TEMPE, Ariz.— March 2, 2020 — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in February, and the overall economy grew for the 130th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.
The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The February PMI® registered 50.1 percent, down 0.8 percentage point from the January reading of 50.9 percent. The New Orders Index registered 49.8 percent, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the January reading of 52 percent. The Production Index registered 50.3 percent, down 4 percentage points compared to the January reading of 54.3 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 50.3 percent, an increase of 4.6 percentage points compared to the January reading of 45.7 percent. The Employment Index registered 46.9 percent, an increase of 0.3 percentage point from the January reading of 46.6 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 57.3 percent, up 4.4 percentage points from the January reading of 52.9 percent. The Inventories Index registered 46.5 percent, 2.3 percentage points lower than the January reading of 48.8 percent. The Prices Index registered 45.9 percent, down 7.4 percentage points as compared to the January reading of 53.3 percent. The New Export Orders Index registered 51.2 percent, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points as compared to the January reading of 53.3 percent. The Imports Index registered 42.6 percent, an 8.7-percentage point decrease from the January reading of 51.3 percent.
“Comments from the panel were generally positive, with sentiment cautious compared to January. The PMI® remained in expansion territory, but at a weak level. Demand slumped, with (1) the New Orders Index contracting at a weak level, despite new export order expansion, (2) the Customers’ Inventories Index remaining at ‘too low’ status and (3) the Backlog of Orders Index expanding for the first time in several months, but at a slow rate. Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) contributed negatively (a combined 3.7-percentage point decrease) to the PMI® calculation. Inputs — expressed as supplier deliveries, inventories and imports — strengthened in February, due primarily to supplier deliveries expanding, offset partially by inventories declining. Despite imports contraction returning at a strong rate, inputs contributed positively to the PMI® calculation, a reversal from the previous month. (The Supplier Deliveries and Inventories indexes directly factor into the PMI®; the Imports Index does not.) Prices returned to contraction, at moderately strong levels.
“Global supply chains are impacting most, if not all, of the manufacturing industry sectors. Among the six big industry sectors, Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products remains the strongest, followed by Computer & Electronic Products. Petroleum & Coal Products is the weakest. Overall, sentiment this month is marginally positive regarding near-term growth,” says Fiore.
Of the 18 manufacturing industries, the 14 that reported growth in February — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Textile Mills; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; and Chemical Products. The three industries reporting contraction in February are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products.
What Respondents Are Saying
“There are always supply chain challenges with Lunar New Year shutdowns, and this year is no different. Coronavirus is wreaking havoc on the electronics industry. Companies are delayed in starting up production, which is resulting in longer lead times, constraints and increased pricing. It’s a mad dash to dual source stateside in case China isn’t back online soon.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
“January started out strong, but the effects of the virus in China [and] the continued grounding of the 737 Max have suppressed new orders. We are still expected to be flat to slightly up [year-over-year] for 2020 sales, based on those issues.” (Chemical Products)
“Layoffs are here.” (Transportation Equipment)
“Coronavirus and its impact on the supply chain: We will see some softness in demand, but also [experience] havoc on items sourced from China that may cause significant delays to production.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
“Energy markets seem to be responding to a potential drop in demand that may be related to responses [to] the coronavirus.” (Petroleum & Coal Products)
“Coronavirus continues to be front and center as a major supply chain risk to our company. Access to information in China — from our supply base and customers — is slow to come by.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
“Sales continue to be strong, with the supply base able to support as required. The major concern is the China virus and what that crisis could affect in getting parts. The company is putting plans in place to source out locations, especially in the U.S., for parts.” (Machinery)
“Business continues to be strong. We had a little January slowdown, but February has been fantastic.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)
“We have seen an increase of sales for our products.” (Furniture & Related Products)
“Current favorable forecast to budget for first-quarter sales.” (Primary Metals)
| MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
February 2020 |
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| Index | Series IndexFeb | Series IndexJan | Percentage
Point Change |
Direction | Rate of Change | Trend* (Months) |
| PMI® | 50.1 | 50.9 | -0.8 | Growing | Slower | 2 |
| New Orders | 49.8 | 52.0 | -2.2 | Contracting | From Growing | 1 |
| Production | 50.3 | 54.3 | -4.0 | Growing | Slower | 2 |
| Employment | 46.9 | 46.6 | +0.3 | Contracting | Slower | 7 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 57.3 | 52.9 | +4.4 | Slowing | Faster | 4 |
| Inventories | 46.5 | 48.8 | -2.3 | Contracting | Faster | 9 |
| Customers’ Inventories | 41.8 | 43.8 | -2.0 | Too Low | Faster | 41 |
| Prices | 45.9 | 53.3 | -7.4 | Decreasing | From Increasing | 1 |
| Backlog of Orders | 50.3 | 45.7 | +4.6 | Growing | From Contracting | 1 |
| New Export Orders | 51.2 | 53.3 | -2.1 | Growing | Slower | 2 |
| Imports | 42.6 | 51.3 | -8.7 | Contracting | From Growing | 1 |
| OVERALL ECONOMY | Growing | Slower | 130 | |||
| Manufacturing Sector | Growing | Slower | 2 | |||
Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.
COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY
Commodities Up in Price Capacitors; Crude Oil* (2); Resistors; Steel — Hot Rolled* (4); and Steel Products.
Commodities Down in Price Aluminum; Aluminum Products (2); Copper; Corrugate; Crude Oil*; Natural Gas (3); Polypropylene (4); Scrap; Steel — Hot Rolled*; and Steel — Stainless.
Commodities in Short Supply None.
Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
*Indicates both up and down in price.
FEBRUARY 2020 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES
PMI®
Manufacturing expanded in February, as the PMI® registered 50.1 percent, a 0.8-percentage point decrease from the January reading of 50.9 percent. “The PMI® expanded in February, but at a slower rate. Four of the big six industries expanded, at similar rates compared to January. Four of the PMI®’s 10 subindexes recorded expansion, down from six the previous month,” says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.
A PMI® above 42.8 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the February PMI® indicates growth for the 130th consecutive month in the overall economy, and the second month of growth following five months of contraction in the manufacturing sector. “The past relationship between the PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the PMI® for February (50.1 percent) corresponds to a 2.1-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” says Fiore.
THE LAST 12 MONTHS
| Month | PMI® | Month | PMI® | |
| Feb 2020 | 50.1 | Aug 2019 | 48.8 | |
| Jan 2020 | 50.9 | Jul 2019 | 51.3 | |
| Dec 2019 | 47.8 | Jun 2019 | 51.6 | |
| Nov 2019 | 48.1 | May 2019 | 52.3 | |
| Oct 2019 | 48.5 | Apr 2019 | 53.4 | |
| Sep 2019 | 48.2 | Mar 2019 | 54.6 | |
| Average for 12 months – 50.5
High – 54.6 Low – 47.8 |
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New Orders
ISM®’s New Orders Index registered 49.8 percent in February, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points when compared to the 52 percent reported for January. This indicates that new orders contracted after growing in January. “Of the top six industry sectors, four expanded, with Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products expanding respectably. Transportation Equipment and Petroleum & Coal Products continue to be challenged,” says Fiore. A New Orders Index above 52.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).
Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 16 reported growth in new orders in February, in the following order: Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary Metals; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products. The two industries reporting a decline in new orders in February are: Petroleum & Coal Products; and Transportation Equipment.
| New Orders | %Higher | %Same | %Lower | Net | Index |
| Feb 2020 | 28.8 | 49.1 | 22.0 | +6.8 | 49.8 |
| Jan 2020 | 24.8 | 54.4 | 20.8 | +4.0 | 52.0 |
| Dec 2019 | 18.6 | 51.2 | 30.2 | -11.6 | 47.6 |
| Nov 2019 | 20.5 | 48.3 | 31.2 | -10.7 | 46.8 |
Production
ISM®’s Production Index registered 50.3 percent in February, 4 percentage points lower than the 54.3 percent reported for January, registering two months of growth following five consecutive months of contraction. “Two of six big industry sectors expanded, down from five in the previous month. Production was restricted due to disruptions in the supply chain across multiple industry sectors,” says Fiore. An index above 51.7 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.
The 12 industries reporting growth in production during the month of February — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Textile Mills; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The three industries reporting a decrease in production in February are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Transportation Equipment.
| Production | %Higher | %Same | %Lower | Net | Index |
| Feb 2020 | 26.4 | 53.5 | 20.1 | +6.3 | 50.3 |
| Jan 2020 | 25.3 | 55.9 | 18.8 | +6.5 | 54.3 |
| Dec 2019 | 15.8 | 49.8 | 34.4 | -18.6 | 44.8 |
| Nov 2019 | 20.3 | 56.3 | 23.4 | -3.1 | 48.0 |
Employment
ISM®’s Employment Index registered 46.9 percent in February, an increase of 0.3 percentage point compared to the January reading of 46.6 percent. “This is the seventh month of employment contraction, but at a slower rate compared to January. Among the six big industry sectors, two expanded and four contracted. Panelist comments were generally cautious regarding future employment potential,” says Fiore. An Employment Index above 50.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.
