Manufacturing PMI® At 46.9 Percent; May 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® — Apparel, Leather & Allied Products And Textile Mills Reported Contraction

TEMPE, Ariz. — June 1, 2023 — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in May for the seventh consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The May Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.9 percent, 0.2 percentage point lower than the 47.1 percent recorded in April. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a sixth month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 42.6 percent, 3.1 percentage points lower than the figure of 45.7 percent recorded in April. The Production Index reading of 51.1 percent is a 2.2-percentage point increase compared to April’s figure of 48.9 percent. The Prices Index registered 44.2 percent, down 9 percentage points compared to the April figure of 53.2 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 37.5 percent, 5.6 percentage points lower than the April reading of 43.1 percent. The Employment Index indicated another month of expansion, registering 51.4 percent, up 1.2 percentage points from April’s reading of 50.2 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index figure of 43.5 percent is 1.1 percentage points lower than the 44.6 percent recorded in April; this is the index’s lowest reading since March 2009 (43.2 percent). The Inventories Index dropped 0.5 percentage point to 45.8 percent; the April reading was 46.3 percent. The New Export Orders Index reading of 50 percent is 0.2 percentage point higher than April’s figure of 49.8 percent. The Imports Index remained in contraction territory, registering 47.3 percent, 2.6 percentage points lower the 49.9 percent reported in April.”

Fiore continues, “The U.S. manufacturing sector shrank again, with the Manufacturing PMI® losing a bit of ground compared to the previous month, indicating a faster rate of contraction. The May composite index reading reflects companies continuing to manage outputs to better match demand for the first half of 2023 and prepare for growth in the late summer/early fall period. However, there is clearly more business uncertainty in May. Demand eased again, with the (1) New Orders Index contracting at a faster rate, (2) New Export Orders Index slightly improving to 50 percent, (3) Customers’ Inventories Index persisting at the low end of ‘too high’ territory, a negative for future production and (4) Backlog of Orders Index dropping to a level not seen since the Great Recession. Output/Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) was positive, with a combined 3.4-percentage point upward impact on the Manufacturing PMI® calculation. The Employment Index expanded for the second month (and at a faster rate) after two months of contraction, and the Production Index moved back into expansion territory. Regarding employment, panelists’ comments continue to indicate near equal levels of activity toward expanding and contracting head counts at their companies, amid mixed sentiment about when significant growth will return. Inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — continue to accommodate future demand growth. The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated faster deliveries, and the Inventories Index dropped further into contraction as panelists’ companies manage inventories exposure. The Prices Index fell back into ‘decreasing’ territory (and in dramatic fashion) after one month of increasing prices. Manufacturing lead times clearly improved in the month.

“Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, only one — Transportation Equipment — registered growth in May.

“New order rates contracted further, as panelists remain concerned about when manufacturing growth will resume. Panelists’ comments again registered a 1-to-1 ratio regarding optimism for future growth and continuing near-term demand declines. Supply chains are prepared and eager for growth, as panelists’ comments and the data support reduced lead times for their companies’ more important purchases. Price instability remains and future demand is uncertain as companies continue to work down overdue deliveries and backlogs. Seventy-six percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) is contracting, up from 73 percent in April. A larger number of industries contracted strongly, as the proportion of manufacturing GDP registering a composite PMI® calculation at or below 45 percent — a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness — increasing to 31 percent in May, compared to 12 percent in April. May performance was clearly weaker compared to April,” says Fiore.

The four manufacturing industries that reported growth in May are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Transportation Equipment; and Fabricated Metal Products. The 14 industries reporting contraction in May, in the following order, are: Wood Products; Primary Metals; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Machinery.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

“Overall impact for our business is mixed. Our scientific instrumentation business continues to be weakened by lending to support capital purchasing, while services and consumables stay on track and continue to increase in some markets. Hiring has slowed in response to continued global uncertainty on inflation and unrest in Europe.” [Computer & Electronic Products]

“Demand continues to gain momentum due to new business pipelines finally yielding billable production. Personal care and home care are drivers.” [Chemical Products]

“We continue to have a strong backlog for our customer orders; however, new orders are slowing. Our supplier on-time delivery continues to be a challenge for us, and we still face price increases on a weekly basis. Labor shortages are getting better within our organization and throughout our supply chain.” [Transportation Equipment]

“Pricing seems to be becoming the primary focus of supply and sourcing teams, as customers and consumers are beginning to push back. While inflation is easing on some discretionary goods, high food costs persist across most categories.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]

