TEMPE, Ariz. — January 4, 2022 — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in December, with the overall economy achieving a 19th consecutive month of growth, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The December Manufacturing PMI registered 58.7 percent, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points from the November reading of 61.1 percent. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 19th month in a row after a contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index registered 60.4 percent, down 1.1 percentage points compared to the November reading of 61.5 percent. The Production Index registered 59.2 percent, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points compared to the November reading of 61.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 68.2 percent, down 14.2 percentage points compared to the November figure of 82.4 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 62.8 percent, 0.9 percentage point higher than the November reading of 61.9 percent. The Employment Index registered 54.2 percent, 0.9 percentage point higher compared to the November reading of 53.3 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 64.9 percent, down 7.3 percentage points from the November figure of 72.2 percent. The Inventories Index registered 54.7 percent, 2.1 percentage points lower than the November reading of 56.8 percent. The New Export Orders Index registered 53.6 percent, a decrease of 0.4 percentage point compared to the November reading of 54 percent. The Imports Index registered 53.8 percent, a 1.2-percentage point increase from the November reading of 52.6 percent.”

Fiore continued: “The U.S. manufacturing sector remains in a demand-driven, supply chain-constrained environment, with indications of improvements in labor resources and supplier delivery performance. Shortages of critical lowest-tier materials, high commodity prices and difficulties in transporting products continue to plague reliable consumption. Coronavirus pandemic-related global issues — worker absenteeism, short-term shutdowns due to parts shortages, employee turnover and overseas supply chain problems — continue to impact manufacturing. However, panel sentiment remains strongly optimistic, with six positive growth comments for every cautious comment, down slightly from November. The forecast released this month indicates a strong 2022 performance expectation in terms of revenue growth and profitability. Demand expanded, with the (1) New Orders Index growing, supported by continued expansion of new export orders, (2) Customers’ Inventories Index remaining at a very low level and (3) Backlog of Orders Index staying at a very high level. Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) grew during the period, with a combined negative 1.4-percentage point change to the Manufacturing PMI® calculation. The Employment Index expanded for a fourth straight month, with some indications that ability to hire is improving, though somewhat offset by the continued challenges of turnover and backfilling. Inputs — expressed as supplier deliveries, inventories, and imports — continued to constrain production expansion, but there are clear signs of improved delivery performance. The Supplier Deliveries Index again slowed while the Inventories Index expanded, both at a slower rate. In December, the Prices Index increased for the 19th consecutive month, at a slower rate (a decrease of 14.2 percentage points), indicating that supplier pricing power continues to rise, but to a lesser degree.

“All of the six biggest manufacturing industries — Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; and Petroleum & Coal Products, in that order — registered moderate-to-strong growth in December.

“Manufacturing performed well for the 19th straight month, with demand and consumption registering month-over-month growth. Meeting demand will remain a challenge, due to hiring difficulties and a clear cycle of labor turnover at all tiers. For the second month in a row, Business Survey Committee panelists’ comments suggest month-over-month improvement on hiring, offset by backfilling required to address employee turnover. Supplier delivery rate improvement was indicated by the Supplier Deliveries Index softening in December. Transportation networks, a harbinger of future supplier delivery performance, are still performing erratically; however, there are signs of improvement,” says Fiore.

The 15 manufacturing industries reporting growth in December — in the following order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Primary Metals; and Petroleum & Coal Products. The three industries reporting a decrease in December compared to November are: Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; and Paper Products.