Of the 18 manufacturing industries, three reported employment growth in February: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The nine industries reporting a decrease in employment in February, in the following order, are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; Primary Metals; Textile Mills; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products. Six industries reported no change in February compared to January.
| Employment | %Higher | %Same | %Lower | Net | Index |
| Feb 2020 | 11.7 | 69.1 | 19.2 | -7.5 | 46.9 |
| Jan 2020 | 11.7 | 66.0 | 22.3 | -10.6 | 46.6 |
| Dec 2019 | 11.5 | 63.7 | 24.8 | -13.3 | 45.2 |
| Nov 2019 | 13.9 | 64.9 | 21.2 | -7.3 | 46.8 |
Supplier Deliveries†
The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower in February, as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 57.3 percent. This is 4.4 percentage points higher than the 52.9 percent reported for January. “Suppliers continue to struggle to deliver, at a stronger rate compared to January. The index reached its highest level since November 2018, when it registered 61 percent. Lead times are generally stable. Concerns about current and ongoing reliable Asian supply dominated the comments from panelists,” says Fiore. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.
The 13 industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in February — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Paper Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery. The only industry reporting faster supplier deliveries in February is Primary Metals.
| Supplier Deliveries | %Slower | %Same | %Faster | Net | Index |
| Feb 2020 | 20.3 | 74.0 | 5.7 | +14.6 | 57.3 |
| Jan 2020 | 16.8 | 72.3 | 10.9 | +5.9 | 52.9 |
| Dec 2019 | 11.5 | 81.4 | 7.0 | +4.5 | 52.2 |
| Nov 2019 | 11.3 | 80.8 | 8.0 | +3.3 | 51.7 |
Inventories
The Inventories Index registered 46.5 percent in February, a 2.3-percentage point decrease from the 48.8 percent reported for January. “The index contracted for a ninth straight month at a faster rate, and reaching its lowest level since September 2019, when it registered 46.3 percent. Inventories are expected to grow as disruptions in the supply chain lead to inefficiencies in material conversion,” says Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 44.3 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).
The five industries reporting higher inventories in February are: Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The nine industries reporting a decrease in inventories in February — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Fabricated Metal Products.
| Inventories | %Higher | %Same | %Lower | Net | Index |
| Feb 2020 | 14.9 | 66.6 | 18.5 | -3.6 | 46.5 |
| Jan 2020 | 18.2 | 61.2 | 20.6 | -2.4 | 48.8 |
| Dec 2019 | 17.5 | 58.1 | 24.4 | -6.9 | 49.2 |
| Nov 2019 | 15.4 | 60.2 | 24.4 | -9.0 | 47.2 |
Customers’ Inventories†
ISM®’s Customers’ Inventories Index registered 41.8 percent in February, which is 2 percentage points lower than the 43.8 percent reported for January, indicating that customers’ inventory levels were considered too low. “Customers’ inventories are too low for the 41st consecutive month and continue to move away from ‘about right’ territory. These inventories remain at a healthy level to support future production output,” says Fiore.
Of 18 industries, the only industry reporting higher customer inventories in February is Transportation Equipment. The 11 industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low during February — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Wood Products; Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; Primary Metals; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. Six industries reported no change in customers’ inventories orders in February.
| Customers’ Inventories | % Reporting | %Too High | %About Right | %Too Low | Net | Index |
| Feb 2020 | 76 | 6.6 | 70.4 | 23.0 | -16.4 | 41.8 |
| Jan 2020 | 77 | 10.1 | 67.5 | 22.4 | -12.3 | 43.8 |
| Dec 2019 | 79 | 8.8 | 64.7 | 26.5 | -17.7 | 41.1 |
| Nov 2019 | 76 | 9.7 | 70.6 | 19.7 | -10.0 | 45.0 |
Prices†
The ISM® Prices Index registered 45.9 percent in February, a decrease of 7.4 percentage points from the January reading of 53.3 percent, indicating raw materials prices decreased after increasing for two consecutive months. “Prices contracted in February, driven primarily by steel, scrap steel, aluminum, natural gas, corrugate, copper and all basic manufacturing fundamentals,” says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.
The five industries reporting paying increased prices for raw materials in February are: Wood Products; Textile Mills; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Fabricated Metal Products. The eight industries reporting a decrease in prices for raw materials in February — listed in order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Transportation Equipment.
| Prices | %Higher | %Same | %Lower | Net | Index |
| Feb 2020 | 16.6 | 58.6 | 24.8 | -8.2 | 45.9 |
| Jan 2020 | 23.8 | 59.2 | 17.1 | +6.7 | 53.3 |
| Dec 2019 | 16.5 | 70.5 | 13.0 | +3.5 | 51.7 |
| Nov 2019 | 14.6 | 64.2 | 21.3 | -6.7 | 46.7 |
Backlog of Orders†
ISM®’s Backlog of Orders Index registered 50.3 percent in February, 4.6 percentage points higher than the 45.7 percent reported in January, indicating order backlogs grew after contracting for nine consecutive months. “Backlogs entered expansion territory, a positive for the future months, but at weak levels. Backlog growth is supported by suppliers having trouble delivering materials to support production. The index recorded its strongest performance since April 2019, when it registered 53.9 percent. Three of the six big industry sectors’ backlogs contracted during the period, up from two the previous month,” says Fiore.
