial positions.However, the situation is far from hopeless. Indeed, most
analysts see a viable domestic industry in the years immediately ahead one that may not be as large
as it once was, but one that will become relatively healthy, a lot more innovative, and
increasingly able to compete in what is now clearly a global market.To be sure, precise predictions
in these uncertain times are quite difficult to make. But at this stage of the game, heres a sketch
of what
Textile World envisions for the upcoming year:Demand: Mill output for the year as a whole
will lag behind 2001, reflecting the steady declines of the past 12 months. But on a 2002
quarter-to-quarter basis, totals should remain relatively flat. A similar pattern is anticipated
for dollar shipments, with combined 2002 totals of both mill and mill products estimated at just
under $80 billion some $10 billion under the peak hit in 1997.Inventories: Expect some improvement
in the textile mill stock/sales ratio, as holdings are slowly brought down to match lower demand
levels. But little or no further declines are seen for the mill product ratios the needed inventory
correction occurred over the past year.Prices: The combination of lackluster demand, strong
competition, and more-than-ample capacity would seem to rule out any significant price advances.
There could be some small, selective increases, but not nearly enough to make for any meaningful
advances in any major mill or mill product price categories.Costs: This is the one saving grace a
potent offset to still-sluggish prices. Specifically, there will be only modest increases in labor
rates, and they will be offset by continuing productivity gains. Fiber costs will show little or no
meaningful upward movement from current low levels.Foreign Trade: Import gains will be quite
modest, primarily because of the current domestic business slowdown. But because the economic
slowdown is now worldwide, it would be unrealistic to expect any export gains either. Look for
another huge textile and apparel deficit one that could top $65 billion for the first time in
history.Employment: Industry shrinkage is best illustrated by the continuing decline in textile and
apparel employees. Add lessened demand to rising productivity, and the textile workforce should
drop another 5 percent to 453,000 over the new year. The apparel total could be off by 7 percent,
to around 529,000 workers.Financial: Profit margins will begin to inch up, but only from very low
2001 levels. Moreover, theyll remain well under the U.S. industry average. This, in turn, will
limit any stock market recovery from recent lows though some slight uptick in textile securities is
likely as the general economy begins to improve.Capital Spending: Purchases of new, more flexible
equipment will continue and help bolster the overall upward productivity trend. Nevertheless, the
total of such outlays should dip again in 2002 as industry activity continues to disappoint and
current capacity utilization remains in the disturbing low-70s range.New Products/New Processes:
The still-growing number of new offerings is one of the industrys long-term plusses. Details seem
to assure makers of apparel and other textile-containing products of a spate of new products. These
innovations also enhance the trend toward more product differentiation something that can give U.S.
producers a leg up on overseas competitors.Another sign that the industry isnt about to disappear
is the continuing wave of mill acquisitions, consolidations, mergers, reorganizations and global
partnerships all designed to assure a viable industry over the longer pull.Finally, its hard to
ignore all the trade legislation of the past few years. While this clearly presents lots of
challenges, it also provides plenty of opportunities for U.S. textile firms to increasingly become
suppliers of choice for North American and Caribbean manufacturers.Bottom line: dont write off the
textile industry. True, mill activity has nosedived nearly 20 percent over the past few years, and
this, in turn, has dropped the mill labor force to less than half the million-plus level prevailing
as recently as 1992.A recent longer-term forecast by the prestigious DRI-WEFA economic consulting
firm calls for a basically flat mill activity pattern over the next four years, with output
declining only fractionally over this period. In the latter half of the decade, these economic
pundits see a move back into the plus column, though any gains are likely to be quite
minimal.Recent long-term government textile employment predictions tell much the same story.
Workforce totals will continue to fall. But when increased productivity per worker is factored in,
the figures suggest level-to-slightly-higher mill production levels.