What Respondents Are Saying

“Chemical supply chains are filling very slowly. Still not full, but (my) gut feeling says it’s getting easier to source chemical raw materials.” [Chemical Products]

“Continued strong demand has our production facilities producing as many vehicles as we have materials for; however, capacity is limited due to the global chip shortage.” [Transportation Equipment]

“Lowered oil prices due to (the) omicron variant has caused concern around production and capital spend in 2022.” [Petroleum & Coal Products]

“Labor is still tight, and turnover continues. Supply chain issues are is still causing customer order cuts. Trucks are scarce, and the teams are burned out from working long hours and dealing with supply constraints daily.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]

“Price increases appear to be slowing. Lead times are shrinking slowly, and inventories are growing. I hope we have reached the top of the hill to start down a gentle slope that lets us get back to something that resembles normal.” [Fabricated Metal Products]

“Business continues to be good, with strong incoming orders from customers. Continue to battle labor, material and transportation pressures.” [Furniture & Related Products]

“Construction projects for 2022 and 2023 look very strong for us.” [Nonmetallic Mineral Products]

“Costs for steel seem to be coming down some. We have seen a little relief on steel prices, but they are still very high. Overall performance by suppliers has improved. On-time deliveries have improved.” [Machinery]

“Supply chain interruptions have dramatically increased in the fourth quarter. Many of our suppliers are unable to deliver product until January or February 2022 or later.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]

“Very robust order activity. Backlog increased. Plastic raw material shortages impact orders.” [Plastics & Rubber Products]

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.

Commodities Reported Up/Down In Price and In Short Supply 

Commodities Up in Price
Adhesives and Paint; Aluminum* (19); Capacitors; Corrugate (15); Corrugated Packaging (14); Diesel Fuel (12); Electrical Components (13); Electronic Components (13); Freight (14); Labor — Services; Labor — Temporary (8); Logistics Services; Lubricants; Lumber; Natural Gas* (6); Nylon (3); Ocean Freight (13); Packaging Supplies (13); Printed Circuit Boards (PCBs); Resin Based Products (11); Resistors; Rubber Based Products (5); Semiconductors (11); Silicone (2); Steel* (17); Steel — Galvanized; Steel — Stainless (14); and Steel Products* (16).

Commodities Down in Price
Aluminum* (2); Crude Oil; Ethylene; Natural Gas*; Polyethylene; Propylene; Steel* (2); and Steel — Hot Rolled (2).

Commodities in Short Supply
Aluminum (2); Copper Products; Electrical Cables; Electrical Components (15); Electronic Components (13); Labor — Temporary (8); Plastic Resins — Other (10); Rubber Based Products; Semiconductors (13); and Steel (13).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity has been listed is indicated after each item.

*Indicates those commodities reported both up and down in price.

December 2021 Manufacturing Index Summaries

Manufacturing PMI®

Manufacturing grew in December, as the Manufacturing PMI registered 58.7 percent, 2.4 percentage points lower than the November reading of 61.1 percent. “The Manufacturing PMI continued to indicate strong sector expansion and U.S. economic growth in December. All five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI were in growth territory. All of the six biggest manufacturing industries expanded, in the following order: Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; and Petroleum & Coal Products. The New Orders and Production indexes remained at strong levels. The Supplier Deliveries Index softened but continued to reflect suppliers’ difficulties in maintaining delivery rates. All 10 of the subindexes were positive for the period; a reading of ‘too low’ for the Customers’ Inventories Index is considered a positive for future production,” Fiore said. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A Manufacturing PMI above 43.1 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the December Manufacturing PMI indicates the overall economy grew in December for the 19th consecutive month following contraction in April 2020. “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Manufacturing PMI for December (58.7 percent) corresponds to a 4.4-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” says Fiore.

The Last 12 Months

New Orders

ISM’s New Orders Index registered 60.4 percent in December, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points compared to the 61.5 percent reported in November. This indicates that new orders grew for the 19th consecutive month. “All of the six largest manufacturing sectors — Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; and Computer & Electronic Products, in that order — expanded at moderate-to-strong levels, up from just three the previous month,” says Fiore. A New Orders Index above 52.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

Thirteen of 18 manufacturing industries reported growth in new orders in December, in the following order: Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Petroleum & Coal Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The two industries reporting a decline in new orders in December are: Wood Products; and Paper Products.