Eleven of the 18 industries reported growth in order backlogs in February, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Wood Products; Primary Metals; Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; and Fabricated Metal Products. Four industries reported lower order backlogs in February: Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Chemical Products.
| Backlog of Orders | % Reporting | %Higher | %Same | %Lower | Net | Index |
| Feb 2020 | 88 | 21.8 | 57.0 | 21.3 | +0.5 | 50.3 |
| Jan 2020 | 88 | 17.1 | 57.2 | 25.6 | -8.5 | 45.7 |
| Dec 2019 | 89 | 12.6 | 61.4 | 26.0 | -13.4 | 43.3 |
| Nov 2019 | 90 | 16.2 | 53.7 | 30.1 | -13.9 | 43.0 |
New Export Orders†
ISM®’s New Export Orders Index registered 51.2 percent in February, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points compared to the January reading of 53.3 percent. This is the second consecutive month of growth. “New export orders remained in expansion territory, but at weaker levels compared to the prior month. Three of the six big industry sectors expanded during the period, up from two the previous month. Many respondents reported that their operations were impacted by the coronavirus outbreak,” said Fiore.
The eight industries reporting growth in new export orders in February, in the following order, are: Wood Products; Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; and Machinery. The four industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in February are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.
| New Export Orders | % Reporting | %Higher | %Same | %Lower | Net | Index |
| Feb 2020 | 78 | 14.8 | 72.9 | 12.3 | +2.5 | 51.2 |
| Jan 2020 | 77 | 15.4 | 75.9 | 8.8 | +6.6 | 53.3 |
| Dec 2019 | 79 | 11.3 | 72.2 | 16.6 | -5.3 | 47.3 |
| Nov 2019 | 77 | 11.0 | 73.9 | 15.1 | -4.1 | 47.9 |
Imports†
ISM®’s Imports Index registered 42.6 percent in February, a decrease of 8.7 percentage points when compared to the 51.3 percent reported for January. This indicates that imports contracted after growing for one month. “Imports returned to contraction territory, with the index recording its weakest performance since May 2009, when it recorded 38.5 percent. Respondents noted the combined effects of the Lunar New Year as well as the coronavirus. Lower imports will continue as the effects of the virus are better understood,” says Fiore.
The five industries reporting growth in imports in February are: Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products. The 10 industries reporting a decrease in imports in February — in the following order — are: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Petroleum & Coal Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.
| Imports | % Reporting | %Higher | %Same | %Lower | Net | Index |
| Feb 2020 | 85 | 12.2 | 60.8 | 27.0 | -14.8 | 42.6 |
| Jan 2020 | 84 | 13.6 | 75.4 | 11.0 | +2.6 | 51.3 |
| Dec 2019 | 85 | 13.3 | 71.0 | 15.7 | -2.4 | 48.8 |
| Nov 2019 | 82 | 10.3 | 76.1 | 13.6 | -3.3 | 48.3 |
†The Supplier Deliveries, Customers’ Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.
Buying Policy
Average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures increased by three days in February to 143 days. Average lead time for Production Materials decreased by one day in February to 64 days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies decreased by one day in February to 31 days.
| Percent Reporting | |||||||
| Capital Expenditures | Hand-to-Mouth | 30 Days | 60 Days | 90 Days | 6 Months | 1 Year+ | Average Days |
| Feb 2020 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 28 | 19 | 143 |
| Jan 2020 | 22 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 25 | 19 | 140 |
| Dec 2019 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 26 | 21 | 147 |
| Nov 2019 | 20 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 27 | 20 | 144 |
| Production Materials | Hand-to-Mouth | 30 Days | 60 Days | 90 Days | 6 Months | 1 Year+ | Average Days |
| Feb 2020 | 10 | 34 | 28 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 64 |
| Jan 2020 | 11 | 34 | 27 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 65 |
| Dec 2019 | 11 | 33 | 28 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 63 |
| Nov 2019 | 12 | 36 | 28 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 61 |
| MRO Supplies | Hand-to-Mouth | 30 Days | 60 Days | 90 Days | 6 Months | 1 Year+ | Average Days |
| Feb 2020 | 40 | 38 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 31 |
| Jan 2020 | 40 | 36 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 32 |
| Dec 2019 | 40 | 35 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 37 |
| Nov 2019 | 41 | 36 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 31 |
Posted March 2, 2020
Source Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) — Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®
