Manufacturing PMI® At 54.5%; September 2026 ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report

TEMPE, Ariz. — October 1, 2026 — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in September for the ninth consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM^® Manufacturing PMI^® Report.

The report was issued today by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

“The Manufacturing PMI^® registered 54.5 percent in September, 0.1 percentage point below the August figure of 54.6 percent. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 23rd month in a row. (A Manufacturing PMI^® above 47.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index expanded for the ninth consecutive month after four straight readings in contraction, registering 55.3 percent, up 1.6 percentage points compared to August’s figure of 53.7 percent. The September reading of the Production Index (56.7 percent) is 1.6 percentage points lower than the 58.3 percent recorded in August. The Prices Index remained in expansion (or ‘increasing’ territory), registering 77.9 percent, a notable increase of 6.8 percentage points compared to August’s reading of 71.1 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 56.4 percent, up 4.6 percentage points compared to the 51.8 percent recorded in August. The Employment Index reading of 52.7 percent is up 1.5 percentage points from August’s figure of 51.2 percent,” says Spence.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated slowing performance for the 10th month in a row after one month in ‘faster’ territory. The reading of 59 percent is down 0.3 percentage point from its August reading of 59.3 percent. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM^® PMI^® Reports index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Inventories Index registered 48.6 percent, down 2 percentage points compared to August’s reading of 50.6 percent. The Customers’ Inventories Index reading of 41.6 percent is 1.2 percentage points lower compared to the 42.8 percent recorded in August.

“The New Export Orders Index lost 2.3 percentage points in September for a reading of 50.9 percent versus 53.2 percent in August. The Imports Index registered 51 percent, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points compared to August’s reading of 52.5 percent.”

Spence continues, “In September, U.S. manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory. Of the five subindexes that make up the PMI^®, only New Orders and Employment grew faster than the previous month. In September, 40 percent of the comments were positive and 60 percent negative, with a 1-to-1.6 ratio of positive to negative sentiment. Among negative comments, pricing volatility was mentioned in 46 percent, tariffs 34 percent, the Iran war 30 percent and increasing lead times 21 percent; most comments mentioned multiple factors.

“In September, three of four demand indicators (the New Orders, Backlog of Orders and New Export Orders indexes) remained in expansion, and the Customers’ Inventories Index remained in ‘too low’ territory, contracting at a faster rate. A ‘too low’ status for the Customers’ Inventories Index is usually considered positive for future production.

“Regarding output, the Production Index expanded for the 11th month in a row, with the positive-to-negative comment ratio dropping again in September (1.6 positive comments for every negative one, compared to a 2.2-to-1 ratio in August and 3.3-to-1 in July). The Employment Index remained in expansion and gained 1.5 percentage points. The positive-to-negative comments ratio on Employment was 1.5-to-1 in September.

“Finally, inputs (defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports) were mixed, with the Supplier Deliveries Index decreasing 0.3 percentage point, the Inventories Index declining another 2 percentage points and returning to contraction, and the Prices Index increasing 6.8 percentage points, returning to its level at the start of the Iran War. The Imports Index lost 1.5 percentage points, to 51 percent versus 52.5 percent in August.

“Looking at the manufacturing economy, 2 percent of the sector’s gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in September, compared to 22 percent in August, and 2 percent of manufacturing GDP was in strong contraction (defined as a composite PMI^® of 45 percent or lower), the same as in August. The share of sector GDP with a PMI^® at or below 45 percent is a good metric to gauge overall manufacturing weakness. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, five (Computer & Electronic Products, Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products, Transportation Equipment, Machinery; and Chemical Products) expanded in September.”

The 12 manufacturing industries reporting growth in September — listed in order — are: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Chemical Products. The two industries reporting a contraction in September are: Printing & Related Support Activities; and Textile Mills.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

