TEMPE, Ariz. — November 2, 2026 — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in October for the 10th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM^® Manufacturing PMI^® Report.

The report was issued today by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

“The Manufacturing PMI^® registered 55.5 percent in October, 1 percentage point above the September figure of 54.5 percent. The overall economy expanded for the 24th month in a row. (A Manufacturing PMI^® above 47.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index expanded for the 10th consecutive month after four straight readings in contraction, registering 55.5 percent, up 0.2 percentage point compared to September’s figure of 55.3 percent. The October reading of the Production Index (59 percent) is 2.3 percentage points higher than the 56.7 percent recorded in September and the highest since November 2021 (60.5 percent). The Prices Index remained in expansion (or ‘increasing’ territory), registering 75.2 percent, a 2.7-percentage point decrease compared to September’s reading of 77.9 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 54.6 percent, down 1.8 percentage points compared to the 56.4 percent recorded in September. The Employment Index reading of 52.4 percent is down 0.3 percentage point from September’s figure of 52.7 percent,” says Spence.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated slowing performance for the 11th month in a row after one month in ‘faster’ territory. The reading of 59.1 percent is up 0.1 percentage point from its September reading of 59 percent. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM^® PMI^® Reports index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Inventories Index registered 51.4 percent, returning to expansion and up 2.8 percentage points compared to September’s reading of 48.6 percent. The Customers’ Inventories Index reading of 41.6 percent is the same as in September.

“The New Export Orders Index gained 0.3 percentage points in October for a reading of 51.2 percent versus 50.9 percent in September. The Imports Index registered 52.9 percent, an increase of 1.9 percentage points compared to September’s reading of 51 percent.”

Spence continues, “In October, U.S. manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory. Of the five subindexes that make up the PMI^®, four (New Orders, Production, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories) grew faster than the previous month, while Employment growth slowed down by 0.3 percentage point. In October, general sentiment got worse for a third month in a row, with 34 percent of the comments positive and 66 percent negative (a 1-to-2 ratio of positive to negative sentiment). Among negative comments, pricing volatility was mentioned in 62 percent, longer lead times 41 percent, tariffs 25 percent and the Iran war 21 percent; most comments mentioned multiple factors.

“In October, three of four demand indicators (the New Orders, Backlog of Orders and New Export Orders indexes) remained in expansion, and the Customers’ Inventories Index remained in ‘too low’ territory, contracting at the same rate as last month. A ‘too low’ status for the Customers’ Inventories Index is usually considered positive for future production.

“Regarding output, the Production Index expanded for the 12th month in a row, with the positive-to-negative comment ratio improving to 2 positive comments for every negative one (compared to the 1.6-to-1 ratio in September). The Employment Index remained in expansion but lost 0.3 percentage point. The positive-to-negative comments ratio on Employment was 1.8-to-1 in October.

“Finally, inputs (defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports) were mixed, with the Supplier Deliveries Index increasing 0.1 percentage point, the Inventories Index gaining 2.8 percentage points and returning to expansion, and the Prices Index decreasing 2.7 percentage points. The Imports Index gained 1.9 percentage points, to 52.9 percent versus 51 percent in September.

“Looking at the manufacturing economy, 6 percent of the sector’s gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in October, compared to 2 percent in September, and 6 percent of manufacturing GDP was in strong contraction (defined as a composite PMI^® of 45 percent or lower), compared to 2 percent in September. The share of sector GDP with a PMI^® at or below 45 percent is a good metric to gauge overall manufacturing weakness. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, five (Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) expanded in October.”

The 12 manufacturing industries reporting growth in October — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Textile Mills; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The three industries reporting a contraction in October are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