 A Closer Look At 2002 MarketsAs noted earlier, overall mill production and shipment
totals over the new year arent likely to be rising much from recent levels. One big braking force
here will be the still-very-high mill inventory levels.The key textile mill/stock sales ratio now
near a 1.70 months supply is significantly above the 1.40 low in 1994. This very high ratio is
almost sure to have a negative effect on textile activity as a fair amount of early 2002 demand is
met by drawing down existing stocks rather than by new output. A relatively low mill operating rate
also doesnt bode too well for the industry. Right now, mills are operating at only 73 percent of
their potential a far cry from the 91-percent peak hit in 1994. Moreover, theres little to suggest
this key barometer will be turning up anytime soon.But not all areas of the industry will be
equally impacted by these problems. Denim markets, for one, look to remain tolerably firm, thanks
to a variety of new weaves and washes plus a still-growing interest in fashion constructions. Some
fleeces, velours and nylon types are also moving well. And corduroys, too, remain fairly
strong.Zeroing in on menswear, a fashion shift toward luxury and elegance should help both
wool/cashmeres and all wools. Biggest interest may be in light wools for pants. In coats,
wool/cashmere blends will dominate.The outlook for nonwovens is also fairly bright. And that goes
for the two segments of this fastest-growing textile area: the high-volume roll goods going into
diaper and feminine hygiene markets; and specialty markets for industrial applications.As well,
nonwovens are tending to make for new classes of products instead of replacing older markets. New
markets include allergen-barrier products, negatively charged dusting materials and vacuum filters,
and incontinence products for an aging population. But at the other end of the spectrum are several
weak spots. Khaki, for example, continues sluggish as fashion interest wanes.Carpets, too, leave a
lot to be desired as a slowing housing market could make for a second year of decline.
Floor-covering shipments are expected to be off another 1 to 2 percent in 2002, on top of last
years close to 7-percent slide.Home furnishings markets dont look especially buoyant either. The
past reflects sagging consumer optimism. But other factors here, such as growing imports and a
sluggish housing market, will also tend to put a damper on near-term sales.

 No Labor Cost PressuresOn a more upbeat note for all mills, however, is the likelihood
of little or no upward cost tug on the pay front. This past year, labor rates rose by only about
1.5 percent, with only fractionally higher figures projected for 2002 and 2003. Moreover, factoring
in productivity gains, textile unit labor costs have actually been declining.This productivity
factor cant be underestimated as the industry strives to remain at the cutting edge of technology
and become globally competitive in world markets. To ensure this, the industry has invested more
than $2 billion annually in new plants and state-of-the-art equipment from 1987 onward. The figure
reached a peak of almost $3 billion in 1994.In 1999, the most recent year available, industry
capital expenditures were again near the record of just under $3 billion. Upshot: the American
textile industry consistently ranks as one of the most efficient and productive in the world.To
emphasize this last point, the American Textile Manufacturers Institute (ATMI) notes that in 1987,
the average loom produced 12.9 square meters of fabric per hour. Ten years later, the average was
34 square yards a jump of almost 165 percent.Bureau of Labor Statistics output-per-hour figures
tell the same story. They show that this past decades productivity gains for broadwoven fabrics,
yarn and thread, and knitting mills all managed to outpace those made by autos, machinery, paper,
steel and a host of other industries.Indeed, man-made broadwoven fabric and yarn and thread mills
both improved output by more than 50 percent enough to rank these two textile areas 11th and 13th
among 199 industrial categories.Still another measure of productivity progress: A decade ago, the
industry shipped $39.40 worth of product every employee hour. Recent figures show a jump to $54.20
after an inflation adjustment an efficiency gain of 38 percent. The advance was also 30 percent
larger than the average for all manufacturing. These gains have dissipated in recent quarters,
reflecting normal efficiency deadlines during a production downturn. Nevertheless, the fact that
there was no meaningful drop in mill productivity last year has to be regarded as a positive
suggesting a shift back into the gains mode again, if not over this year, then certainly by 2003.