• “Better performance was driven primarily by temporary market effects, including (1) geopolitical uncertainties, (2) customers bringing forward purchases, (3) delayed raw material price increases and (4) reduced competitor capacity. However, these factors do not signal sustained recovery: Structural challenges facing the chemical industry remain, including overcapacity, persistent pricing pressures and protectionist trade policies.” [Chemical Products]
• “Supply chain performance has improved compared to prior years, with lead times largely normalized. Cost pressures persist in select raw materials, transportation and labor categories, requiring continued focus on supplier management and cost control. We remain cautiously optimistic about business conditions over the next several quarters.” [Chemical Products]
• “The U.S. tariff schedule is providing challenges. Finding alternate sources of supply outside of China, local pushback on data centers in the U.S. and continuing material/component shortages are affecting business.” [Computer & Electronic Products]
• “Manufacturing activity remains stable, with a continued focus on cost optimization, supplier negotiations and supply base consolidation. We are actively evaluating alternative sources in several categories to improve supply resilience and reduce costs. While material availability has generally improved compared to prior periods, qualification requirements and supplier capacity constraints continue to influence sourcing decisions for certain critical materials and components. Capital and operational spending remain focused on productivity, efficiency and transformation initiatives.” [Computer & Electronic Products]
• “Orders have doubled yet again, and delivery times have also doubled, in the semiconductor, electronics and government sectors, with remaining sectors flat to down. Coupled with supply chain lead times and pricing pressures, the factory backlog has nearly doubled. Canada tariffs have impacted cross-border costs and left our supply chain team scrambling — those supply chains took years to develop and nurture — hurting the very lead times government buyers are concerned about.” [Machinery]
• “Order levels remain strong and elevated; we have orders through year-end at above forecast levels. Our biggest challenge continues to be a severe shortage of workers, limiting our production output to meet demand. The second challenge is general availability of steel; the market is getting worse, and more production delays are expected as we gap out of needed material.” [Fabricated Metal Products]
• “Raw metals continue to be challenging, especially with the uncertain nature of tariffs being on and off again. New tariffs against Canada have drastically increased costs for capital expenses as well as assemblies.” [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]
• “Fuel costs are still affecting transportation costs and the overall cost of goods. Beef costs remain high, with no relief in sight.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]
• “Higher interest rates slow down the growth of new construction projects; we also have to face up to the higher cost of components from overseas due to tariffs and freight rates. Due to booming demand of AI and data centers, domestic steel capacity has been stretched and pushed. Higher steel costs each month increase our raw-material and finished-goods costs.” [Machinery]
• “Every month, we are faced with new headwinds created by this administration. This month, it is the trade war with Canada, which every day is getting worse — causing prices to go up and uncertainty that creates massive disruption. Buying continues to get pushed out indefinitely as customers don’t want to spend on capital expenditures until there is more certainty of costs and demand. The only thing that is predictable is the chaos that is created by these trade policies.” [Transportation Equipment]

ISM^® Manufacturing PMI^® Report data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Aluminum (34); Brass Products; Copper (15); Copper Products (2); Corrugated Products (6); Diesel Fuel (2); Electrical Components (4); Electronic Components (9); Freight (7); Fuel (7); Memory Components (7); Nickel; Oil Based Products (6); Packaging Materials; Plastic Based Products (6); Printed Circuit Boards (3); Resins (8); Semiconductors (4); Soybean Meal; Steel (11); Steel — Hot Rolled (9); Steel — Stainless (8); Steel Products (10); and Zinc.

Commodities Down in Price
None.

Commodities in Short Supply
Aluminum Products; Copper (3); Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM); Electrical Components (15); Electronic Components (19); Memory (9); Printed Circuit Boards (3); Steel (3); Steel — Hot Rolled; Steel Products; and Tungsten Products (3).
Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

SEPTEMBER 2026 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

Manufacturing PMI^®
The U.S. manufacturing sector expanded in September for the ninth straight month following a 10-month period of contraction, registering 54.5 percent, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point compared to August. Of the five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI^® — the New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories indexes — all but Inventories were in expansion territory, one fewer than in August. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, five (Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; and Chemical Products) expanded in September. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A Manufacturing PMI^® above 47.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the September Manufacturing PMI^® indicates the overall economy grew for the 23rd straight month. “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI^® and the overall economy indicates that September reading (54.5 percent) corresponds to a 2.4-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” says Spence.

THE LAST 12 MONTHS

New Orders
ISM^®‘s New Orders Index expanded in September with a reading of 55.3 percent, an increase of 1.6 percentage points compared to August’s reading of 53.7 percent. “Of the six largest manufacturing industries, five (Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery) reported increased new orders. Demand sentiment dropped again in September, with 1.7 positive comments for every negative comment; that ratio was 2-to-1 in August and 3.5-to-1 in July,” says Spence. A New Orders Index above 51.9 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The 10 manufacturing industries that reported growth in new orders in September, in order, are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery. The four industries reporting a decline in new orders in September are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Wood Products.