• “Negative, inflation, in the red’ are the three words or phrases that best describe our strategic sourcing for 2026. We generally assume inflation at 2 percent to 3 percent year over year, and we usually do a great job keeping costs under the 2-percent increase. This year, costs are up more than 6 percent, and we are not doing much to keep any of the spend categories under the target. Of the tracked items, only nine are lower, 24 are higher and six are neutral. The red is a bit disturbing. Despite the cost pressures, sales have been OK. It won’t be a great year. It’s hard to get excited about OK or just getting by. U.S. economic policy has suffered another year, making it impossible to make sound long-term decisions.” [Chemical Products]
• “Global demand for capital scientific instrumentation assets has slowed due to continued uncertainty in the Middle East, Eastern Europe and China. Anticipation over the midterm elections and impact to funding for scientific research and the National Institutes of Health also is impacting customers’ purchasing behavior, making them focus on optimizing existing technology and tools.” [Computer & Electronic Products]
• “Economic policies coming out of Washington continue to weigh on business conditions. Customers are unwilling to make commitments to anything other than the shortest term due to the vast uncertainty. Canadian tariffs continue to damage small U.S. businesses selling into that important market.” [Fabricated Metal Products]
• “Inflationary pressures and volatile commodity markets continue to create challenging scenarios and unfavorable impact to purchase price variance. Diesel rates and the trucker shortage are impacting costs beyond the raw material inputs to levels I have never seen.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]
• “Business remains strong, largely driven not only by data centers and mission critical infrastructure, but also the continued replacement of municipal infrastructures particularly related to water. Mining continues to be strong as well.” [Machinery]
• “Explosive growth in the semiconductor and government/defense spaces has put us on our heels as we try to work through demand. The long-awaited wave has arrived for our company, and it seems the global supply chain is in similar straits. Lead times and prices are increasing, and some carry COVID-19 era delays — four weeks is now 50 weeks; a US$2,000 item six months ago is now $4,000. We are hand-to-mouth. All the while, our customers are breaking down the doors complaining about our delivery delays.” [Machinery]
• “New month, same trends: Any commodity consumed by AI/data centers is in a crunch, both for supply and pricing. We keep wondering when the madness will stop. In spite of these challenges, our demand remains strong and the supply chain is getting by, albeit with a lot of work. As we plan next year’s budget, it’s sobering to roll up the annualized impact of (1) remaining tariffs, (2) AI-impacted commodity price increases and (3) price increases related to geopolitically influenced commodities.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]
• “Customers continue to be in a wait-and-see mode. There is no momentum to purchase, as our customers’ customers aren’t in urgent need of equipment. There has been tentative talk of 2027 purchases, but no discussion of larger-than-historical needs moving into the new year. Customers continue to be gobsmacked by the high price of equipment when they ask for quotes. Typically, we see a fourth-quarter bump as customers use up end-of-year budgets. This year, that bump does not exist.” [Transportation Equipment]
• “The trucking industry is experiencing mixed signals. While major companies are making significant strategic investments and consolidations (acquisitions, autonomous technology and electric vehicle infrastructure), underlying freight demand appears softer. Truck tonnage metrics are declining year-over-year, new-vehicle sales are falling, and consumer confidence is weakening. However, elevated diesel prices continue to support trucking company revenues through fuel surcharges, even as freight volumes remain challenged. The economy is growing at a moderate pace, with inflation concerns persisting.” [Transportation Equipment]
• “Material shortages abound. Fuel remains high. Uncertainty remains constant. Though not a presidential election, the election-year dynamic has begun to take hold a bit. Canadian tariffs continue to have a negative impact on steel.” [Primary Metals]

ISM^® Manufacturing PMI^® Report data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Aluminum* (35); Copper (16); Corrugated Products (7); Diesel Fuel (3); Electronic Components (10); Energy; Freight (8); Fuel (8); Memory Components (8); Methanol; Oil Based Products (7); Paper Products; Printed Circuit Boards (4); Resins (9); Semiconductors (5); Steel (12); Steel — Hot Rolled (10); Steel — Stainless (9); Steel Products (11); and Tungsten.

Commodities Down in Price
Aluminum*; and Polypropylene Resin.

Commodities in Short Supply
Aluminum Products (2); Copper (4); Electrical Components (16); Electronic Components (20); Integrated Circuits; Memory (10); Printed Circuit Boards (4); and Steel (4).

*Indicates both up and down in price.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

OCTOBER 2026 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

Manufacturing PMI^®
The U.S. manufacturing sector expanded in October for the 10th straight month following a 10-month period of contraction, registering 55.5 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point compared to September. All five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI^® — New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories — were in expansion territory, one more than in September. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, five (Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) expanded in October. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A Manufacturing PMI^® above 47.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the October Manufacturing PMI^® indicates the overall economy grew for the 24th straight month. “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI^® and the overall economy indicates that October reading (55.5 percent) corresponds to a 2.7-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” says Spence.

THE LAST 12 MONTHS

New Orders
ISM^®‘s New Orders Index expanded in October with a reading of 55.5 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage point compared to September’s reading of 55.3 percent. “Of the six largest manufacturing industries, four (Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products) reported increased new orders. Demand sentiment in October was 1.8 positive comments for every negative comment, a very slight improvement from last month’s 1.7-to-1 ratio,” says Spence. A New Orders Index above 51.9 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The 11 manufacturing industries that reported growth in new orders in October, in order, are: Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Paper Products. The four industries reporting a decline in new orders in October are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Wood Products.