 No Fiber Cost Pressures EitherFiber outlays also remain under control. Cotton quotes
have been running close to 30 cents per pound under year-ago levels, marking a 30-year low for this
key natural fiber. More importantly, theres little to suggest that this weak price pattern is about
to end. Both U.S. and global production look to remain quite high at a time when demand has been
doing little more than marking time.On the U.S. production front, some 20 million bales are seen
for the current marketing year. Factor in sluggish demand, and this suggests domestic cotton stocks
will rise 44 percent this year, to 7.7 million bales.Adding to downward price pressure is the
currently strong U.S. dollar. It makes dollar-denominated cotton a lot less attractive to foreign
buyers.The improving quality of cotton has to be regarded as yet another long-term plus for mills
one that should help the industry over the longer pull. In any case, new varieties are being
developed that are higher-yielding, higher-quality, hardier and more pest-resistant.Current
man-made fiber trends also offer some cost encouragement to mills. Quotes have been quite stable
over the past few months, with the governments official man-made producer price index actually
running fractionally under a year ago. And the pattern is pretty much the same where individual
constructions are concerned. At latest report, small year-to-year declines were noted for nylon,
polyester and polyolefins. Looking ahead, many man-mades could continue on the soft side. Aside
from overseas competition and excess capacity, theres the added downward pressure from sagging
crude oil the basic feedstock of most man-mades.How much of a drop A lot depends on when business
picks up and how much oil producers curtail production. But right now, a further 0.5- to 1-percent
slippage in this area is quite possible. Wool, too, isnt likely to cause any headaches. Theres an
ample supply around, with prices of some key grades running only slightly above a year ago. And
cashmere tags are down sharply enough to drop cashmere fabrics by as much as 12 to 15 percent under
last summers levels. Some Further Thoughts on PricesGiven the current supply-demand-cost
situation, its hard to anticipate any meaningful near-term price rebound. Best bet for 2002 is
perhaps a repeat of last years relatively flat pattern at least as far as overall mill product
averages are concerned.
TWs actual price projections for key subsectors of the textile industry are detailed in
Table 3. In virtually all cases, there are no significant advances. Even relatively strong areas
such as denim should continue to have trouble posting higher prices.Beyond 2002, however, some
modest textile price increases are possible as the economy begins to pick up steam, the positive
effects of recent North American trade legislation take hold, and current industry-strengthening
strategies bear fruit. On the latter score, these would have to include additional domestic mill
capacity declines reflecting somewhat reduced capital spending and the impact of plant shutdowns.
All told, industry potential has shrunk 3.5 percent over the past year on top of the previous years
1.5-percent decline. And this trend, which could help bolster prices, looks to continue.In any
event, the longer-run price prognosis is not all that bad. Recent DRI-WEFA projections see average
textile mill product quotes edging up as much as 1 percent annually as we move further into the new
decade.

 The Big Imponderable: International TradeBig question marks persist on the foreign
trade front. To be sure, imports may not grow at the pace of recent years, but they should continue
to mean the difference between a healthy and a not-so-healthy industry.If theres any doubt on the
import impact, take a look at the more than doubling of incoming shipments over the past decade.
This increase has far outweighed export gains and made for todays huge textile and apparel trade
deficit. Analysts put most of the blame on the recent Asian currency devaluations. These made for a
huge wave of low-priced textile and apparel imports.ATMI officials note textile imports from Asia
which had shown relatively little growth over a recent 10 years, jumped over 80 percent over the
next four years when Asian currencies dropped in value by an average of 40 percent.Burlington
Industries Chairman, George W. Henderson, concurs, saying that since 1995, the volume of imported
apparel has grown at five times the rate of consumption and that four out of five garments sold in
the United States today are imported.To counter all these developments, ATMI is asking for a longer
carryback period for textile companies with net operating losses; no acceleration of the Uruguay
Round quota phase-out schedule, as sought by many foreign exporters; opening up foreign markets to
U.S. textile exports; stricter enforcement of current trade laws; and strengthening of U.S. efforts
to fight textile transshipments.ATMI also wants to work with supporters in Congress to ensure that
any economic assistance to Pakistan minimizes the impact on U.S. textile and apparel industries;
and enact legislation to clarify that dyeing and finishing of U.S. fabric must be done in the
United States under the Caribbean Basin (CBI) law.Meantime, there continues to be some progress in
the export sphere. Dollar volume totals of outgoing textile and apparel shipments though admittedly
from a very small base have doubled over the past decade.Another positive sign: the shift in
imports away from the Far East and toward North America. Mexico, for example, now sends in three
times the apparel as Asia. The key point: these south-of-the-border imports are mostly made of U.S.