Production
The Production Index expanded in September for the 11th month in a row, registering 56.7 percent, a 1.6-percentage point decrease compared to August’s reading of 58.3 percent. “Of the six largest manufacturing industries, five (Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products) reported increased production. Panelists had a 1.6-to-1 ratio of positive to negative comments regarding output, down from August’s 2.2-to-1 ratio,” says Spence. An index above 52 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.

The 10 industries reporting growth in production during the month of September — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The three industries that reported a decrease in production in September are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; and Textile Mills.

Employment
ISM^®‘s Employment Index registered 52.7 percent in September, 1.5 percentage points higher than August’s reading of 51.2 percent. “Of the six big manufacturing industries, two (Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment) reported higher levels of employment in September. The panelist comment ratio of hiring to managing/reducing head counts was 1.5-to-1,” says Spence. An Employment Index above 50.3 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, eight reported employment growth in September, in the following order: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; Wood Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; and Fabricated Metal Products. The six industries reporting a decrease in employment in September — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products.

Supplier Deliveries^†
Delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower in September for the 10th consecutive month. “The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 59 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than August’s reading of 59.3 percent. Of the six big industries, five (Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products) reported slower supplier deliveries,” says Spence. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The 12 manufacturing industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in September, in order, are: Paper Products; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products. Two industries (Wood Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing) reported that supplier deliveries were faster in September.

Inventories
The Inventories Index registered 48.6 percent in September, down 2 percentage points compared to the reading of 50.6 percent in August. “Of the six big industries, three (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; and Machinery) expanded inventories in September,” says Spence. An Inventories Index greater than 44.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

Of 18 manufacturing industries, the nine reporting higher inventories in September — in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The five industries reporting lower inventories in September are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Primary Metals; and Wood Products.

Customers’ Inventories^†
ISM^®‘s Customers’ Inventories Index remained in “too low” territory in September, with a reading of 41.6 percent, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points compared to the 42.8 percent reported in August. (For more information about the Customers’ Inventories Index, see the “Data and Method of Presentation” section below.)

The two industries that reported that customers’ inventories were too high in September are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The 11 industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low in September, in order, are: Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; and Wood Products.

Prices^†
The ISM^® Prices Index registered 77.9 percent in September, 6.8 percentage points higher than the 71.1 percent reported in August and close to its level (78.3 percent in March) at the beginning of the Iran war; this reading also indicates that raw materials prices increased for the 24th straight month. Each of the six largest manufacturing industries — Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment, in that order — reported price increases in September. “The Prices Index reading is still being driven by (1) increases in steel and aluminum prices that impact the entire value chain, (2) tariffs applied to many imported goods and (3) increases in petroleum-based products as a result of the Middle East conflict. Higher prices were reported by 58.6 percent of respondents in September, up 12.4 percentage points from August’s 46.2 percent,” says Spence. A Prices Index above 52.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.

In September, the 16 industries that reported paying increased prices for raw materials, in order, are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Textile Mills; Wood Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; and Paper Products. No industries reported paying decreased prices for raw materials in September.

Backlog of Orders^†
ISM^®‘s Backlog of Orders Index registered 56.4 percent in September, an increase of 4.6 percentage points compared to the August reading of 51.8 percent. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, four (Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery) reported expansion in order backlogs in September.

The 10 industries reporting higher backlogs in September — listed in order — are: Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Wood Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; and Plastics & Rubber Products. The three industries reporting lower backlogs in September are: Textile Mills; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Chemical Products.

New Export Orders^†
ISM^®‘s New Export Orders Index remained in expansion territory in August, registering 50.9 percent, down 2.3 percentage points from August’s reading of 53.2 percent. “Among panelists’ comments, the positive-to-negative sentiment ratio was 1.2-to-1,” says Spence.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, the four that reported growth in new export orders in September are: Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The eight industries that reported a decrease in new export orders in September — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Textile Mills; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; and Paper Products. Six industries reported no change in exports.

Imports^†
ISM^®‘s Imports Index registered 51 percent in September, a 1.5-percentage point decrease compared to August’s reading of 52.5 percent.

The four industries reporting higher imports in September are: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The seven industries that reported lower volumes in September — in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Wood Products; Paper Products; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Chemical Products. Seven industries reported no change in imports in September compared to August.

^†The Supplier Deliveries, Customers’ Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

Buying Policy
The average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in September was 176 days, five days more than in August. The average lead time in September for Production Materials was 84 days, the same as in August. The average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies was 49 days, one day more than in August.

Posted: October 5, 2026

Source: Institute for Supply Management