“Business is returning to pre-pandemic levels. There is increased demand in commercial/government markets and reduced demand in residential/consumer markets.” [Machinery]

“Less volatility in customer demand from one month to six months out; seeing signs of slowing in the second half of 2023 and potentially into early 2024. Logistics, particularly from East Asia, continue to return to historical-level transit times; Europe and India remain elevated. Supply shortages are limited to select items only. Suppliers are still seeking price increases but are too late to be asking now.” [Fabricated Metal Products]

“Although sales are slightly lower, they are holding at current rate — soft, not catastrophic.” [Furniture & Related Products]

“Moderate increase in customer orders/demand, supplier deliveries improving, and raw material prices stable to soft.” [Plastics & Rubber Products]

“Business conditions are good, demand remains strong, and we are continuing to ramp up production to keep up.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]

“Industrial and high-tech demands are pushing out, as a slowdown is clear. This is stunting growth and currently making 2023 demand look flat to only slightly up, compared to original projections of 10-percent growth.” [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Aluminum; Copper (6); Electrical Components (7); Electronic Components (4); Labor — Temporary (2); and Steel* (4).

Commodities Down in Price
Corrugate (6); Diesel; Epoxy (2); Freight (7); Pallets; Paper; Plastic Resins (12); Polypropylene; Steel — Hot Rolled; Steel* (2); and Sulphur.

Commodities in Short Supply
Electrical Components (32); Electronic Components (30); Semiconductors (30); and Steel Based Products.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
*Indicates both up and down in price.

MAY 2023 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

Manufacturing PMI®
The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in May, as the Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.9 percent, 0.2 percentage point lower than the reading of 47.1 percent recorded in April. “This is the seventh month of contraction and continuation of a downward trend that began in June 2022. That trend is reflected in the Manufacturing PMI®’s 12-month average falling to 49.4 percent. Of the five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI®, two (Production; and Employment) are in growth territory; however, these positive gains were offset by larger losses in the other three (New Orders, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories). Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, only one (Transportation Equipment) registered growth in May. The New Orders Index logged a ninth month in contraction territory. Like in April, three of the 10 subindexes were above 50 percent for the period,” says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the May Manufacturing PMI® indicates the overall economy contracted in May for a sixth consecutive month after 30 straight months of expansion. “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the May reading (46.9 percent) corresponds to a change of minus-0.6 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” says Fiore.

THE LAST 12 MONTHS

New Orders
ISM®’s New Orders Index contracted for the ninth consecutive month in May, registering 42.6 percent, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points compared to April’s reading of 45.7 percent. “Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, none reported increased new orders. New orders contraction quickened as panelists’ companies continue to experience uncertainty regarding future customer demand,” says Fiore. A New Orders Index above 52.7 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The three manufacturing industries that reported growth in new orders in May are: Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. Twelve industries reported a decline in new orders in May, in the following order: Wood Products; Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Transportation Equipment.

Production
The Production Index registered 51.1 percent in May, 2.2 percentage points higher than the April reading of 48.9 percent, indicating a return to expansion after five consecutive months in contraction. “Of the top six industries, three — Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; and Transportation Equipment — expanded in May. The index signaled the best production performance since October 2022, when it registered 51.9 percent. A return to expansion in the Production Index continues to support manufacturing executives’ strategy to stretch out output during the first half of 2023, as panelists’ companies attempt to retain sufficient workers to prepare for better second-half performance. But with the large-scale contraction of backlogs and the absence of new orders, it is unclear how long companies can continue to retain workers,” says Fiore. An index above 52.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.

The seven industries reporting growth in production during the month of May are, in order: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; and Transportation Equipment. The seven industries reporting a decrease in production in May — in the following order —are: Textile Mills; Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary Metals; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.

Employment
ISM®’s Employment Index registered 51.4 percent in May, 1.2 percentage points higher than the April reading of 50.2 percent. “The index indicated employment expanded again after two months of contraction. Of the six big manufacturing sectors, two (Transportation Equipment; and Machinery) expanded. For the third straight month, labor management sentiment at panelists’ companies reflects near parity between hiring and reducing staff,” says Fiore. An Employment Index above 50.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of 18 manufacturing industries, five reported employment growth in May: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Fabricated Metal Products. The four industries reporting a decrease in employment in May are: Textile Mills; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. Nine industries reported no change in employment.