Production

The Production Index registered 59.2 percent in December, 2.3 percentage points lower than the November reading of 61.5 percent, indicating growth for the 19th consecutive month. “Four of the top six industries — Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Transportation Equipment — expanded at moderate-to-strong levels. Raw material and labor shortages remain a constraint to production growth, as suppliers continue to struggle. Panelist sentiment on labor and material shortages improved for a second month, albeit at a low level,” says Fiore. An index above 52.1 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.

The 10 industries reporting growth in production during the month of December — listed in order — are: Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Textile Mills; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The four industries reporting a decrease in December are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Primary Metals.

Employment

ISM’s Employment Index registered 54.2 percent in December, 0.9 percentage point above the November reading of 53.3 percent. “The index reported a fourth consecutive month of expansion. Of the six big manufacturing sectors, three (Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; and Computer & Electronic Products) expanded. Survey panelists’ companies are still struggling to meet labor-management plans, but for a fourth month, there were modest signs of progress: A stable share of comments (7 percent in both December and November, compared to 5 percent in October) noted greater hiring ease. An overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire, as 85 percent of Employment Index comments were hiring focused. Among those respondents, 37 percent expressed difficulty in filling positions, a decrease from November. A high level of comments regarding turnover rates (backfills and retirements) in December continued a trend that began in August,” says Fiore. An Employment Index above 50.6 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of 18 manufacturing industries, eight industries reported employment growth in December, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The five industries reporting a decrease in employment in December are: Textile Mills; Wood Products; Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.

Supplier Deliveries†


The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower in December, as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 64.9 percent, 7.3 percentage points lower than the 72.2 percent reported in November. Five of the six top manufacturing industries — Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment — reported slowing deliveries. “Deliveries slowed at a slower rate compared to the previous month. The index continues to reflect suppliers’ difficulties in meeting panelist companies’ demand, but for the second straight month, supply chain performance is moving toward a more appropriate balance with demand. Capital expenditure lead times continue at modern-era records. Production materials lead times registered a 5-percent improvement from the prior month but remain at near-record levels. The Supplier Deliveries Index, Prices Index and material lead times softening in November and December indicate progress against the supply/demand imbalance,” says Fiore. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

Fourteen of 18 industries reported slower supplier deliveries in December, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment. The two industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in December as compared to November are: Wood Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

Inventories

The Inventories Index registered 54.7 percent in December, 2.1 percentage points lower than the 56.8 percent reported for November. “Manufacturing inventories continued to expand but at lower levels, as end-of-year working capital targets are likely a cause of softening in the index. Also, the index somewhat reflects an improved flow of raw materials to factories,” says Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 44.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

The 10 industries reporting higher inventories in December — in the following order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; and Computer & Electronic Products. The four industries reporting a decrease in inventories in December are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Primary Metals.

Customers’ Inventories†


ISM’s Customers’ Inventories Index registered 31.7 percent in December, 6.6 percentage points higher than the 25.1 percent reported for November, indicating that customers’ inventory levels were considered too low. “Customers’ inventories are too low for the 63rd consecutive month, a positive for future production growth. For 17 straight months, the Customers’ Inventories Index has been at historically low levels,” says Fiore.

No industries reported higher customers’ inventories in December. The 14 industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low during December — listed in order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Textile Mills; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

Prices†


The ISM Prices Index registered 68.2 percent, a decrease of 14.2 percentage points compared to the November reading of 82.4 percent, indicating raw materials prices increased for the 19th consecutive month, at a slower rate in December. This is the 16th month in a row that the index has been above 60 percent. “Aluminum; corrugate and packaging materials; electrical and electronic components; energy; lumber; freight; and some steels continue to remain at elevated prices due to product scarcity amongst high demand,” says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.7 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.

In December, 16 industries reported paying increased prices for raw materials, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Wood Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Plastics & Rubber Products. Only one industry, Petroleum & Coal Products, reported paying decreased prices for raw materials.

