By James M. Borneman, Editor In Chief
As 2025 draws to a close and the turmoil of the past year lessens with signs of a new footing taking hold, many view the 2025 blitz on the long-held framework of U.S. International trade policy as a dream come true.
A new fair-trade focus establishing America’s self-interests as a cornerstone of policy broke with the long-held commitment to an open, “free” trade policy, fraught with barriers to U.S. manufacturing competitiveness.
In a split second, an extremely contentious divide opened in the status quo of not only trade policy, but global relationships, alliances and longstanding assumptions concerning the goals of U.S. trade policy.
Even at the time of this writing, with the U.S. Supreme Court yet to rule on President Trump’s authority to enact such a tariff regime, the president’s proponents espouse other avenues the president will, could, or should pursue if the court rules against him.
Investment has been stymied by the tariff effect on imported machinery, a weak U.S. dollar and the benefit of new full depreciation tax policy not really hitting home.
Throw in a government shutdown — which affects numerous government business relationships, health insurance uncertainty and lack of consensuses on the future of the very existence of humanity — and it is a murky stew.
Will cooler heads prevail in 2026?
One would think so, but there are many challenges ahead.
If President Trump’s history as a negotiator is considered, it is a by-his-book approach to stake an extreme position, well beyond the goals of the negotiation, and then settle back to a more moderate position. It has happened over and repeatedly, but few take notice and settle quickly. It is painful to watch and well outside the nature of statesman-like behavior but, in many cases, can be extremely effective.
In 2016, similar concerns for the future took hold after his election — before he was even sworn into office. Back then, the economy really sprang to life as business and consumers felt reassured that the world wasn’t going to end. Political battles raged in President Trump’s first term within his own party and in opposition. The internal hostility seems to have moderated this time, with steep political and social hostility very much in place.
U.S. textiles has always survived, and even thrived, by doing a good job of
“reading the room.” The National Council of Textile Organization (NCTO) has had an effective run at getting the voice of the industry heard in Washington. Though not spoken of everyday, the end of the de minimis loophole for low-value commercial shipments is a major achievement and step forward towards fairer trade.
What will happen with the USMCA agreement that links the United States, Canada and Mexico into a trading block; or the CAFTA partners — some of which are not admired by the president; or even the Berry Amendment? Who knows?
That said, may 2026 be a healthy and prosperous new year!
2025 Quarterly Issue IV