Supplier Deliveries†
The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was faster for the eighth straight month in May, as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 43.5 percent, 1.1 percentage points lower than the 44.6 percent reported in April. This month’s reading indicates the fastest supplier delivery performance since March 2009, when the index registered 43.2 percent. Of the top six manufacturing industries, only Transportation Equipment reported slower deliveries. “Panelists’ comments continue to indicate that suppliers have excess capacity to meet all of their customers’ current demand forecasts,” says Fiore. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

Two of 18 manufacturing industries reported slower supplier deliveries in May: Textile Mills; and Transportation Equipment. The 13 industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in May as compared to April — in the following order — are: Paper Products; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Wood Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Machinery.

Inventories
The Inventories Index registered 45.8 percent in May, 0.5 percentage point lower than the 46.3 percent reported for April. “Manufacturing inventories contracted at a faster rate compared to April. Of the six big industries, none increased manufacturing inventories in May. Manufacturing inventories continue to be managed down by panelists’ companies in preparation for lower production output. The index recorded its lowest level since August 2020 (44.9 percent), which was at the beginning of the pandemic recovery period,” says Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 44.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

Of 18 manufacturing industries, the two reporting higher inventories in May are: Textile Mills; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The 11 industries reporting contracting inventories in May — in the following order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Chemical Products; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; and Computer & Electronic Products.

Customers’ Inventories†
ISM®’s Customers’ Inventories Index registered 51.4 percent in May, 0.1 percentage point higher than the 51.3 percent reported for April. “Customers’ inventory levels continue in the low end of the ‘too high’ level as panelists report their companies’ customers have again signaled suppliers to deliver less material in the future. Customers’ inventories continue another month at levels likely not conducive to future output growth,” says Fiore.

The eight industries reporting customers’ inventories as too high in May are, in order: Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Petroleum & Coal Products; Wood Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Transportation Equipment. The four industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low in May are: Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; and Chemical Products. Six industries reported no change in customers’ inventories in May.

Prices†
The ISM® Prices Index registered 44.2 percent, 9 percentage points lower compared to the April reading of 53.2 percent, indicating raw materials prices decreased in May. The index fell dramatically back into contraction (or “decreasing”) territory after one month in expansion. “Panelists’ comments support a more balanced supplier-buyer relationship, as sellers are more concerned about filling order books to support their backlogs. Of the top six manufacturing industries, three (Machinery; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Transportation Equipment) reported price increases in May. Eighty-five percent of panelists’ companies reported ‘same’ or ‘lower’ prices in May, compared to 74 percent in April,” says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.9 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.

In May, five industries reported paying increased prices for raw materials: Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Transportation Equipment. The 10 industries reporting paying decreased prices for raw materials in May — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Primary Metals; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

Backlog of Orders†
ISM®’s Backlog of Orders Index registered 37.5 percent in May, a notable 5.6-percentage point decrease compared to April’s reading of 43.1 percent, indicating order backlogs contracted (faster) for the eighth consecutive month after a 27-month period of expansion. Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, none expanded order backlogs in May. “The index remains in strong contraction as factories continue to work backlogs down amid weak new order levels, resulting in more companies reporting low backlogs. The index recorded its lowest level since February 2009, when it registered 33.6 percent,” says Fiore.

No industries reported growth in order backlogs in May. Twelve industries reported lower backlogs in May, in the following order: Paper Products; Wood Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; and Machinery.

New Export Orders†
ISM®’s New Export Orders Index registered 50 percent in May, 0.2 percentage point higher than the April reading of 49.8 percent. “The New Export Orders Index indicated that export orders were unchanged in May after nine consecutive months in contraction territory preceded by 25 straight months of expansion. Comments supported the unexpected positive performance in order levels from China and Europe, but as was the case in April, activity remains weak,” says Fiore.

Five industries reported growth in new export orders in May: Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Transportation Equipment. The five industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in May are: Wood Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. Seven industries reported no change in exports in May compared to April.

Imports†
ISM®’s Imports Index registered 47.3 percent in May, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points compared to April’s figure of 49.9 percent. “The index contracted in May for the seventh consecutive month following a five-month period of expansion, at a faster pace. Panelists’ comments continue to indicate that the index reading reflects sluggish demand,” says Fiore.

The two industries reporting an increase in import volumes in May are: Petroleum & Coal Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The 11 industries that reported lower volumes of imports in May — listed in the following order — are: Wood Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Machinery.

†The Supplier Deliveries, Customers’ Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

Buying Policy
The average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in May was 172 days, an increase of two days compared to April. Average lead time in May for Production Materials was 84 days, a decrease of six days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies was 45 days, a decrease of one day from April.

Posted: June 2, 2023

Source: Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®)