Production
The Production Index expanded in October for the 12th month in a row, registering 59 percent, a 2.3-percentage point increase compared to September’s reading of 56.7 percent. This is the index’s highest reading since it registered 60.5 percent in November 2021. “Of the six largest manufacturing industries, four (Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; and Chemical Products) reported increased production. Panelists had a 2-to-1 ratio of positive to negative comments regarding output, up from September’s 1.6-to-1 ratio,” says Spence. An index above 52 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.

The 11 industries reporting growth in production during the month of October — listed in order — are: Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Textile Mills; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products. The three industries that reported a decrease in production in October are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Wood Products.

Employment
ISM^®‘s Employment Index registered 52.4 percent in October, 0.3 percentage point lower than September’s reading of 52.7 percent. “Of the six big manufacturing industries, four (Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) reported higher levels of employment in October. The panelist comment ratio of hiring to managing/reducing head counts was 1.8-to-1,” says Spence. An Employment Index above 50.3 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, eight reported employment growth in October, in the following order: Plastics & Rubber Products; Wood Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The five industries reporting a decrease in employment in October are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Chemical Products.

Supplier Deliveries^†
Delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower in October for the 11th consecutive month. “The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 59.1 percent, 0.1 percentage point higher than September’s reading of 59 percent. Of the six big industries, five (Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) reported slower supplier deliveries,” says Spence. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The 12 manufacturing industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in October, in order, are: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. Two industries (Textile Mills; and Paper Products) reported that supplier deliveries were faster in October.

Inventories
The Inventories Index registered 51.4 percent in October, up 2.8 percentage points compared to the reading of 48.6 percent in September. “Of the six big industries, three (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; and Machinery) expanded inventories in October,” says Spence. An Inventories Index greater than 44.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

Of 18 manufacturing industries, the seven reporting higher inventories in October — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Plastics & Rubber Products; Textile Mills; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Machinery. The six industries reporting lower inventories in October — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Paper Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Chemical Products.

Customers’ Inventories^†
ISM^®‘s Customers’ Inventories Index remained in “too low” territory in October, with a reading of 41.6 percent, the same as September. (For more information about the Customers’ Inventories Index, see the “Data and Method of Presentation” section below.)

No industry reported that customers’ inventories were too high in October. The 11 industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low in October, in order, are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Computer & Electronic Products. Seven industries reported no change in customers’ inventories in October compared to September.

Prices^†
The ISM^® Prices Index registered 75.2 percent in October, 2.7 percentage points lower than the 77.9 percent reported in September; this reading also indicates that raw materials prices increased for the 25th straight month. Five of the six largest manufacturing industries — Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products — reported price increases in October. “The Prices Index reading is still being driven by (1) increases in steel and aluminum prices that impact the entire value chain, (2) tariffs applied to many imported goods and (3) increases in petroleum-based products as a result of the Middle East conflict. Higher prices were reported by 53.1 percent of respondents in October, down 5.5 percentage points from September’s 58.6 percent,” says Spence. A Prices Index above 52.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.

In October, the 16 industries that reported paying increased prices for raw materials, in order, are: Furniture & Related Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Fabricated Metal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Paper Products; Textile Mills; Wood Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. No industries reported paying decreased prices for raw materials in October.

Backlog of Orders^†
ISM^®‘s Backlog of Orders Index registered 54.6 percent in October, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points compared to the September reading of 56.4 percent. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, four (Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Transportation Equipment) reported expansion in order backlogs in October.

The 11 industries reporting higher backlogs in October — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Transportation Equipment. The three industries reporting lower backlogs in October are: Wood Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Chemical Products.

New Export Orders^†
ISM^®‘s New Export Orders Index remained in expansion territory in October, registering 51.2 percent, up 0.3 percentage point from September’s reading of 50.9 percent. “Among panelists’ comments, the positive-to-negative sentiment ratio was 1-to-1.3,” says Spence.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, the two that reported growth in new export orders in October are: Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment. The nine industries that reported a decrease in new export orders in October — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; and Computer & Electronic Products. Seven industries reported no change in exports.

Imports^†
ISM^®‘s Imports Index registered 52.9 percent in October, a 1.9-percentage point increase compared to September’s reading of 51 percent.

The seven industries reporting higher imports in October — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery. The three industries that reported lower volumes in October are: Wood Products; Paper Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. Eight industries reported no change in imports in October compared to September.

^†The Supplier Deliveries, Customers’ Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

Buying Policy
The average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in October was 175 days, one day less than in September. The average lead time in October for Production Materials was 87 days, three days more than in September. The average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies was 46 days, three days less than in September.

Posted: November 3, 2026

Source: Institute for Supply Management