fabrics. Recently passed CBI legislation also has positive implications for domestic mills. Many
now see the Caribbean as at least a partial solution to their current problem. The primary
advantage of CBI sourcing, they add, is speed. In any case, CBI apparel growth should average 10
percent annually over the next few years. After that, an 8-percent growth rate seems likely. But
some of these gains could be at the expense of Mexico.This by no means implies that CBI trade wont
present problems. Some textile executives cite the complicated logistics involved in moving fabric
and apparel from country to country. The paperwork can be overwhelming.Another question mark: what
happens to CBI when trade quotas are eliminated in 2005 Some feel commodity apparel could well go
to Southeast Asia, with the CBI zeroing in on moderate and upper-moderate apparel lines. This, in
turn, suggests the need for domestic mills to develop and sell more novelty fabrics to Caribbean
Basin apparel makers. More New and Improved OfferingsThis emphasis on innovative niche
products, or improved versions of existing ones, could well be the key to survival. Not
surprisingly, virtually every large company has plans for creative introductions to entice
consumers and protect competitive positions.As one mill spokesperson puts it, more people than ever
are going to be interested in newness. Retailers will be more receptive to accept new fabrics, and
manufacturers should have better opportunities to place new products. On a similar note, another
executive said, theres a lot of opportunities if you develop the right fabrics. We always have an
eye open for high-profit niche fabrics that will be difficult for importers to imitate.One example
of the new emphasis is todays growing interest in nanotechnology the changing of the molecular
structure of fibers in a fabric to give it different properties. Some of the developments here
include providing fabrics with wicking, moisture control, and wrinkle-resistant qualities,
providing the soft hand of cotton, but the performance of polyester.In another area, Schaumburg,
Ill.-based Motorola is working on fabrics that can talk to washing machines giving instructions on
how the garment should be washed. Another firm is working on fabrics that allow the expanding of
pants waistlines with the push of a button.At Nano-Tex, Greensboro, N.C., researchers play
basketball everyday in the same socks, engineered with molecular-scaled sponges that absorb the
rancid hydrocarbons responsible for body odor. Another firm hopes to introduce a T-shirt that will
monitor heart-rate, track body temperature and respiration, and even count how many calories a
wearer is burning.Even old standbys such as denim are getting a lot of new product attention. Mills
are developing special denims with unique finishes. They want to avoid basic constructions they
feel can only be sold on the basis of price. There are also a lot more blend denims, especially
with spandex, polyester and polypropylene. Some of these add strength in the fill and wash out more
evenly. Again, its all about specialized markets with one Burlington denim executive observing:
Theres not a million yards of one fabric but a million yards made of 10 fabrics. 

The Prognosis Is GoodThe textile and apparel industries are in a state of flux. Changes in
the works will make them almost unrecognizable in a few years. Clearly, these industries will be
smaller, more oriented toward specialty offerings, a lot more efficient, and tuned into the
electronic age. More importantly, all major players will be globally oriented. To assure all this,
advance planning, research and development will be musts. Emphasis will be on items that offer
competitive advantages to end-users.But the prognosis is good. Virtually all analysts now agree
that there will be a viable textile industry five to 10 years down the pike. But the emphasis wont
be on commodity goods, but instead, mainly on high-end goods with a limited but steady market, and
niche products where mills can maintain a competitive advantage.Thats not to say pitfalls wont
continue to exist. One things for sure: once the quota system now in place ends at the beginning of
2005, the industry will be entering unchartered waters.To end on an upbeat note: the textile
industry will survive over the long haul. Indeed, given todays underlying trends and changes, there
should be a lot more plusses to talk about next year when
TW takes its next annual look at the industrys future.
January 2002