Backlog of Orders†

ISM’s Backlog of Orders Index registered 62.8 percent in December, a 0.9-percentage point increase compared to the 61.9 percent reported in November, indicating order backlogs expanded for the 18th straight month. This is the 11th consecutive month with a reading above 60 percent. “Backlogs expanded at a slightly faster rate in December, indicating incoming business remains high. All six big industry sectors (Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products, in that order), reported that backlogs expanded strongly,” says Fiore.

The 11 industries reporting growth in order backlogs in December, in the following order, are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The only industry reporting lower backlogs in December is Furniture & Related Products. Six industries reported no change in backlogs of orders when comparing December’s levels to November.

New Export Orders†

ISM’s New Export Orders Index registered 53.6 percent in December, down 0.4 percentage point compared to the November reading of 54 percent. “The New Export Orders Index grew for the 18th consecutive month, at a slightly slower rate. Of the six big industry sectors, four (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment) expanded. New export orders activity was a contributor to the New Orders Index continuing in strong expansion territory,” says Fiore.

The six industries reporting growth in new export orders in December — in the following order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment. The three industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in December are: Textile Mills; Paper Products; and Machinery. Seven industries reported no change in exports in December as compared to November.

Imports†

ISM’s Imports Index registered 53.8 percent in December, an increase of 1.2 percentage points compared to November’s figure of 52.6 percent. “Imports expanded in December for the second consecutive month, in spite of continuing challenges with throughput at U.S. ports of entry. Overland transport challenges and container shortages continue to persist across the global supply chain, causing instability with import-level projections. Imports will continue to be challenged through the first half of 2022,” says Fiore.

The six industries reporting growth in imports in December — in the following order — are: Furniture & Related Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; and Chemical Products. The five industries reporting a decrease in imports in December are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. Seven industries reported no change in imports in December as compared to November.

†The Supplier Deliveries, Customers’ Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

Buying Policy

Average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in December was 161 days, an increase of one day compared to November. Capital Expenditures lead times have increased in 10 of the last 12 months for a net increase of 20 days since January 2021 (141 days). Average lead time in December for Production Materials decreased by five days to 91 days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies was 48 days, up four days compared to November.

Posted: January 4, 2022

Source: Institute for Supply Management

ZURICH — January 4, 2022 — In January 2022, the textile division of ARISE Integrated Industrial Platform (IIP), based in the UAE, has joined ITMF as a new Corporate Member.

ARISE Integrated Industrial Platforms (IIP) identifies industrial gaps in African countries to unlock value and create new industries. The objective is to industrialize key sectors by creating local transformation, maximizing production, efficiency, and cost, which in turn generates local value addition.

Arise IIP seek to boost exports, enable local transformation of raw materials and promote trade by tailor-made special economic zones in Gabon, Benin and Togo. In Benin and Togo Arise IIP will focus at creating value chains for the textile industry – from raw material sourcing to resource transformation through manufacturing, to exporting final products.

The International Textile Manufacturers Federation (ITMF) founded in 1904 is the international forum of the global textile value chain. Its members are from textile and apparel producing countries representing 90 percent of global production.

“By becoming a Corporate Member of ITMF, Arise IIP will benefit from a unique international network, the expertise of ITMF, and an international platform for the global textile value chain where international trends and are discussed. Likewise, ITMF and ITMF’s members will benefit from Arise’s activities in West Africa”, stated Dr. Christian Schindler, director general of ITMF.

Rajaguru Raja, the CEO of Arise IIP (Textile Division), commented that “by joining ITMF we have access to all major players in the global textile and apparel value chain. The world is getting more and more integrated. Therefore, cooperation along the global textile value chain and understanding its complexity and dynamics are paramount”.

Posted: January 4, 2022

Source: The International Textile Manufacturers Federation (ITMF)