BIRKENHEAD, United Kingdom — June 23, 2011 — Cotlook has made significant changes to its estimates
of world production (notably for the United States and China) and consumption (mainly China and the
Indian subcontinent).
The adjustment to US 2011/12 crop production predictably reflects the continuing drought in
major cotton tracts (notably West Texas, but also Georgia), while the reductions for China are made
on the premise that recent estimates of output in Xinjiang have been overstated. Some loss of
production has been noted from the 2010/11 crop in Brazil, owing to yield uncertainties in the
principal growing state, Mato Grosso. Uzbek prospects for 2011/12 have been dimmed somewhat owing
to less abundant moisture. Our global production forecast for 2011/12 is now 26,733,000 tonnes,
down 751,000 from a month ago.
Reductions to our estimates of consumption are derived from a less optimistic view of the
outlook for global recovery in the foreseeable future, with mills still unable to work-off large
yarn inventories, and continued signs of cotton losing share to man made fibres.World consumption
next season is now forecast at 25,456,000 tonnes, down 890,000 tonnes on the month. Nevertheless,
the total would still represent an increase compared with the current season of close to five
percent (our previous forecast suggested eight percent).
The changes to our production and consumption numbers suggest a greater decline in world
stocks during the 2010/11 season and a larger increase in 2011/12.
Posted on June 27, 2011
Source: Cotlook Ltd.
